FACTBOX – Africa scrambles to manage Iran war energy shock

ISTANBUL

The ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliation are triggering ripple effects across Africa.

Governments are scrambling to cushion fuel shortages, surging pump prices and supply disruptions after the conflict disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries about a fifth of global oil and gas.

Several African nations rely heavily on fuel imports from the Gulf, leaving them vulnerable to global supply shocks.

Seychelles, Uganda, Mauritius, and Kenya source more than half of their energy from the region, while big markets such as South Africa and Nigeria import billions of dollars’ worth annually, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a global firm tracking trade flows.

From subsidy expansions and tax cuts to emergency fuel imports and electricity rationing, authorities across the region have rolled out a patchwork of measures as higher shipping costs, inflation and transport disruptions threaten to push up food prices and strain already fragile economies.

Here is a snapshot of how the continent is responding to fuel shortages, price spikes and supply disruptions triggered by the war:

Botswana

Botswana raised fuel prices from March 28. Energy Minister Bogolo Kenewendo said the National Petroleum Fund was “not in a position to cushion pump prices any longer.”

She said importers and wholesalers currently hold 43.5 million liters of fuel, with additional supplies in transit, while strategic reserves provide only a limited safety buffer. The government is expanding storage at Francistown and Ghanzi to raise national reserves to 46.2 days, with plans for Tshele Hills to bring total coverage across all three sites to 102 days.

Plans are also underway to lease coastal storage in Mozambique and Namibia to reduce the risk of supply disruptions.

Cameroon

Cameroon has tightened control over petroleum imports.

The government is putting international traders in charge of fuel imports, while the Hydrocarbon Price Stabilization Fund oversees how supplies are divided.

An international tender has been issued to secure millions of barrels of refined fuel, with shipments expected between April and June.

Cameroon is among the African markets which receive refined fuel shipments from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia has imposed a priority fuel allocation system and established a special monitoring unit to manage distribution.

Trade Minister Kassahun Gofe said diesel prices have jumped from $80 to $230 per barrel and gasoline from $70 to $150.

Meanwhile, daily diesel supply halved from 9.2 million liters to 4.5 million, he said.

To mitigate the impact, the government is providing roughly $1.67 billion in subsidies.

Fuel distribution will prioritize public transport, agriculture, major manufacturers, export shipments, and essential government projects.

Ghana

The National Petroleum Authority set new price floors for April 1, raising petrol to 13.30 cedis ($1.21) per liter, diesel to 17.10 cedis ($1.55), and liquefied petroleum gas to 10.71 cedis ($0.97) per kilogram.

President John Dramani Mahama said the government is looking for ways to reduce the impact of higher fuel prices on consumers, including cutting profit margins in the fuel supply chain and using a new 1-cedi fuel levy.

Ghana is also among the destinations for March fuel exports from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery.

Kenya

Kenya kept fuel prices unchanged for the March–April cycle by using the Petroleum Development Levy to offset increases caused by global market price rises.

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority kept super petrol at 178.28 shillings ($1.37) per liter, diesel at 166.54 shillings ($1.28), and kerosene at 152.78 shillings ($1.17) in Nairobi.

Energy Minister Opiyo Wandayi said import arrangements have secured supplies through April, as authorities explore additional sourcing, including from Dangote Refinery.

Mauritius

Energy Minister Patrick Gervais Assirvaden warned of an energy crisis that could surpass the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The government secured an emergency tanker from Singapore carrying 33,500 metric tons of fuel due to arrive April 1 at Port Louis. A second vessel will bring 32,000 tons later in April,

The government has formed a high-level crisis committee and warned electricity use may be restricted in high-consumption areas.

An energy supply agreement is expected to be signed with India in July.

Namibia

Namibia has raised fuel prices starting April 1 amid soaring global oil costs and a weaker Namibian dollar.

Petrol is up 2.50 Namibian dollars ($0.15) per liter, and both diesel grades increased by 4 Namibian dollars ($0.24), setting Walvis Bay prices at 22.08 Namibian dollars ($1.30) for petrol and around 23.7 Namibian dollars ($1.40) for diesel.

To ease the burden on consumers, the government will absorb about 500 million Namibian dollars ($29.5 million) in under-recoveries and halve fuel levies for three months through June.

Nigeria

Petrol prices in Nigeria have risen sharply since late February. They increased from about 730–900 naira ($0.53–$0.65) per liter to 1,200–1,400 naira ($0.87–$1.01) in many areas by mid-to-late March.

This marks a rise of roughly 35–65%, depending on the location. Diesel prices have also increased by about 30–50% in some regions.

The hikes followed multiple refinery price increases by Dangote Refinery.

To ease regional shortages, Dangote exported tons of refined fuel to Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Tanzania, and Togo.

Rising fuel costs are pushing up transport fares and inflation. The government has avoided nationwide rationing.

South Africa

Fuel prices were raised on April 1. Petroleum Minister Gwede Mantashe said a surge in global oil prices, a weaker rand and higher shipping costs drove the increase.

Petrol increased by 3.06 rand ($0.18) per liter, while diesel rose by 7.37–7.51 rand ($0.43–$0.44) per liter. Liquefied petroleum gas also increased by 1.08 rand (over $0.06) per kilogram.

To ease the impact, the government introduced a temporary 3.00 rand ($0.18) per liter reduction in the general fuel levy, effective from April 1 to May 5. Prices vary across the country’s 54 magisterial district pricing zones.

South Sudan

Power rationing was introduced in the capital Juba in late March after the Juba Electricity Distribution Company said fuel shortages forced it to manage limited generation supplies.

The utility announced daily rotational outages to conserve diesel for essential services, with some areas experiencing 12-hour power cuts.

Tanzania

Fuel prices surged after the Energy and Water Utilities Regulatory Authority raised nationwide cap prices from April 1.

Petrol rose to 3,820 Tanzanian shillings ($1.47) per liter from 2,864 ($1.10) in March.

Diesel increased to 3,806 Tanzanian shillings ($1.46) from 2,858 ($1.10).

Kerosene climbed to 3,684 Tanzanian shillings ($1.42) from 2,932 ($1.13).

Authorities said national supplies remain adequate, with stocks at one point covering about 78 days of petrol, 50 days of diesel and 91 days of aviation fuel as of March 23.

The government has tightened depot monitoring to prevent hoarding and smuggling, while securing additional imports, including shipments from Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery.

Zambia

The government declared a national emergency.

It suspended excise duty while zero-rating value-added tax (VAT) on petrol and diesel imports from April 1 to June 30 to limit price increases.

President Hakainde Hichilema warned oil companies against hoarding fuel and said licenses could be revoked.

Officials said stocks in mid-March covered about 22 days of petrol and 60 days of diesel, while steps were being taken to secure additional supplies.

Zimbabwe

Fuel prices surged through March after two sharp adjustments, pushing both blended petrol and diesel above $2 per liter for the first time and marking increases of more than 40% within a month.

The government responded by approving plans to raise the ethanol blend in petrol from 5% to 20% to stretch supplies and reduce reliance on imports.

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube also said authorities are reviewing fuel-related taxes and levies to ease costs.

Officials said national fuel stocks remain sufficient, with more than three months of supply available.