• Analysts say Takaichi likely to pursue hawkish defense, stimulus-led economy, closer ties with Washington

• With minority coalition government, ‘she’ll need to be a constant deal-maker to pass large-ticket items,’ says Japan expert Nancy Snow

ISTANBUL

Conservative Sanae Takaichi of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) was elected the country's first female prime minister on Tuesday, taking charge at a time when the country is struggling with rising economic problems, growing tensions in the region, and a divided political landscape.

A staunch conservative and close ally of former Premier Shinzo Abe, Takaichi, 64, has been dubbed Japan’s “Iron Lady” for her tough rhetoric and uncompromising political style – drawing frequent comparisons to Britain’s Margaret Thatcher.

She takes office as Japan prepares to turn a page following the resignation of former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba last month. Takaichi becomes the country’s fourth leader in less than five years.

Pledging to revive the economy through large-scale government spending and bold reform, she has also vowed to strengthen Japan’s defense and deepen ties with the US under the Donald Trump administration.

"Indeed, the new female PM Takaichi is a staunch conservative in the Abe mold – she is US-Japan pro-alliance, defense-forward and nationalist on history," Nancy Snow, an expert on Japan affairs and professor of communications emeritus at California State University, told Anadolu.

Snow predicts that Takaichi’s policies will include a hawkish stance toward China, social conservatism at home and “Abenomics-style macro policies” adapted to today’s inflationary pressures and weak yen.

Domestic political crisis

While Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics almost uninterruptedly since 1955, Takaichi takes office in a weakened position after the collapse of the long-standing coalition with the Komeito Party.

She now governs with the support of the populist, right-leaning Japan Innovation Party (Ishin), but without a clear majority in the lower house.

Analysts say her immediate challenge will be to restore public trust in the LDP, which has faced a string of scandals involving unreported funds and allegations of misuse of political donations, and to prevent its traditional base from drifting toward far-right parties.

Snow said Takaichi will have to prioritize negotiation and compromise to sustain her government.

"She’ll need to be a constant deal-maker to pass large-ticket items," she said.

Policy on social issues

Experts say Takaichi is unlikely to deviate from her long-held traditionalist positions on social policy.

"Expect continuity with her long-stated views, opposition to same-sex marriage and to allowing married couples separate surnames, support for male-only imperial succession," Snow said.

Although she is not a feminist in the Western sense, Snow said that does not make her “anti-woman.”

"She is a pragmatist and a traditionalist,” she explained. “She worked hard to get where she is and probably views gender equality as a lesser goal than making Japan great again."

Immigration policy

Japan’s foreign population reached nearly 3.77 million in 2024, up 10.5% from the previous year – the highest on record for a third consecutive year, according to the Immigration Services Agency.

Experts say that trend may not last.

"Takaichi is expected to propose tighter control over immigration as part of her response to the rising domestic grievances about the social issues extended from the increasing level of migration," William Yang, International Crisis Group's senior analyst for North East Asia, told Anadolu.

Snow added that Takaichi’s approach is likely to remain cautious and selective.

"She will be careful toward permanent migration while expanding targeted labor schemes where shortages bite,” she said. “Her coalition partner, Ishin, is more market-liberal, but her own politics lean toward restrictionism. Any broad liberalization toward immigration and foreign talent is not likely."

Economy and defense

Experts suggest the economy and defense will be her top two priorities.

Takaichi advocates expansionary budgets and loose monetary policy as key drivers of growth, while seeking to double Japan’s defense spending from 1% to 2% of gross domestic product.

"She will have to try to address the pressing cost of living issue that has troubled Japan in recent years,” Yang said. “She will likely implement a more expansionary fiscal policy while looking to continue strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities.”

Snow said the premier supports fiscal stimulus and hopes the Bank of Japan, now worried about an uptick in inflation, will cooperate.

“The so-called ‘Sanaenomics’ is heavier on fiscal outlays and industrial policy,” she said.

“That could mean short-term cost-of-living relief, wage-price alignment through business-labor compacts and investments in economic security such as semiconductors and supply chains.”

Regarding defense policy, the new premier has spoken in favor of amending Article 9 of the Constitution, which prohibits Japan from maintaining a war-fighting force, in a bid to strengthen the military.

"Like Abe, she backs revising the Japanese Peace Constitution to clearly recognize the Self Defense Forces, expanding counter-strike capabilities and lifting defense spending, which continues the trajectory set in recent years," Snow said.

Closer ties with US

Experts say Takaichi is expected to prioritize close coordination with the US and personal outreach to Trump.

She received praise from Trump following her LDP leadership win and will welcome him as her first state guest during his upcoming Asia tour.

"Takaichi will have to show adaptability and agility when it comes to managing the relationship with the US, which remains central to Japan’s foreign and defense policy," Yang said.

Her strong emphasis on defense, analysts say, could help maintain positive ties with the Trump administration, though trade negotiations may prove more challenging.

"But she will also have to demonstrate the ability to hold the ground against Washington’s increasingly transactional trade policies toward allies,” Yang said.

Snow noted that, like Abe, Takaichi is likely to position Japan as a central pillar of America’s Asia strategy.

While Japan faces 15% US tariffs, Snow said Takaichi’s hawkish profile aligns with Trump’s deterrence focus, though sweeping trade deals are unlikely in the near term.

“A big-bang free trade agreement is improbable,” she said. “More plausible are targeted mini-deals on supply chains, critical tech, and defense co-production.”

Tough on China, cautious on Taiwan

Experts agree that Japan, under Takaichi, will adopt a hawkish stance toward China.

“With regard to China, Takaichi is traditionally known for taking a hard line on perceived threats from Beijing,” Yang said. “So fundamentally, she’s unlikely to deviate from that path.”

Still, he said, she may keep open channels for dialogue to avoid escalating tensions, especially as countries reassess their ties with Washington under Trump’s foreign policy.

“Takaichi has a relatively good relationship with Taiwan,” Yang added. “But she is unlikely to dramatically advance relations with Taipei, given the need to hedge between Beijing and Washington.”

Snow said Takaichi is expected to be firmer than her predecessors on issues of economic security, export controls and military deterrence around the disputed Senkaku Islands.

"Expect some pushback on Chinese gray-zone activity and more coordination with the US and partners on medium-range capabilities and intel,” she said.

She also expects clearer political support for Taiwan’s status quo and defense cooperation, albeit within Japan’s legal limits.

Regarding South Korea, Snow said Takaichi is expected to favor a pragmatic approach anchored in shared security priorities such as missile defense and intelligence sharing.

"The strategic logic of trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation remains strong, and its security priorities point to continuity,” she said. “Rhetoric could harden if historical disputes resurface."