US-China trade talks in Geneva mark key step toward easing tariff war: Expert

ISTANBUL

The US and China are holding high-level trade talks in Switzerland on Saturday in a bid to ease the escalating trade tensions fueled by mutual high tariffs, an expert told Anadolu, who emphasizes that this represents a significant opportunity for global trade and that "ending the tariff war will be a lengthy process."

Rahmi Incekara, assistant professor of economics at Bahcesehir University in Istanbul, said the US and China’s willingness to “resume diplomacy" while considering China's interests as well as the demands of US industry and consumers is "a significant development."

The high-level trade meeting between the US and China in Geneva will be the leaders' first official face-to-face contact since US President Donald Trump imposed a 145% tariff on China in April.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the US delegation, while Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent the Chinese side. Tariff reductions and trade rebalancing will be at the top of the agenda of talks.

The high-level trade talks are taking place at the request of Washington, according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which stated that the US needs to present concrete and fair proposals, as the country’s tariffs have been damaging global trade.

Analysts say that the world’s two largest economies are officially seeking some common ground to ease trade tensions, while investors turn to more high-risk assets.

Incekara stated that Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs disrupted supply chains and financial markets, leading to concerns of a sharp decline in global economic growth, with China being the most affected.

“China responded with its own tariffs after Trump announced ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs on April 2, and since then, the two countries have been mutually increasing tariffs on each other,” he said.

“The US’ tariffs on China are currently 145%, and China’s tariffs on the US are 125%.”

“The US corporations began to cancel orders to China, delay expansion plans, and take precautionary measures because of the tariff war—the cost of the tariffs will certainly be reflected as higher prices in automobiles, agriculture, housing, and other goods for end-consumers,” he noted.

“Higher prices are already becoming a burden to US consumers, who are in the middle of the country’s biggest economic downturn since the pandemic.”

Incekara emphasized that Trump’s tariffs on China still came as a shock despite the Chinese economy’s 5.4% growth in the first quarter.

“These figures exceeded estimates, but the growth data covers the period before the US raised tariffs on Chinese products from 10% to 145%,” he said.

“Part of the growth may be because factories were boosting exports before the tariffs came in,” he added.

Incekara stated that Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s statements on tariffs on China portrayed a more “moderate” stance after Bessent said the tariff war “isn’t sustainable” and Greer said the tariffs were intended to fix the US economy and grab a larger share of gross domestic product (GDP) in manufacturing.

“This will be the first face-to-face contact between senior US and Chinese officials since Trump took office, and it poses an important opportunity to discuss lifting some tariffs and drawing up a future roadmap,” he said.

“The talks are expected to cover tariffs on specific products, export controls, and Trump’s decision to end minimum exemptions on low-value imports.”