• ‘Trump's warning is not solely about Maliki. It is a declaration that the period of strategic ambiguity in Iraq has ended. The US no longer wants Iraq to balance; it demands clarity
• International Crisis Group senior Iraq analyst Lahib Higel:
• ‘Maliki’s third term would likely carry a very high cost for Iraq's political elites and especially the Shia parties’

ANKARA 

US President Donald Trump has warned that Washington would no longer provide diplomatic, economic, or military support to Iraq if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is selected as the country's next leader.

Trump described Maliki's potential return as a “very bad choice,” citing his past tenure as having led Iraq into poverty and chaos due to what he referred to as “insane policies and ideologies.”

He stated that the US would cease all assistance if Maliki is elected, leaving Iraq with “zero chance of success, prosperity, or freedom.”

Maliki, backed by Iraq's dominant Shia Coordination Framework and seen as closely aligned with Iran, continues to insist on his candidacy despite US pressure.

Speaking to Anadolu, Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Omar Al-Nidawi said Trump’s intervention could prevent Maliki from securing a third term, though the political deadlock in Baghdad remains unresolved.

Nidawi emphasized that Iran’s influence in Iraq is deeply entrenched and cannot be significantly reduced by pressuring a single figure over one or two government terms.

Structural reforms in Iraq’s political, security, and legal systems are needed to limit Iran’s influence, he said.

However, Nidawi noted that Washington has a wide array of tools if an unwanted candidate is selected.

"We could see more aggressive sanctions targeting individuals and parties linked to Iranian interests," Nidawi said, noting that many in Iraq are concerned about Washington potentially restricting access to US dollars from the country's oil exports.

Trump's warning risks provoking backlash in Iraq

Chatham House researcher Hayder Al-Shakeri highlighted the possibility that Trump's warning could backfire.

According to Al-Shakeri, overt pressure could generate a nationalist reaction and provide a useful sovereignty narrative to Iran-linked actors. "This could harden positions rather than reduce Iran's influence in Baghdad."

‘Cost of giving Maliki a third term would likely be very high’

International Crisis Group senior Iraq analyst Lahib Higel said: “Maliki’s third term would likely carry a very high cost for Iraq's political elites and especially the Shia parties.”

Higel anticipates short-term measures such as individualized sanctions and restrictions on access to US dollars if Maliki or another candidate unwanted by the US is selected, which would complicate the work of the sitting prime minister.

According to Higel, Washington could also revisit the strategic framework agreement with Iraq in the long term.

US demands clarity, not balance

Ali Mamouri, research assistant at Deakin University in Australia, said the US no longer wants Iraq to balance between Washington and Tehran; it now demands clarity.

Trump's warning against Maliki's re-election should be read as a strategic signal to Iraq's entire political class, Mamouri said.

He added that Iraq's elites have long operated by balancing between Tehran and Washington, but Washington now wants to eliminate the gray area.

“Trump's warning is not solely about Maliki. It is a declaration that the period of strategic ambiguity in Iraq has ended. The US no longer wants Iraq to balance; it demands clarity,” said Mamouri.

“Whether Baghdad can produce leadership capable of navigating this challenging environment will determine not only the next government but also Iraq's position in the next phase of regional conflict," he added.

* Writing by Selcuk Uysal