The IMF on Monday said that the ongoing war in the Middle East has not only caused serious economic disruption in the countries most directly affected, but has also clouded the outlook for many economies that had only just begun to show signs of a sustained recovery from previous crises.

In a blog analysis written by IMF officials, the fund examined the impact of the war on energy prices, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions.

The analysis said the world is facing yet another shock, noting that the war is upending lives and livelihoods both in the region and beyond.

“It is also dimming the outlook for many economies that had only just shown signs of a sustained recovery from previous crises,” the IMF said.

The fund stressed that the shock is global but “asymmetric,” warning that energy importers are more exposed than exporters, poorer countries more than richer ones, and countries with limited buffers more than those with ample reserves.

Beyond its human toll, the analysis said the war has caused serious disruption in the economies of the most directly affected countries, including damage to infrastructure and industries that could become long-lasting.

Although those economies remain resilient, their short-term growth prospects will be negatively affected, it added.

The IMF pointed to energy prices, supply chains, and financial markets as the main transmission channels of the shock, while underlining that regional effects will vary significantly.

Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs, the analysis said, noting that around 25% to 30% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

It also said economies in Africa and Asia that are heavily dependent on oil imports are finding it increasingly difficult to secure the supplies they need, even at inflated prices.

Parts of the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America are also facing additional pressure from higher food and fertilizer prices and tighter financial conditions, according to the analysis.

Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, the IMF said, adding that some may require greater external support even as such assistance has been declining.

“All roads lead to higher prices and slower growth,” the analysis said, warning that the global economy could be affected in different ways depending on how long the conflict lasts, how far it spreads, and how much damage it causes to infrastructure and supply chains.

The IMF said it is closely monitoring developments and will provide a fuller assessment in its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report to be published on April 14, followed by its Fiscal Monitor on April 15.

The analysis also warned that if elevated energy and food prices persist, they will fuel inflation worldwide.

Historically, sustained oil-price spikes have tended to push inflation higher and growth lower, it said.

For many countries that had only just brought inflation closer to target, particularly those where price pressures have proved more persistent, the war raises the risk of a renewed period of uncomfortable inflation.

The IMF also warned that the conflict threatens not only to raise current inflation, but also to weaken the anchoring of inflation expectations, making the shock harder to contain without a sharper slowdown.