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ANALYSIS - Moscow’s oil pipeline diplomacy

- Russia’s prime concern for the creation of considerable oil and gas surplus pipeline capacity is more economically based

home > Oil, Energy Diplomacy, Eurasia 15.08.2018 12:43

ANALYSIS - Moscow’s oil pipeline diplomacy

Following the collapse of the U.S.S.R., Russia responded to new oil market realities through the formation of substantial surplus pipeline capacity in the belief that this would enhance energy security, broaden its market share in Europe, and minimize transit risks over the long term. However, policymakers are concerned that most energy exports have to transit through former Russian sovereign territories that Russia still has difficult relations with. Nonetheless, Russia’s prime concern for the creation of considerable oil and gas surplus pipeline capacity is more economically based.

Over the last two decades, excess capacity from newly built pipelines is not so much a temporary phenomenon as a reflection of Russia’s long-term energy export strategy. Over the last few decades, this surplus capacity has allowed Russia to maneuver between oil pipeline routes for natural gas transit and the excess capacity allowed for a stronger bargaining position.

In general, oil and gas pipeline operators prefer to operate at full capacity to maximize revenue gains as losses are likely with underutilization. When throughput does not run at full capacity, minimal transit risks could arise but it also ensures greater flexibility for alternative sources for optimal exportation. Therefore, having considerable surplus capacity can play a vital role by ensuring more transit options through multiple countries, which in turn could lower transit tariffs.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Russia exported approximately 5.2 million barrels of oil per day in 2017, up from 5.08 million and 4.89 million barrels per day in 2016 and 2015, respectively. Nearly 36 percent of Russia’s federal budget revenue comes from crude exportation and represented roughly 70 percent of crude sold to the European market back in 2017.

Russia’s crude exports are handled through mainly five main pipelines, namely: the Druzhba, the Baltic Pipeline (BPS 1 and BPS 2), the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean (ESPO) and lastly, the Novorossiysk. Almost 90 percent of crude oil is exported through Transneft, the national oil pipeline operator. Although Russia is legally allowed to build oil pipelines for companies other than the national pipeline operator, Transneft still dominates this market, and in fact, the operation of proposed pipelines other than Transneft has faced aggressive resistance.

Ukraine, the Baltic Republics and Kazakhstan can offer additional, economically viable capacity for Russia. While Kazakhstan’s link can allocate over 10 million tonnes, the Baltics and Ukraine can offer an additional 15 million tonnes and 20 million tonnes, respectively.

Among the various alternatives, Ukraine has considerable surplus capacity that it can offer Russia for greater flexibility. The Ukrainian oil pipeline operator, Naftogaz states that their export capacity is about 56 million tonnes, from which only one fourth has been used since 2014. Much of this excessive spare capacity is as a result of Russia’s aim to gradually redirect exports to the Baltics lines while minimizing Ukraine’s significance in their export portfolio. Furthermore, the extent to which Ukrainian excessive capacity will be used in the years ahead will very much depend on Russia’s decision on whether it will bypass Ukraine as a major transit country.

Crude transported through Ukraine has been in decline for over a decade. Although one of Russia’s most important oil pipelines and one of the world’s biggest, the Druzhba pipeline, still continues to serve, Russia could eliminate this route altogether within a short period of time with the current surpluses. But the commercial attractiveness of this pipeline makes this route quite unique, and clearly explains why Russia still insists on using it despite major clashes between Kiev and Moscow.

In 2001, pipelines that were built and launched under the Baltic Pipeline 1 aimed at bypassing the Baltic republics. In 2008, as a continuation of Russia’s plan to bypass neighboring countries over mounting disagreements, Russia built the second phase of the Baltic Pipeline bypassing Belarus. Consequently, Russia’s crude oil diversification policy over transportation routes has caused major financial setbacks for the Baltics and for Belarus.

The Baltic pipeline, the Ukraine-linked pipeline, as well as crude exports through the Black Sea route have been in gradual decline over the years while the Asia-linked ESPO pipeline has operated at full capacity since 2010. In 2015, the Russian Ministry of Energy recognized the considerable surplus capacity presence that stood at 65 percent over previous years.

Russia is expected to further invest in oil infrastructure as a means of expanding its role in the Asian crude market. Given Russia’s history of poor investments in its oil and gas sector, some experts believe Russia has heavily invested in pipelines to reinvigorate pipe manufacturing and steel production to prop up its job market.

