- Analysts say Takaichi is betting on personal popularity to stabilize weakened LDP rule
- Tough security stance toward China boosts support, but critics warn of thin policy depth
ISTANBUL
Riding a wave of personal popularity, Japan’s first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has called snap elections for Feb. 8 in a bid to secure a parliamentary majority and consolidate her authority after months of fragile minority rule.
Takaichi, 64, became Japan’s 104th prime minister last October, breaking with decades of male-dominated leadership in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Her decision to seek an early mandate comes despite the ruling party’s recent electoral setbacks but reflects what analysts describe as a calculated gamble.
Experts say her consistently high approval ratings over the past four months encouraged the move, allowing her to seek a stronger mandate to push through policies ranging from economic reform to a tougher national security posture amid China’s rise.
“It’s like calling a snap election in a honeymoon period,” Nancy Snow, author of Japan’s Information War, told Anadolu. “She is taking advantage of her relatively high approval ratings to convert more seats in the direction of the LDP so that she can govern with more stability and authority.”
Minority rule, early gamble
The LDP, which has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, suffered a heavy defeat in the 2024 general election, losing its lower house majority for the first time since 2009. The setback was followed by another blow last July, when the party lost its majority in the upper house.
With support from the small Japan Innovation Party, Takaichi formed a minority government, an arrangement that has limited her ability to pass controversial legislation.
Despite those constraints, her approval ratings have remained unusually strong compared to her predecessors. A Nikkei survey released Jan. 26 showed public support for her administration at 67%, down from 75% in December but still well above historical norms.
“She’s more popular than the LDP, which has been losing strength to Sanseito and other opposition parties,” Snow said.
Sanseito, a right-wing populist party founded in 2020, jumped from one seat to 14 in the 2025 elections.
Acting before it’s too late
Not all analysts are convinced the momentum will last.
Saul Takahashi, a visiting professor of legal studies at New York University Abu Dhabi, said the prime minister is moving quickly because her political window may be narrow.
“It arguably made political sense for her to do this quickly, because Takaichi really has very little in the way of real policies,” he told Anadolu. “The longer she waited, the sooner the people would realize that and support would drop.”
Still, Takahashi acknowledged that her personal appeal has helped stabilize the government at a time when the LDP’s institutional strength has weakened.
Snow agrees, arguing that it is Takaichi’s belief that “now is the best time to solidify her leadership before support inevitably weakens.”
‘Tough guy’ stance against China
A key factor behind Takaichi’s support has been her hawkish stance on national security, particularly toward China.
Last November, she warned lawmakers that any Chinese military action against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening crisis” for Japan – language that would allow Tokyo to deploy its Self-Defense Forces under existing law.
The remarks drew swift retaliation from Beijing, including restrictions on tourism and trade, and sharp criticism of Japan’s wartime history.
“Her firm stance on security, including her early remarks on a Taiwan security contingency in response to China’s moves, has contributed to her popularity,” Snow said. “She did not cave in to China pressure but showed support for keeping lines of communication open between the two countries.”
Takahashi said Takaichi’s “tough guy stance against China was a political play for popular support.”
But he also described the rhetoric as partly aimed at Washington.
“The postwar political elite in Japan have invested huge capital in fealty to the Americans, and are petrified by the prospect that the US would abandon them,” he said, describing Washington’s reaction to Takaichi’s Taiwan comments as “a flop.”
“Takaichi was hoping for a strong message of support from Trump, but rather was told to tone things down,” he added.
Snow believes Takaichi’s stance on China aims to improve Japan’s regional security as the US focuses more on its influence in the Western hemisphere.
“It has alarmed Beijing and created tension between the two countries,” she said, admitting that some worry “that the China-Japan situation will only worsen.”
Seeking a stronger hand in Japan and abroad
Taiwanese scholar Chien-Yu Shih of the Institute for National Defense and Security Research said Takaichi’s snap election reflects broader shifts in global politics, particularly China and the United States “prioritizing their own national interests.”
“Japan must possess sufficient internal social and political stability, meaning it is preferable to avoid multi-party coalition cabinets, to potentially assume a greater international role, at least in East Asia,” he told Anadolu.
“Great power politics inherently carries structural risks, and such risks are often unbearable for nations with fragile domestic political structures,” he added.
At the moment, Takaichi is faced with what he called “highly sensitive political choices” around China and the US, with questions ranging from economic interdependence, security and democratic values.
“Should it persist with a multi-party structure characterized by divergent positions, constant internal strife, and lack of unity, Japan will be unable to navigate the compromises between the US and China,” the Taiwanese researcher added.
When announcing the early polls, Takaichi also argued that passing divisive legislation – including proposals on defense spending, public investment and consumption tax on food – requires broader support.
“She needs to retain a solid majority in parliament to pass these reforms without much pushback,” said Snow.
Opposition parties join force
Japan’s opposition parties have moved quickly ahead of the snap polls. The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has joined forces with former LDP ally Komeito under a new “Centrist Reform Alliance.”
“If the centrists can present a unified front and offer alternatives on taxes and social spending, they could be competitive,” Snow said, adding that the LDP remains “an unpopular party with weakened power.”
Takahashi was more skeptical about the opposition’s chances.
The new party, he said, offers “nothing new in their positions; nothing to attract new voters.”
Komeito, which has traditionally received support from Buddhist groups, remains strong in some regions. However, “their support base is getting older and shrinking,” Takahashi said.
He warned that the trend could open space for more extreme politics, pointing to the rise of the right-wing Sanseito party in recent elections.
“Japanese politics has changed … People have had it with quiet, consensus-based, and slow. Rather, they want action, now, any kind of action. In many ways, it is a very dangerous trend, one that opens the door to the extreme right,” said Takahashi.
However, he said this shift in Japanese political culture also bodes well for Takaichi, who he said “is frank, direct, and speaks her mind.”
“That is a refreshing change from the usual, restrained style of Japanese politics,” he said. “But the problem is people are less attentive to what is actually being said.”
