Hulya Omur Uylas, Mertkan Oruc and Gokhan Ergocun
06 January 2026•Update: 06 January 2026
ANKARA/ISTANBUL
Positive indicators in economic data for Türkiye, ranging from inflation to growth, exports to labor force, and from the balance of payments to credit risk premiums, have raised targets and expectations for 2026.
The Turkish economy, which grew by 3.7% in the third quarter of 2025, has been growing uninterruptedly for 21 quarters, while national income, which was $1.26 trillion in 2024, rose to a record $1.54 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.
In December 2025, exports increased by 12.8% compared to the same month of the previous year, breaking the all-time high monthly export record with $26.4 billion.
In line with the Medium-Term Program (MTP) target, exports in 2025 reached $273.4 billion, the highest level in the history of the republic.
A record was also set in goods exports; goods exports, which increased 4.5% compared to the previous year, also reached $273.4 billion at the end of 2025. Customs gates will continue to work overtime for this year's record.
Thanks to the increase in goods and services exports, the current account deficit, which is projected to be around 1.4% of national income by the end of 2025, remained at sustainable levels.
Türkiye's current account balance recorded a surplus of $457 million in October, while the current account balance excluding gold and energy recorded a surplus of $7.03 billion.
The current account balance has continued its positive trend for four consecutive months, including October.
Disinflation continues
While record figures emerged in many economic indicators in Türkiye, the downward trend in inflation also continued.
In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 30.89%, the lowest level in 49 months on an annual basis.
An examination of consumer price sub-groups showed that the decline in inflation was also at its lowest level in recent months across different spending groups.
The services inflation fell to 43.99% in December 2025, the lowest level in the last 44 months. Service inflation was last recorded at 42.18% in April 2022.
Housing inflation, another key factor affecting prices, was measured at its lowest level in 34 months on an annual basis last month; it was at 61.61% in December 2025, and last fell below this level in February 2023.
Meanwhile, basic goods inflation also fell to its lowest level in the last 60 months. The price change in basic goods was 17.71% in December 2025 on an annual basis. It was 17.24% in December 2020.
Meanwhile, annual inflation in clothing and footwear, which has been in single digits for the past six months, was 5.79% in December. This was the lowest level in the last 55 months. The last time the figure was below this level in the category was May 2021.
Unemployment
Türkiye's unemployment rate was 8.6% in November 2025, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The figure has remained in single digits for 31 months.
According to the results of the ISO Türkiye Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Survey for December 2025, the index rose for the second consecutive month, climbing from 48 in November 2025 to 48.9.
Thus, the index reached its lowest level in the last 12 months, with the deterioration in operating conditions remaining quite limited in the last month of last year.
The index's approach to the threshold value of 50 drew attention.
CDS at its lowest in 7 years
The country's 5-year credit default swap (CDS) fell to 204.5 basis points, its lowest level since May 2018.
This significantly reduced the external borrowing costs of public and private sectors, and increased access to external financing on more favorable terms.
Stock market hits new record after 4 months
The BIST 100 index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange hit a new record after approximately four months, backed by positive signals from domestic macroeconomic data and Türkiye's declining borrowing costs.
Starting the year at 11,296.52 points, the BIST 100 index closed on Monday at a record high of 11,702.00 points.
