• Analysts expect more assertive stance on security and China
• Japan ‘positioned to become a more assertive status-quo defender' with stronger ties to Australia, Southeast Asia and Europe, says author Nancy Snow
• Yet academic Saul Takahashi warns that Washington’s unreliability could complicate Tokyo’s alliance strategy

ISTANBUL

Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has secured a sweeping election victory, giving Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a supermajority that analysts say could embolden her to take a more assertive stance on security and China.

In Sunday’s vote, Takaichi’s LDP won 316 of 465 seats, the strongest single-party result in Japan’s modern parliamentary history.

The historic victory comes just four months after Takaichi, Japan’s first female prime minister, took office leading a minority government.

Analysts say the result could give her the political room to push harder on defense and alliance policies.

“Expect to see much more openly bullish, aggressive rhetoric towards China,” said Saul Takahashi, a visiting professor of legal studies at New York University Abu Dhabi.

“No doubt Takaichi will continue to explore strengthening military alliances aimed at the containment of China, much like her mentor and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did,” he told Anadolu.

Nancy Snow, Japan expert and author, agreed, saying the administration would likely adopt “stronger language on security and less hesitation about defense normalization.”

"The core pillars of her policies remain unchanged. They are a US alliance first, with an Indo-Pacific focus and deterrence against China," she told Anadolu.

Still, Takahashi was cautious about how far those efforts might succeed.

“I wouldn’t count on too much success” in Japan’s attempts to deepen ties with partners such as Australia, the UK and India, he said.

“Most of the countries Japan will be approaching are being forced by US President Donald Trump’s unreliability to forge closer ties with China,” he said. “That is the big game right now, and Japan is just a minor player.”

He added that former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had been a “skilled diplomat with foresight, pedigree and finesse,” but said Takaichi “has none of that.”

Ties with US under Trump era

Japan is one of Washington’s closest military allies in the Asia-Pacific, hosting more than 50,000 US troops under a mutual defense treaty.

Trump has pushed allies, including Japan, to shoulder more of the costs for US forces and to increase their own defense spending.

He also endorsed Takaichi ahead of the election and announced plans to meet her at the White House next month, calling her a “strong, powerful, and wise” leader. After the vote, Takaichi said she would “work closely” with Trump “to advance peace, strength, and prosperity for our two nations.”

Trump also visited Japan during the first weeks of Takaichi’s term, where the two addressed joint US and Japanese forces aboard USS George Washington nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

Snow said Takaichi’s approach to Trump reflects a personal style of alliance management.

“It’s a person-to-person alliance management posture – direct, personable, warm, mutual interest-based," she said. "In terms of security, Japan will emphasize burden-sharing and regional deterrence under the US-Japan Security Treaty.”

Takaichi has already announced plans to raise defense spending and move toward revising Japan’s pacifist constitution.

She has also called for reviews of the country’s three core security documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Program, with a formal review expected this spring.

A strong mandate

In a post-election news conference, Takaichi said the result gave the LDP a “mandate for important policy shifts.”

Takahashi said the supermajority could have major implications.

“That means they may be able to advance constitutional change, which would enable the re-militarization of the country and participation in US military operations in East Asia and beyond,” he said.

He noted, however, that such changes are not guaranteed.

“Whether Takaichi will go down that route is an open question, since the public is hoping for economic improvement and is generally uninterested in constitutional reform.”

Japan’s economy has slowed in recent years, with wages lagging behind inflation and the country facing a rapidly aging population.

Takaichi has advocated “responsible yet aggressive” fiscal policies and said Japan needs to move away from what she called “excessive fiscal austerity.”

Snow said economic ties with Washington could prove more complicated than security cooperation, but predicted Takaichi "will emphasize that tariffs on a treaty ally undermine alliance credibility, but she will negotiate pragmatically rather than moralize.”

“Bottom line – strong on security, tough on economics, no illusions about free lunches,” she added.

‘Guarded’ ties with China

Relations with Beijing have deteriorated since Takaichi linked Taiwan’s security to Japan’s survival last November.

China responded with sharp statements and travel restrictions.

Takahashi argued that Japan’s political establishment relies too heavily on Washington.

“The LDP, and the Japanese political elite in general, have only one strategy towards the US, and that is fealty and obsequiousness,” said Takahashi.

He warned that Japan risks overreliance on the US, arguing that Washington could abandon Tokyo if it suited American interests.

“What the Japanese elite still haven’t realized is that Trump will dump Japan without a second thought if he thinks that will benefit him. Japan needs to diversify its diplomacy; unfortunately, Takaichi and the extremists surrounding her don’t understand that,” he argued.

Snow said Japan’s approach to China is likely to become more cautious and transactional.

“Economic ties continue, but Japan will stand firmer on coercion pressures, Taiwan, and maritime pressure,” she said, adding that Takaichi will now have more confidence to pursue “Japan-first” policies.

Critical dilemma

Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen said Takaichi faces a difficult balancing act at home and abroad.

She “must first satisfy her domestic base - especially younger voters - with tangible economic progress on issues like prices, jobs, wages, energy, and food security,” he told Anadolu. But her policy options are limited.

“Improving relations with China, the obvious largest market, is complicated by frosty political ties and her statements on Taiwan,” he said. “Turning to Russia for energy and food would be logical, but would provoke immediate and severe reactions by the United States.”

He suggested that integrating Russia into the Japan-South Korea-China trilateral dialogue could, in theory, offer a more stable approach, but said such a move is unrealistic for now.

"It would require navigating intense US opposition, deep-seated historical tensions with South Korea and territorial concessions with Russia and China,” he said.

Tangen added that China was closely watching whether Takaichi has the flexibility to make major strategic shifts.

"Her window to craft a viable path is narrow, and her past record offers little indication she has the vision or the ability to execute such a high-risk, high-reward strategy,” he said.

Snow said that, overall, Japan is likely to adopt a more assertive but still cautious posture.

Now, Japan "is positioned to become a more assertive status-quo defender – clearer red lines, stronger partnerships with Australia, ASEAN states and Europe," she said.

“Internationally, Japan positions itself as a norm-setter on economic security; a reliable but not overly deferential ally to the US; and a definite counterweight to China that seeks to avoid conflict escalation.”