Venezuela's oil production is unlikely to be directly hit by recent US military action, but growing geopolitical uncertainty could disrupt exports, especially to China, and further dampen already weak investment sentiment, analysts say.
On Jan. 3, the US carried out a large-scale attack against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
"We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," US President Donald Trump said following the raid.
The intervention appeared to focus on military targets rather than energy infrastructure, Ignacio Urbasos, a fellow in the Energy and Climate Program at Madrid-based Elcano Royal Institute, told Anadolu.
On Tuesday, Trump noted that interim authorities in Venezuela had agreed to transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US to be sold at market price.
"This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!" Trump said in a statement via his social media company Truth Social.
According to Urbasos, there is no evidence so far of damage to oil fields, facilities, or core infrastructure. "Production constraints remain structural rather than security-driven. The main impact is geopolitical uncertainty rather than physical disruption."
Still, he warned that some short-term disruption to Venezuelan crude exports could emerge in the coming weeks, particularly in shipments bound for China.
"Chinese buyers may temporarily delay payments or cargoes as they adopt a wait-and-see approach," he explained. "This could result in Venezuelan crude remaining 'on the water' until the geopolitical situation becomes clearer."
- Oil companies await clarity on sanctions
Urbasos said the most vulnerable points are financial and logistical rather than operational.
"China is likely among the main near-term losers, as the US may seek to reduce discounted Venezuelan oil flows to China that have largely moved through opaque trading routes," he added.
Urbasos noted that the near-term investment outlook in the country remains weak. "Oil companies are likely to postpone decisions until there is clarity on sanctions, US–Venezuela negotiations, and the broader political trajectory."
Highlighting that Venezuela's oil sector needs large capital injections, and that political risk remains high, he said: "A meaningful recovery in investment would depend on a clear political transition, legal security, and institutional reform—none of which are guaranteed in the short term."
Recent security developments do not materially change Venezuela's current role in global oil markets, he said, adding despite vast reserves, output remains limited.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, Venezuela held about 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in 2023, accounting for roughly 17% of the global total. Much of those reserves are located in the Orinoco Belt and consist of extra-heavy crude, making production technically complex and costly.
As a result, Venezuela accounted for only about 0.8% of global crude oil production in 2023, with daily output standing at around 742,000 barrels, a decline of roughly 70% compared with 2013 levels.
Data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows Venezuela is followed in proven reserves by Saudi Arabia with about 267 billion barrels, Iran with 209 billion barrels, Iraq with 145 billion barrels and Kuwait with 102 billion barrels.
"Over the long term, Venezuela could regain significance—potentially up to around 4 million barrel per day—but only under a very positive scenario involving political stabilization, reduced corruption, regulatory certainty, and the return of skilled human capital," he explained. "Until then, Venezuela remains a constrained heavy-crude supplier rather than a major global swing producer."
- 'Future of oil markets is intrinsically linked to geopolitics'
Francesco Sassi, a political scientist at the University of Oslo, told Anadolu that Venezuela's oil production and exports remain strategic military targets which could be involved in further actions in the hours and weeks ahead in case the situation will not stabilize.
Once the largest buyer of Venezuelan crude, the US was replaced by China after sanctions were imposed. As Washington increased pressure on the Venezuelan government by restricting oil exports, Trump said on Dec. 16 that all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela would face a "full and complete blockade," citing allegations that oil revenues were financing drug-related terrorism.
Given that the world's largest oil reserves are located in Venezuela, energy will play a key role in shaping the conflict's strategic implications and the future of the regime, Sassi said.
He said he does not expect an extreme surge in oil prices in the near term, pointing to ample global crude supply. "Still, military tensions will become crucial in determining additional instability and will pose an upward pressure on global oil prices," he warned.
On Venezuela's role in global oil markets, he said: "It is too early to say what's coming for Venezuela's oil in 2026."
"What could be said now is that energy geopolitics confirms itself as a crucial issue to understand political developments also in 2026 and the future of oil markets is intrinsically linked to geopolitics," he added.
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
