ISTANBUL

2025 is almost certain to be one of the three hottest years on record, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, the EU's satellite monitoring system, announced on Thursday.

According to the service's monthly temperature analysis, October was the third-hottest October globally on record, with an average temperature of 15.14C (59F).

This was 0.70C (1.26F) higher than the 1991-2020 average.

Last month’s global average temperature was also 1.55C (2.79F) higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).

This marks the first time since this April that the global temperature anomaly in a month exceeded 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.

However, October 2025 was 0.16C (0.29F) cooler than the record-breaking October of 2023, which remains the hottest October ever recorded.

The 12-month period from November 2024 to October 2025 showed an average temperature 0.62C (1.12F) above the 1991-2020 average and 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.

Following these temperature readings, it is now almost certain that 2025 will rank as the second- or third-hottest year on record, expected to be at or just below the level of 2023, which currently stands as the second hottest year.

2024 remains the hottest year ever recorded.

Although the average temperature rise in 2025 may not exceed 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels, it is projected that the 2023-2025 period will surpass this threshold.

This would mark the first time in recorded history that a three-year average has reached such a high level.

Under the Paris Agreement, countries have pledged to limit global warming to well below 2C (3.6F), and ideally to 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels.

A report released last week by the UN Environment Program (UNEP) also warned that the global multi-year average temperature is at risk of exceeding the 1.5C threshold within the next decade.