ANKARA

The Turkish economy is entering the new year with announcements of exports, inflation, and the steps to be taken in its disinflation process, as well as the efforts to be made for sustainable growth throughout 2026.

Türkiye has sustainable growth and disinflation as its main economic agenda items for the new year, while the country is also focused on hosting international trade events in 2026.

Inflation in the country stood at 64-65% at the end of 2022 and 2023, and fell to 44.4% at the end of 2024.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), meanwhile, fell to 31.07% in November 2025, reaching its lowest in the last four years.

Statistical bureau TurkStat will announce the December inflation rate on Jan. 5.

Declining inflation, record expectations in trade

Türkiye’s Medium-Term Program (MTP) for 2026-28 expects inflation rate will average 28.5% in 2025, and fall to around 16% in 2026.

Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said more supportive global financial conditions, moderate commodity prices, tight monetary and fiscal policy, enhanced financial stability, and accelerating improvements in expectations will propel the disinflation process further.

Simsek, speaking at the Turkish Grand National Assembly for the 2026 budget talks, said the new year will see a further decline in inflation.

Meanwhile, foreign trade figures for December and the entire year of 2025 will be unveiled on Jan. 3.

Sustainable growth targets

Besides disinflation, Türkiye will continue its efforts to reach its sustainable growth targets in 2026.

The Turkish economy grew 3.7% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.

Growth rate for the fourth quarter and the entire 2025 will be announced on March 2.

The economy grew 3.3% in 2024, and the expected rate for 2025 is 3.3%, and 3.8% in 2026, in line with Medium-Term Program targets.

Turkish Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee to hold 8 meetings in 2026

The Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) of Türkiye’s Central Bank (TCMB) lowered the one-week repo auction interest rate from 39.5% to 38% on Dec. 11, 2025, marking the last meeting of the year.

The committee will hold the first meeting of 2026 on Jan. 22 to make its monetary policy decision.

Inflation reports by the central bank are also likely to take center stage in money markets.

The TCMB is expected to present inflation reports on Feb. 12, May 14, Aug. 13, and Nov. 12 this year.

Credit ratings, intensive trade diplomacy, and global events

Türkiye’s credit rating announcements by international agencies will be one of the prominent economic agenda items in 2026.

Moody’s has upgraded Türkiye’s credit rating by three notches since May 2023, and the S&P and Fitch Ratings by two notches.

Fitch and Moody’s will make the first credit rating assessment of 2026 on Jan. 23, and the S&P is expected to announce its findings on April 17.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s international visits this year to develop trade and relations will also be featured intensively on the economic agenda.

Trade Minister Omer Bolat and businesspeople finished 2025 with diplomatic trade talks, and such visits are planned to increase in 2026. Bolat said in November that the ministry made 110 contacts with foreign countries.

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations will also come to the fore in 2026.