• Incumbent seen as ‘experienced actor in regional diplomacy, and a seasoned leader that the greater region needs despite calls for generational change,’ says political commentator Calixte Kanamugire

• ‘The longer-term outlook will depend on the government’s ability to manage economic and social pressures,’ Central Africa researcher Nirvaly Mooloo tells Anadolu

KIGALI, Rwanda

Voting began Sunday in the Republic of Congo’s presidential election, with longtime incumbent Denis Sassou Nguesso, 82, widely seen as the favorite among seven candidates.

Polls opened at 6 am (0500GMT) and will remain open until 6 pm (1700GMT). More than 2.6 million registered voters aged 18 and above are eligible to cast their ballots.

Sassou Nguesso first took power in 1979, lost the 1992 election and went into exile in France before returning in 1997 to seize power in an armed uprising that toppled former Prime Minister Pascal Lissouba.

He has since dominated politics, and is seeking a fifth straight term after victories in 2002, 2009, 2016 and 2021, when he won more than 88% of the vote, following 2015 constitutional changes that reset term limits and removed the presidential age cap.

He faces six challengers, including former lawmaker Mabio Mavoungou Zinga and veteran legislator Joseph Kignoumbi Kia Mboungou, while two major opposition candidates boycotted the vote because of alleged unfair practices.

Two prominent challengers from the disputed 2016 election, Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko and Andre Okombi Salissa, remain jailed on 20-year sentences for “endangering state security.”

A candidate with an absolute majority will be declared the winner of the elections, or in an unlikely event, a run-off will be called between the two top candidates.

Nguesso’s longstanding rule

Nirvaly Mooloo, a Central Africa researcher at Africa’s Institute for Security Studies, predicts that the election will likely go to Nguesso, who has dominated the Republic of Congo's politics for more than four decades.

The ruling Congolese Labour Party (PCT) retains strong influence, while the opposition remains fragmented and unable to mount a coordinated challenge, she said.

“In the short term, the election will likely reinforce political continuity under Denis Sassou Nguesso. However, the longer-term outlook will depend on the government’s ability to manage economic and social pressures,” Mooloo told Anadolu.

Beyond the results, Mooloo points to rising socio-economic frustration, with youth unemployment around 40%, persistent poverty and a narrowing civic space.

“While the electoral outcome may appear predictable, the deeper political question lies beyond the ballot box, in how the government responds to the growing expectations and frustrations of a disillusioned youth populace,” she said.

Calixte Kanamugire, a Rwandan political commentator, said Nguesso has been able to sustain a hold on power by using oil revenue, being able to finance extensive political networks and thereby securing loyalty from the elite.

“He is viewed as an experienced actor in regional diplomacy, and a seasoned leader that the greater region needs despite calls for generational change. Besides, he has been credited for bringing a degree of stability back to the country following the civil war in the 1990s,” Kanamugire told Anadolu.

Succession uncertainty

For Mooloo, Nguesso’s longevity highlights a key regional challenge, reflecting the difficulty of political renewal and leadership transition in systems long dominated by powerful incumbents who seek to stay in power.

Amid the succession debate, Mooloo thinks a peaceful transfer of power is possible.

“But it will depend largely on how succession is managed within the ruling elite. At present, there is no universally accepted successor within the ruling PCT,” she said.

One figure frequently mentioned when succession comes up is Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso, the president’s son, who serves as International Cooperation Minister.

But analysts said his potential succession could face resistance from influential figures within the political establishment.

“Ultimately, the stability of any future transition will depend on whether the ruling elite can manage internal competition while also responding to broader social and political demands,” said Mooloo.