Apart from the ESPO pipeline, which is expected to reach a maximum of 80 million tonnes by 2019, the other remaining pipeline routes will be utilized at a much lower capacity. Transneft’s investment portfolio suggests that no current investments are on the agenda until early 2020. Once the ESPO pipeline reaches 80 million tonnes, Russia’s total crude export capacity is expected to reach approximately 340 million tonnes.

A geographic shift in energy demand has been the major reason for Russia’s desire to expand its market towards the East. Expansion here and in China, in particular, has intensified economic ties between the two big partners, allowing further flexibility for both countries in their oil diversification policies.

By diversifying its export routes, boosting surplus capacity while supported by a fully integrated pipeline network, Russia is allowed the flexibility it seeks with greater ability to direct oil flows. The motivation behind building up substantial surplus capacity is to cater to Russia’s desire to reduce its dependence on any transit route country. Russia’s recent new pipeline ventures can be explained through the flexibility it can derive from bypassing any transit country with the help of surplus capacity, as well as the desire to expand its market share, both in Europe and Asia, by gaining better competitive advantages in the region.


By Ersin Merdan

- The Writer holds an MSc in Eurasian Political Economy & Energy from King’s College London and also an MA in European Studies from Sabancı University.

- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr


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Oil rises on US inventory drop, geopolitical tensions, and Fed rate decision

- Markets brace for potential supply shock amid US stock decline and regional unrest
19.06.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories down by 2.7% for week ending June 13

- Daily crude oil production increased to around 13.43 million barrels per day
19.06.2025 Oil

Oil slumps as ceasefire hopes ease supply fears, macroeconomic uncertainties weigh on demand

- US' reported 60-day ceasefire offer in Gaza Strip and a potential prisoner exchange deal with Hamas, helps reduce geopolitical risk premiums
19.06.2025 Oil

Israeli attacks on Iran’s energy facilities to impact oil prices, Qatar warns

- Doha calls for return to US-Iran nuclear talks to avoid further instability
18.06.2025 Oil

IEA revises down global oil demand growth forecast

-Global oil demand is expected to reach 103.76 million bpd this year, representing an increase of about 720,000 bpd compared to last year, according to the IEA's Oil Market Report
18.06.2025 Oil

IEA: Oil markets face structural shift as supply and demand dynamics evolve

- Oil trends show 'remarkable double act' with US driving 90% of global supply growth and China accounting for 60% of demand growth over the past decade, 'but these dynamics are shifting,' says IEA chief
17.06.2025 Oil

Oil prices climb as Iran-Israel tensions raise supply fears

- Prices fall to $69.96 on Monday on signs of de-escalation but rebound after US president called for evacuating Tehran
17.06.2025 Oil

Airline stocks fall sharply on rising oil prices

- Concerns about higher fuel costs, which account for large portion of airlines' operating costs, drive significant decline in airline stocks amid ongoing tensions in Middle East
17.06.2025 Oil

XRG consortium makes non-binding takeover offer for Australia's Santos

- Santos announces that on June 13 it received a non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium led by XRG
17.06.2025 Oil

OPEC daily crude output up 0.7% in May

- Global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 1.29 million barrels per day
18.06.2025 Oil

Oil prices rise as Israel-Iran tensions stoke supply fears

- Escalating hostilities reinforce expectations of potential oil supply disruptions and heighten concerns over security of Strait of Hormuz, key chokepoint for global energy trade
17.06.2025 Oil

Iranian missiles damage oil refinery in northern Israel

- Missiles hit Bazan oil refinery complex in Haifa, causing damage to pipelines, transmission lines, operator says
16.06.2025 Oil

Iranian Revolutionary Guards says it targeted Israeli energy facilities in retaliatory strikes

- Iranian attacks to continue 'more severely and extensively' if Israeli attacks persist, warns Revolutionary Guard Corps
16.06.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 3 for week ending June 13

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 49 compared to one year ago
14.06.2025 Oil

Key trade route Strait of Hormuz under market watch after Israeli attacks on Iran

- Around one-third of global oil, 20% of LNG trade pass through Strait of Hormuz, making its potential closure due to possible wider conflict in region detrimental to Iran’s trade, market prices
14.06.2025 Oil

OPEC urges caution amid Mideast tensions

- Group affirms there are currently no developments in supply or market dynamics that warrant unnecessary measures
14.06.2025 Oil

