BRUSSELS

Belgium's economy, public health and national security face mounting threats from climate change unless the country urgently steps up adaptation measures, according to a major risk assessment released Thursday by the climate institute Cerac.

The Belgian Climate Risk Assessment (BRCA) warns that without additional action, Belgium will face thousands of heat-related deaths, repeated infrastructure damage, disruptions to food and water supplies, and a greater likelihood of pandemics driven by exotic mosquito species.

"The question is no longer if climate disasters will happen, but when and how we will respond. This demands a shift in mindset in which climate change is considered a fundamental and society-wide threat for national security," the report said.

Cerac urged Belgian authorities to adopt a consistent and nationwide adaptation policy to address the cross-sectoral risks posed by climate change.

Vulnerable groups at highest risk

According to the report, the elderly, low-income groups, farmers, and urban populations will be the first to feel the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme weather. But Cerac underlined that the effects will ultimately reach all segments of society.

Health-related risks are expected to surge, with more than 1,000 additional heat-related deaths annually even under the most favorable scenario.

Increasing temperatures will also worsen allergies, air pollution, and mental health problems. Diseases such as avian flu, bluetongue, dengue and chikungunya are expected to appear more frequently.

Public debt could grow by 15%

The study paints a bleak picture for Belgium's economy. The 2021 floods in Wallonia and Limburg caused an estimated €5.2 billion ($5.9 billion) in damage, and similar events could become more frequent as temperatures rise.

If current policies remain unchanged, Cerac projects that public debt could grow by 15% by 2050, requiring fiscal adjustments equivalent to 1.4% of GDP.

The report warned that with climate-related claims rising sharply, reinsurers could withdraw from the Belgian market, making insurance unaffordable or inaccessible for households and businesses.

Water shortage, food supply

Belgium will also face increasing water scarcity, a development that threatens core economic sectors including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and tourism.

Agriculture could suffer annual losses running into tens of millions of euros, putting pressure on employment in rural areas and raising concerns over long-term food security.

Cerac called for a "sustainable transformation" of farming practices to protect production.