ISTANBUL

The re-election of US President Donald Trump in late 2024 and his return to office in early 2025 initially fueled optimism in crypto markets, but major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum ended 2025 with losses.

Trump completed his first year back at the White House after campaigning on an “America First” mindset, pledging to revive the US economy, boost employment and lower living costs through tariffs and tax reforms.

Cryptocurrencies were among the asset classes expected to benefit during Trump’s second term. He vowed to make the US the world’s Bitcoin superpower and signed an executive order on March 6, 2025, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile.

Following those developments and interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, Bitcoin reached a record $126,199, while Ethereum climbed to $4,956. However, global uncertainties linked to the Trump administration’s policies and questions surrounding the Fed’s future policy path triggered selling pressure across crypto markets.

Bitcoin entered a downward trend in February 2025 despite breaking the $100,000 level in January.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency fell below $80,000 in March 2025 before rebounding above $100,000 following a 90-day US-China tariff pause in May. Renewed caution over Fed rate cuts and concerns about high technology stock valuations later pushed Bitcoin below $85,000 by November 2025.

Bitcoin closed at $103,644 on Jan. 20, 2025, the day Trump took office, and traded around $90,000 during the first year of his presidency, remaining below its peak.

-‘Bitcoin has strong potential in 2026, but precious metals are in way’

Uraz Cay, a global markets strategist at Turkish investment broker AK Yatirim, told Anadolu that Bitcoin remains below its January 2025 level despite trading about 35% higher than in November 2024.

Cay said Bitcoin is roughly 27% below its October 2025 record.

“Despite Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025, the Trump administration’s positive steps for the crypto market, and the emergence of more crypto-based instruments within the financial system, we reached a point below the return levels that investors are used to seeing in past crypto bull markets,” he said.

"Bitcoin's prevalence in institutional investor portfolios has yet to increase as much as expected, while digital gold's performance surpassed real gold, and the stablecoin world became a new source of debt for the US, leading to geopolitical risks to spill over into the crypto market," he added.

Cay said the declining correlation between Bitcoin and other investment instruments shows strong diversification potential, but precious metals continue to dominate portfolios.

“Since the most crowded trades in portfolios are in precious metals, digital gold has yet to come into play as real gold rose and continues to rise,” he said.

He noted that total assets value in Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) fell by October 2025 but still stood at about $125 billion.

“Bitcoin has strong potential this year, but precious metals steal the spotlight,” he said.

-Potential correction in precious metals may reignite Bitcoin interest

Cay stated that the Nasdaq 100 saw many record closings last year, while the index is on the path to a yet another record closing since its close at the end of October.

He noted that the index’s performance has been stronger than Bitcoin’s relative to their respective peaks.

"The Bitcoin-Nasdaq 100 correlation is also below the level of previous years, so it would make more sense to focus on the Bitcoin-Gold correlation than the one with the Nasdaq 100," he said. "The Bitcoin-Gold ratio tested above the 40 level in December 2024, while currently standing at below 20-both gold and silver ended last year with their best returns since 1979, starting the new year strongly."

"It may make more sense to think that a group of investors who cannot drop precious metals are showing less interest in Bitcoin, instead of drawing a parallel between tech stocks and Bitcoin-with this mindset, a potential correction in precious metals may reignite the investor interest in Bitcoin," he added.