ISTANBUL

As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year, assessing the full scale of the devastation inflicted on Ukraine remains a complex and evolving task.

The conflict, which began on Feb. 24, 2022, continues to rage as both sides accuse each other of launching frequent airstrikes, many targeting critical energy infrastructure and deepening the winter hardships faced by civilians still waiting for the war to end.

Russian and Ukrainian forces remain locked in combat along a 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) front line, where Moscow claims incremental advances while Kyiv focuses on defense and attrition.

At the same time, Ukraine’s postwar recovery and reconstruction have moved to the forefront of international attention, particularly as renewed peace negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv have intensified in recent months.

Officials from Ukraine, the US and EU have confirmed that discussions are underway on a recovery framework to form part of a broader settlement to end the conflict, with the staggering cost of the war and the financing required to rebuild the country emerging as central issues in the talks.

Cost of war

Though independent and international institutions have been regularly assessing the cost of war for Ukraine, these figures require updates as the conflict continues to inflict more damage on the country.

The most recent such assessment, released on Monday, was included in an updated joint document prepared by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations.

According to a press release by the World Bank Group on the fifth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA5) document, as of Dec. 31, 2025, the total cost of Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction over the next decade will be $588 billion, which is three times the country's projected nominal GDP for that year.

The RDNA5 document found that “direct damage” in Ukraine had reached $195 billion, which constitutes a $19 billion increase from the previous toll reported in the Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment document released in February last year.

It noted that housing, transport, and energy were the sectors most affected by the conflict and that 14% of the country’s housing stock has been either damaged or destroyed, affecting more than 3 million households.

The document further said that there has been a 21% increase in damaged or destroyed assets in the country's energy sector since the previous assessment, noting this included power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure, and district heating.

"Damage, losses, and needs remain concentrated in frontline oblasts and major metropolitan areas," it also said.

The document highlighted that "unlocking the full potential of private investment" for Ukraine will depend on reforms to improve the country's business environment, bolster competition, and expand access to finance, among other issues.

"Of the total long-term needs, reconstruction and recovery needs are the highest in the transport sector (over $96 billion)," it said, adding that this is followed by the energy and housing sectors, which need nearly $91 billion and $90 billion, respectively.

Recovery plan

While an updated estimate of the war's cost has been released by the World Bank, the Ukrainian government, the European Commission, and the UN on Monday, media reports have given a glimpse of talks taking place on Ukraine’s post-war recovery and the figures being discussed.

Citing an 18-page document it obtained, Politico reported on Jan. 23 that the US and the EU are hoping to attract $800 billion of public and private funds to help rebuild Ukraine following the end of the war, while also outlining a 10-year plan with a fast-tracked path for Kyiv’s EU membership.

The European Commission circulated the plan to EU capitals ahead of an informal meeting of the European Council that addressed the document, according to three EU officials and diplomats.

However, the report said that the plan, which is part of a US-proposed 20-point peace framework, hinges on an end to ongoing hostilities between Moscow and Kyiv.

“It explicitly assumes that security guarantees are already in place and is not intended as a military roadmap. Instead, it focuses on how Ukraine can transition from emergency assistance to self-sustaining prosperity,” it further said.

According to the report, the document also said that the EU, the US, and international financial bodies, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, pledged to spend $500 billion of public and private capital over the next 10 years.

Meanwhile, the European Commission intends to spend a further €100 billion ($117.8 billion) on Ukraine through budget support and investment guarantees as part of the 27-member bloc’s next seven-year budget from 2028, according to the report.

“This funding is expected to unlock €207 billion ($244 billion) in investments for Ukraine,” it added, noting that Washington pledged to mobilize capital through a dedicated US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund but gave no figures.