ISTANBUL

A potential significant loss in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks in the US could spill over into the global economy, causing volatility in international stock markets, according to a recent survey.

The World Economic Forum (WEF) conducted the survey and released the findings in its “Chief Economists’ Outlook: January 2026” report ahead of the 56th annual WEF meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

The report, published on Jan. 16, said global market performance last year was driven largely by gains in US stocks, particularly AI-related companies.

It found that the “Magnificent 7” US technology giants — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla — accounted for nearly 35% of total index market capitalization, up from 20% in November 2022.

Over the same period, cryptocurrencies declined, while gold recorded its strongest annual performance since 1979 amid heightened uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets.

The US dollar also halted its downward trend that began in April and strengthened against other major currencies.

According to the survey, conducted between Nov. 19 and Dec. 3, 2025, some 52% of respondents said AI stocks in the US will lose value in 2026. About 9% expect a significant decline, while 42% believe AI stocks will continue to rise.

Concerns over the US market persist, while optimism has emerged for Chinese and European markets.

Some 68% of respondents expect Chinese AI stocks to continue rising, while 59% believe European stocks will extend gains after strong performance in 2025.

For other assets, 54% of respondents said gold peaked in 2025, while 46% expect it to rise further this year.

Some 62% expect additional losses in cryptocurrencies. The Oct. 10, 2025 crash exposed weaknesses in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, with Bitcoin losing about a quarter of its value in just two months.

Some 54% of respondents believe the US dollar will continue to weaken.

The report said valuation levels and investor behavior are fueling concerns over an “asset bubble.”

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) said US stocks and gold have shown bubble-like characteristics in recent years, marking the first time in five decades that both have risen sharply in parallel.

The European Central Bank (ECB) said in its latest financial stability review that excessively high US tech stock valuations are being driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), warning that adverse developments could trigger sharp price corrections.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its October 2025 Global Financial Stability Report that market concentration around the Magnificent 7 has heightened risks, and negative developments could potentially spread to global stock and bond markets.

The IMF report also presented arguments against comparisons with the dot-com bubble, noting that AI firms have achieved high levels of profitability, supported by strong earnings growth and substantial real investment in data centers and infrastructure.

It said price-to-earnings ratios remain consistent with expectations of continued growth and are still below some peaks seen during the dot-com era.

The IMF and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said capital spending on AI made significant contributions to US economic growth last year, even without accounting for activity linked to tariffs.

- Potential US stock market crash could cost $35T

Some 74% of respondents to the WEF survey said a significant loss in US AI asset values would have widespread global impact, while 26% believe the effects would be more limited.

The report cited an assessment by former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath estimating that a potential US stock market crash could result in losses of up to $35 trillion.

A market correction on the scale of the dot-com crash could wipe out more than $20 trillion in US household wealth, while foreign investors could lose over $15 trillion globally.

Some 66% of respondents said a sharp decline in the US dollar would also have widespread consequences. However, most believe price movements in gold, cryptocurrencies, and Chinese and European stocks would have more limited global effects.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim