ISTANBUL
Japan’s grand old Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner Komeito lost their majority in the parliament after elections on Sunday, triggering a political upheaval in the world’s fifth-largest economy.
Experts believe the election to 125 seats of the Japanese parliament’s upper house has brought a “change” to domestic politics, and the country of around 125 people was likely to see the “emergence of extreme parties” after the newly formed Sanseito party was declared the biggest beneficiary of the elections.
However, it has put more pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who is leading a minority Cabinet after the LDP-Komeito lost last year’s general elections.
Ishiba was elected last November in a rare runoff, the first time in 30 years, after failing to secure the minimum support of 233 lawmakers in the 465-seat lower house of the parliament, locally known as the Diet.
On Sunday, 125 of 248 seats in the upper house were up for grabs. The LDP-Komeito fell short of at least three seats to maintain the simple majority of 125 seats, which has given rise to the likelihood of several scenarios.
The LDP-Komeito ruling camp now has 122 seats, down from 141 before the election.
Ishiba continues as chief executive?
Cognizant of “harsh” conditions for the LDP-Komeito ruling camp, Ishiba resisted calls to step down.
“I would like to sincerely deepen discussions with other parties and approach national politics with a sincere devotion to my country," Ishiba said, stressing he would seek "bipartisan” support across the political divide.
Ishiba has led the minority government since last year after the LDP-Komeito lost in general elections for the first time since 2009.
Until a no-confidence motion by opposition parties is brought in the parliament and successfully passed, Ishiba will remain the premier, though he will have to seek the support of opposition parties to pass his bills.
The LDP-Komeito coalition currently holds 221 seats in the Lower House, falling 12 votes short of the 233 needed to pass legislation in the 465-member chamber.
After it lost the elections last year, the Ishiba government secured the support of the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which holds 21 seats.
The DPP won 17 seats in the upper house, but it has felt betrayed by the LDP-Komeito coalition since last year.
“The way forward for Japan seems clear as mud right now. Ishiba has already announced he will stay on as PM, but clearly, he is a lame duck,” Japanese academic Saul Takahashi told Anadolu.
“There really isn’t anybody in pole position to take over right now, so Ishiba might be able to cling on for a while, in the hope he can bring about some form of short-term win.”
It is likely that Ishiba will continue “policy-to-policy” coordination with opposition parties, on an individual or collective basis, to carry on legislation.
While no major opposition party has signaled any support to Ishiba, the right-wing Sanseito party, which ran the “Japanese First” campaign and won 15 seats, has indicated it may cooperate with the LDP-Komeito coalition.
Ishiba, however, is also facing growing calls from within the LDP to step down. If intra-party electioneering occurs, snap polls are likely to happen.
New coalition?
An alternative government or a new coalition against Ishiba’s remains highly unlikely.
Put altogether, the opposition led by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) has 126 seats in the upper house and 244 in the lower house.
However, it remains fragmented as their policies differ.
In fact, the DPP has been in coordination with LDP-Komeito in the lower house, where it has 21 seats, making it harder to garner minimum support for any alternative government.
Ishiba had received 221 votes against 160 for Yoshihiko Noda of the CDPJ when the lower house voted for the premier’s seat.
In a desperate situation to continue their government, the LDP-Komeito combo might weigh inviting a third party and handing over the premier seat to it. It looks highly unlikely since Ishiba declared the LDP will “continue to play its role for Japan's future and its people.”
Snap polls or new partner?
The most possible political scenario seems a snap election if Ishiba calls it a day.
Inflation, taxes, and immigration were top issues during the election campaign and are “closely tied to Japan's economic development,” according to political expert Chien-Yu Shih.
Japan is currently holding tariff negotiations with the US, which, if imposed, will hit hard the country’s export-driven economy.
Besides, the savings of Japanese are melting fast due to the cost-of-living crisis triggered by high inflation.
However, intra-LDP push and factions opposed to Ishiba growing stronger can fast-forward the snap polls.
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Public Policy, told Anadolu that Sunday’s election resulted in “the end of the traditional political system where the LDP is in the center.”
“However, this does not mean that any other parties will take over the LDP's position. Japanese politics is going to be in chaos unless the LDP can find a new partner to form a new coalition. But there seems to be no party interested in being part of it. So, the LDP may continue ruling as a minority government,” Kazuto said in an email interview.
He added: "If Ishiba was not able to form a new coalition, there may be a snap election."
A weak Japan?
Academic Takahashi said the election results “are a disaster for the tariff talks.”
“Japan needs a united front right now, which is the last thing on anybody’s mind as the parties jostle for power,” said Takahashi, adding US President Donald Trump has “shown he has no respect for a loser, which is what Ishiba is right now.”
“Japan is in a very weak position.”
According to Chien-Yu, who lives in Taiwan and is a keen observer of Japanese politics, the ruling coalition “must form further alliances.”
The LDP may continue to govern, “but the process will be more complicated.”
Ishiba's refusal to step down as party leader “will make the situation even more challenging,” predicted Chien-Yu, who is associate research fellow at Taipei-based Institute for National Defense and Security Research.“Following the election defeat, the Ishiba administration is unlikely to make concessions in tariff negotiations with the US. If he is ultimately forced to resign, this will bring critical trade negotiations to an abrupt halt. In other words, it has become nearly impossible to complete negotiations by the Aug. 1 deadline,” he added.
