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Oil prices up due to positive market perception: Experts

-Markets welcome OPEC+ decision to gradually increase production as move perceived as ‘demand recovery’, not 'output rise’

home > Oil, Finance, World 05.04.2021 12:39

Oil prices up due to positive market perception: Experts

Rising oil prices seen in the wake of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting can be attributed to the market’s “positive perception” of the decision rather than the decision itself, experts say.

The 23-members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, held the 15th Ministerial Meeting on Thursday and agreed to gradually ease the current production cuts by increasing approximately 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) up to the end of July.

The group is currently reducing its production by 7.9 billion bpd, including an additional 1 million bpd cut by Saudi Arabia.

With the new output quota, Saudi Arabia’s voluntary cut announced in February will be incrementally phased out while Russia and Kazakhstan, which were allowed to increase their production due to seasonal reasons, will be included in the new output cuts from May.

Although a "cautious approach" from pandemic-induced uncertainties marked the meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the market was short of about 2 million bpd of production cuts, which signaled a rising tendency among the group for higher production levels.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman underlined "cautiousness" and also said the market has to test its psychological barrier to "see how things may turn out."

The oil markets, however, had been expecting at least a two-month rollover of the current production levels after the expected recovery in oil demand was delayed due to the third COVID-19 wave that continues to grip most of Europe.

By the time the meeting ended, Brent reached $65.16 per barrel for a 3.85% increase and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $61.74 per barrel at the same time for a rise of 4.36%.


- Decision perceived as recovery sign

Normally, increased production should lead to lower prices, in line with the rules of supply and demand. However, experts attribute the apparent contradiction to the fact that the markets perceived the decision as a signal of recovery.

OPEC+ is trying to keep the market under its control, Julien Mathonniere, oil markets economist at Energy Intelligence Group, told Anadolu Agency.

“As a financial investor said a couple of days ago, this OPEC meeting is like a Keynesian beauty contest,” Mathonniere said, citing a concept developed by British economist John Maynard Keynes to explain price fluctuations in equity markets, the view being that much of investment is driven by expectations about what other investors think, rather than expectations about the fundamental profitability of a particular investment.​​​​​​​

“What matters is not what OPEC is actually doing, but rather what traders think OPEC is doing, or better what traders think that other traders think OPEC is doing,” he said, explaining that the group’s expectations affect prices, even if OPEC is not really doing much.

Mathonniere believes that OPEC needs to keep the oil price structure in backwardation.

“That is, the price of oil for immediate delivery must be higher than the price for future delivery, say in three, six, or twelve months from now because if the spot price for immediate delivery is higher than future prices, it draws oil out of storage and helps global stocks to decrease, which in turn supports refiners' margins.”


- ‘Effects of decision need to be well understood’

Kevin Birn, chief analyst of Canadian oil markets for consultancy IHS Markit said while concerns remain around the demand impact from the resurgence of variants of COVID-19, growing optimism around the vaccination campaigns and the expectation over the pace of oil demand recovery has intensified.

“Against this backdrop, increasing output will help moderate the expectations around the price of oil which had escalated over the past several weeks,” Birn said.


-‘Once again, OPEC+ has taken everyone by surprise’

Ian Simm, the principal advisor at consultancy IGM Energy, reiterated that the oil markets viewed the group’s decision as unexpected.

“What is striking though is that the market has barely moved. Perhaps, as Prince Abdulaziz said, traders are considering the 30 days to go until the restrictions begin to ease, however, it is more likely that the view is that the increased production levels will be consumed locally,” Simm said.

He stressed that in Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, domestic crude burn ramps up over summer months to fuel the growing demand for air-conditioning.

“In addition, Saudi stocks have been drawn down as it sought to more or less maintain exports despite cutting production, so these can be refilled, meaning that the impact on physical markets would be negligible,” he added.

By Sibel Morrow

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr​​​​​​​


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- Despite weaker-than-expected demand in China, India and Brazil in recent months, all of 600,000 bpd annual growth in 2nd quarter of 2025 came from non-OECD countries
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India's oil import bill set to soar as US tariffs pressure Russian crude purchases

- Full halt to Russian imports is improbable in near term however refiners are expected to gradually diversify supply, according to Kpler analyst
15.08.2025 Oil , Finance

US energy agency revises down Brent price forecast for 2025

- International benchmark Brent crude estimated to average $67.22 per barrel
13.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices dip on crude build forecast and uncertainty over Russia-US talks

- The American Petroleum Institute forecasts over a 1.5 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories for week ending Aug. 8
13.08.2025 Oil