IEA: Oil supplies stable for now, but we're ready to act if needed

- IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol: "The IEA oil security system has over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency stocks"
13.06.2025 Oil

Oil set for second weekly gain on Israeli airstrikes, stronger demand outlook

- Prices reach highest levels in nearly five months following Israeli attack on key Iranian military and nuclear sites
14.06.2025 Oil

Brent oil surges more than %7 following Israel's strikes on Iran

- Oil prices hit their highest in almost five months after Israel struck Iran
13.06.2025 Oil

Oil falls as US-Iran diplomacy hopes offset Mideast tensions

- Amid ongoing concern over potential supply disruptions due to rising tensions in Middle East, optimism grows over possible direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran
13.06.2025 Oil

Japan resumes Russian crude oil imports after over 2-year hiatus: Report

- Sanctioned vessel, Voyager, delivered crude to Taiyo Oil refinery on June 8
13.06.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories down by 0.8% for week ending June 6

- Daily crude oil production increased to around 13.42 million barrels per day
12.06.2025 Oil

US energy agency slightly revises up Brent price forecast for 2025

- International benchmark Brent crude estimated to average $65.97 per barrel
12.06.2025 Oil , Energy Projects

Oil prices edge up on US-China trade hopes amid market caution

- Oil prices rise slightly on optimism over US-China trade deal, tempered by market caution and uncertain details
12.06.2025 Oil

Russia extends oil and products export ban until end of year

- Decision to prohibit oil and petroleum products export to parties complying with Western price cap prolonged until Dec. 31, 2025
11.06.2025 Oil , Energy Diplomacy

Oil prices edge down amid renewed optimism over US-China trade talks

-US-China trade talks, launched Monday in London, draws global investor attention as world's two largest economies seek solution to trade tensions
10.06.2025 Oil

Brent crude falls below $66 on China data, OPEC+ output plans

- Oil markets under pressure from trade tensions, ahead of US jobs data
10.06.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 9 for week ending June 6

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 50 compared to one year ago
07.06.2025 Oil

Oil prices end week higher on Ukraine-Russia tensions, falling US inventories, and trade hopes

- Oil posts strong weekly gain as geopolitical risk rises, inventories fall, and rate cut hopes lift sentiment
08.06.2025 Oil

Brent crude dips slightly on demand worries, geopolitical uncertainty

- Oil prices see limited movement as weak economic data from the US and China weigh on demand outlook, while geopolitical tensions keep markets on edge
06.06.2025 Oil

Oil prices edge higher amid Fed policy uncertainty, trade talks in focus

- Market sentiment is buoyed by rising expectations that Fed can deliver its first rate cut as early as July
06.06.2025 Oil

US crude oil inventories down by 1% for week ending May 30

- Daily crude oil production increased to around 13.41 million barrels per day
09.06.2025 Oil

Oil slips on trade uncertainty, OPEC+ output hike

- US President Trump's signs executive order doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, reigniting concerns over global economic growth
05.06.2025 Oil

bp assumes operatorship of Karabakh Oil Project in Caspian Sea

- Under deal, bp acquires 35% stake in both RSA and PSA, with SOCAR retaining remaining 65%
04.06.2025 Oil

Oil prices edge lower over demand worries triggered by Trump's trade policies

- Key US labor market data, seen as gauge of economic momentum, under close investor scrutiny
04.06.2025 Oil

Türkiye, Azerbaijan to sign new deal to boost oil, gas production in Azerbaijan

- Shafag-Asiman Production Sharing Agreement to form another partnership between Turkish Petroleum, SOCAR, and bp, says Alparslan Bayraktar
04.06.2025 Natural Gas , Oil , Energy Diplomacy

Oil rises as Ukraine strikes Russian bases ahead of Istanbul peace talks

- Prospect of new US sanctions against Russia is deepening supply concerns and pushing oil prices higher
03.06.2025 Oil

OPEC+ members agree to 411,000 output rise in July

- Eight OPEC+ nations will boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, compared to June levels, as part of plan to gradually unwind voluntary output cuts
02.06.2025 Oil

US oil rig count down by 4 for week ending May 30

- Number of US oil rigs fall by 35 compared to one year ago
31.05.2025 Oil

Oil prices set for weekly drop with possibility of OPEC+ output hike

- Eight-member coalition of OPEC+ group—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman— are set to meet on Saturday
31.05.2025 Oil
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