ISTANBUL

Bangladesh is approaching a crucial general election on Feb. 12 amid heightened political tension, deep polarization, and lingering fears of violence.

The vote, the first since the 2024 mass uprising that toppled former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is unfolding in an environment shaped by weakened institutions and fractured political alliances.

At least 16 political leaders and activists have been killed across the country from Dec. 11, when the election schedule was announced, until Jan. 16, according to local media.

According to local human and legal rights group Ain o Salish Kendra (ASK), 401 incidents of political violence took place last year, leaving 102 dead and 4,744 injured.

Police data shows that 5,763 firearms were looted during the uprising, of which 1,333 have yet to be recovered -- a main security concern ahead of the elections.

What is happening?

The election is being held by an interim administration following the collapse of Hasina’s government in August 2024.

Voters will elect a new parliament and simultaneously vote on reforms aimed at preventing a return to authoritarian rule.

Political competition is centered on the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, and the National Citizens Party (NCP) -- formed by student leaders of the anti-Hasina movement, popularly known as the July Uprising.

The interim government has blocked Hasina's Awami League from participating in the polls.

Groups that once stood together during the uprising are now rivals, transforming the election into a high-stakes contest over reform, legitimacy, and control of the state.

More than 127 million voters are expected to head to the polls, up from 119.6 million in 2024.

Voters will cast ballots on Feb. 12 to choose 300 members of parliament from nearly 2,000 candidates, with 151 seats needed to secure a governing majority.

With the campaign starting on Jan. 22, experts believe that “ideological rivalries and political polarization” contribute to the tense situation in the South Asian country.

Persistent incidents of violence

Experts say political violence persists as the election campaign intensifies.

“Violence is a feature of elections in Bangladesh,” said Thomas Kean, a senior consultant on Myanmar and Bangladesh for the International Crisis Group.

“While it is unfortunate to see political conflict increase as the election approaches, we should not be entirely surprised,” Kean told Anadolu.

He said there are “a number of factors that are contributing to this violence,” such as “ideological rivalries and political polarization.”

Last month, the country was shocked by the death of Sharif Osman Hadi, a youth leader who rose to prominence during the 2024 protests and was preparing to contest a parliamentary seat in central Dhaka.

“According to police, some of Hadi's alleged killers were connected to the Awami League -- presumably they were hoping to disrupt the election, as well as get revenge for his anti-Awami League activism,” Kean said.

“But the quest for power and the trappings that come with it also drive violence. In some cases, conflict occurs between candidates from rival parties in hotly contested areas,” he added.

“Monitoring groups say that most of the political violence under the interim government has actually been due to turf wars between members of the BNP,” he said, noting the presence of dozens of rebel BNP candidates, running as independents, who were denied election tickets.

Political polarization

“The situation is charged up. Tension is growing because the parties in contest are seeing the election as a do-or-die situation,” said Zakaria Polash, a Bangladesh-based author and political analyst.

He said that political forces that once united against Hasina have split over the reform agenda.

“It is now clear that the Jamaat and the NCP are now on the same alignment, looking forward to reforms if they can come into power, while the BNP seems to be slightly reluctant to accept all proposed reforms if they come into power,” Polash said.

As a result, “the entire divide has been classified as the pro-reform vs. status-quo binary,” he added.

On the ground, this division has translated into increasingly hostile rhetoric.

“The BNP is blaming Jamaat for using religion as a tool to capture votes, while Jamaat is labeling the BNP as the thugs and corrupt people; hence, the narrative and counter-narrative are heavily confronting,” Polash said. “The more it approaches the election, the graver it gets.”

Politicized judiciary and weak structure

Institutional weakness is another factor fueling political violence.

Kean pointed to long-standing structural problems within the justice system.

“The ineffectiveness of the legal system, a culture of impunity, and politicized investigations provide a further incentive to engage in violence to achieve political goals,” Kean said.

Polash stressed the need to address administrative fragility ahead of polling day.

He warned that maintaining order across tens of thousands of polling stations will be extremely difficult, “as there was no new recruitment since Aug. 5, 2024, and actually all the officials are recruited” under the previous regime.

This, he says, increases the likelihood of officials “consciously remaining inactive in crisis.”

Elections to reforms

At the core of the election is a struggle over reforms.

Alongside the parliamentary vote, Bangladeshis will decide whether to approve political reforms designed to limit executive power and restructure key institutions.

Salman Al-Azami, senior academic in Media and Communication at Liverpool Hope University, said the reform push emerged from a shared realization after Hasina’s fall.

“Everyone agreed that there must be reform in the system so that no one can become a dictator in the future,” he said.

The referendum has sharpened political identities.

Polash noted that Jamaat and the NCP are appealing strongly to reform-minded and younger voters, while the BNP continues to draw support from older and elite segments of society, reinforcing the broader pro-reform versus status-quo divide.

Role of media

Polash also pointed out the role of local media during the campaign.

It is “evident that almost all Bangladesh news media outlets, including broadcast and print, are unapologetically taking sides,” he said.

“It is seen that the media is treating the BNP leader Mr. Tareque Rahman as the prime minister even before the election has taken place,” Polash said, noting: “Media is dictating the field before the voters decide.”

Regional dynamics add another layer to the tensions.

Polash referred to “influence and fear-mongering from the neighboring country” as a key concern.

Al-Azami said many Bangladeshis fear post-election interference.

“There are conspiracies by the foreign Awami League and from India; there are instigations. They will try to disturb,” he said, adding that the role of India after the election remains a major issue.

New Delhi has rejected the criticism and reiterated its support for free and fair elections in a peaceful atmosphere.

What is next for Bangladesh?

The election contest is going to be “neck and neck,” said Al-Azami, pointing to a shifting voter support base.

Al-Azami believes Jamaat would accept a BNP victory if the process is fair.

“If the BNP wins, I think Jamaat will accept the results,” he says. However, he notes widespread “concern” in a reverse scenario.

Kean warned that the next government will face daunting challenges regardless of who wins.

“The next government will face a number of significant challenges,” he said, including economic reform, managing international relations, and resolving the future of the Awami League.

Despite the risks, Polash insists that elections are unavoidable. “There is no alternative to the election for the country,” he said.