OPEC crude oil production up by 263,000 barrels per day in July 2025

- OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged
13.08.2025 Oil

Oil edges up amid tariff delay, uncertainty over Russia-US talks

- US inflation above Fed's 2% target limits price gains
13.08.2025 Oil

'Necessary to limit export of Russian oil,' Zelenskyy tells India's Modi

- New Delhi faces 50% US tariffs over purchases of Russian oil
13.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices extend losses ahead of US-Russia talks on Ukraine war

- Upcoming talks raise hopes that sanctions restricting Russian oil exports might be eased
12.08.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 1 for week ending Aug. 8

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 49 compared to one year ago
09.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices post weekly loss on tariff worries, easing geopolitical tensions

- Concerns over global demand, US tariffs, and easing geopolitical risks weigh on market sentiment
09.08.2025 Oil

Russia's oil exports shift towards Asia: EIA

- China remains largest importer of Russia's crude oil
08.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices fall on tariff worries, weak demand outlook

- Expanding US trade tariffs, OPEC+ supply increase weigh on market
08.08.2025 Oil

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline ships 4.6B barrels of oil to Türkiye since 2006

- Around 106 million barrels transported in first half of 2025, bp says
08.08.2025 Oil

Russia's gasoline export ban aims to stabilize domestic market amid supply strain

- Ban driven by seasonal demand, refinery disruptions, rising prices, and tightening regulations, says expert
12.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices rise on new US tariffs, Fed rate cuts, falling inventories

- Markets expect a rate cut by September, as US Fed boosts global risk appetite
08.08.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories down by 0.7% for week ending Aug. 1

- Daily crude oil production falls to around 13.28 million barrels per day
07.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices rise as Trump threatens tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases

- Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrives in Moscow to discuss ongoing Russia-Ukraine war
06.08.2025 Oil

Saudi Aramco's Q2 profit drops 22% on lower oil prices

- Company posts $22.67B in net income, down from $29.07B in same period last year
05.08.2025 Oil

ExxonMobil signs MoU with Libya’s NOC after decade-long hiatus

- MoU will see ExxonMobil conduct detailed technical study of four offshore blocks located near northwest coast and Sirte Basin
07.08.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Diplomacy , International Relations , Energy Projects

Oil prices rise amid expectations of US Fed rate cut in September

- Market sentiment boosted by signs of weakening labor market and possible monetary easing
06.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices up on OPEC+ output hike, US-Russia tensions

- Prices edge higher after 8 OPEC+ members agree to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September from August levels
05.08.2025 Oil

OPEC+'s 8 members to increase output by 547,000 bpd in September

- Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman to raise production as part of gradual rollback of earlier voluntary cuts, OPEC statement says
04.08.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 5 for week ending Aug. 1

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 72 compared to one year ago
04.08.2025 Oil

Oil prices post weekly gains on supply concerns, trade uncertainty

- Brent crude edges higher on US-EU trade deal and sanctions risk
01.08.2025 Oil

Oil declines as global risk sentiment rises, US tariffs spark market volatility

- Trump's new tariffs and sanctions raise global risk, pressuring markets and fueling oil supply concerns
02.08.2025 Oil

US-Canada energy trade totals $150 billion last year amid price decline: EIA

- US crude oil and natural gas imports from Canada increased by 5% and 7%, respectively
02.08.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Diplomacy

US crude oil inventories up by 1.8% for week ending July 25

- Daily crude oil production rises to around 13.31 million barrels per day
01.08.2025 Oil

Türkiye discovers $4B worth of oil reserves in 2025: Energy minister

- 57 million barrels of oil found in eastern and southern regions, including shale oil and gas in Diyarbakir
31.07.2025 Oil

Oil prices dip amid Trump’s Russia comments, US inventory build

- Caution ahead of US Fed rate decision also weighs on market
31.07.2025 Oil

Türkiye's Energy Minister to attend Anadolu's Editor's Desk on July 30

- Bayraktar to outline national energy policy and comment on current energy topics
30.07.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Finance , Energy Diplomacy , General

US onshore crude oil production hits record high: EIA

- Crude oil production from onshore federal lands nearly triple over last decade, data shows
29.07.2025 Oil

Oil prices slip as markets eye Fed decision, weigh US-EU trade deal

- Easing trade tensions offers some relief, but uncertainty over economic fallout from tariffs continues to weigh on investor sentiment
30.07.2025 Oil

Türkiye's LPG production up 29.1% in May

- LPG imports decrease by 14%, while exports rise by 90.8% in May, latest industry report reveals
29.07.2025 Oil

Türkiye's oil imports down 10.4% in May

- Crude oil imports fall by 13.2% to 2.48 million tons in May, latest data shows
29.07.2025 Oil

Oil prices rise on US-EU trade deal, Fed rate uncertainty

- US-EU deal could boost economic activity and lift energy demand, adding upward pressure on oil prices, according to analysts
29.07.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 7 for week ending July 25

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 67 compared to one year ago
28.07.2025 Oil
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