ISTANBUL

The US is struggling to maintain its economic footing in Africa after a decade of fluctuating relations, while rising bilateral trade still represents only a “symbolic share” of total US trade, an academic said.

Yunus Turhan, an associate professor of international relations at Ankara Haci Bayram Veli University, in the Turkish capital, told Anadolu that US-Africa trade showed sharp swings between 2014 and 2025, citing US Census Bureau data.

“US exports to Africa reached $38 billion and imports $34.6 billion in 2014, when the US ran a trade surplus, but this changed rapidly the following year, when exports fell to $27.1 billion and imports to $25.3 billion,” he said. In 2016, exports declined further to $22.2 billion, while imports rose to $26.5 billion, he added.

Turhan said exports remained broadly stable in 2017 at around $22 billion, while imports climbed to $33.4 billion, driven by higher energy and raw material purchases.

US exports reached $26 billion and imports hit a record $35 billion in 2018, widening the trade deficit. In 2019, imports slipped to $30.1 billion while exports were largely unchanged.

“In 2020, during the global pandemic, exports fell to $21.9 billion and imports to $23.7 billion, but recovery followed in 2021, when exports rose to $27.7 billion and imports to $37.6 billion,” Turhan said, adding that imports peaked at $41.7 billion in 2022.

He said exports declined to $28.6 billion and imports to $38.5 billion in 2023, before exports rose to $32.3 billion and imports to $39.5 billion in 2024. As of November 2025, exports had reached $34 billion while imports eased to $37.8 billion, he added.

US-Africa trade has averaged about $70-80 billion annually over the past decade, Turhan said.

“The US’ trade volume in 2024 was around $7.37 trillion, so Africa’s share in US trade remained around 1.1%,” he said. “This shows that the trade remains at a symbolic level.”

“The US trade in 2024 was around $7.37 trillion, meaning Africa’s share was roughly 1.1%,” he said. “This shows that trade remains at a symbolic level.”

Turhan said the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) had contributed significantly to trade since 2000, allowing 32 African countries to export more than 1,800 products duty-free to the US. He said US exports to Africa totaled about $500 billion between 2002 and 2022 under the program, and noted that the US House of Representatives recently passed a bill to extend AGOA for three years.

“Both African leaders and the Trump administration want to go beyond foreign aid relations and instate a model that focuses on trade and investment in particular,” he said.

“Both African leaders and the Trump administration want to move beyond relations based on foreign aid and toward a model focused on trade and investment,” he said.

Turhan said US-Africa trade remains heavily concentrated in oil, adding that trade between the two regions rose 86% during the AGOA period, compared with a rise of 168% in overall US global trade.

He said China’s trade with Africa reached $314 billion in 2025, up 17.8% year on year, citing data from China’s customs authority, while Russia-Africa trade remained limited at $24.5 billion in 2024, largely consisting of Russian exports.

“The US is in a global competition with both China and Russia when it comes to Africa — Russia and China vote together on African issues at the UN, while tensions between the two countries in Africa remain limited, and their developing bilateral relations is the last thing Washington would like,” he said. “An Africa in which Russia is engaged militarily and China is boosting its economic and political ties would be a place that the US cannot replicate with its traditional allies like the UK, France, or Germany.”

“The US is competing globally with both China and Russia in Africa,” Turhan said. “China and Russia vote together on African issues at the United Nations, and their expanding economic and security engagement is the last thing Washington wants to see.”

He said the US should seek closer cooperation with partners such as Türkiye as competition with China and Russia intensifies, adding that Washington aims to balance development goals with strategic rivalry in its Africa policy.

Turhan said the administration of former US President Joe Biden framed Africa as an equal development partner rather than an aid recipient, while the Obama administration emphasized institutional cooperation and the first Trump administration deprioritized the continent entirely.