LONDON
An economist specializing on Turkey at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Heike Harmgart, on Monday said that "compared to its neighbors, Turkey got out of the (global) economic crisis by getting stronger".
In an exclusive interview with the Anadolu Agency (AA), Harmgart said that they saw a great potential in Turkey.
EBRD's prediction for Turkey's growth in 2012 is lower than that of the Turkish government, Harmgart noted.
The EBRD announced Turkey's growth rate in 2012 as 2.5 percent while the Turkish government expects a growth figure of 4.5 percent in 2012, Harmgart stated.
Turkey is not completely exempt from the crisis in the Euro zone. The situation in the Euro zone has negative effects on Turkey's exports and imports, Harmgart indicated.
We expect a slow down in domestic demand in Turkey. The loans provided to the private sector in Turkey went down in 2012, Harmgart said.
The slow down in growth will be a result of both global and domestic factors. The Turkish economy will grow but on a smaller scale compared to 2011, Harmgart noted.
Inflation figures in Turkey in 2011 were in double digits. Inflation in Turkey in 2012 will continue to be in double digits, Harmgart emphasized.
I realize that double digit inflation figures are much higher than the Turkish Central Bank's inflation target of 6 percent. The Turkish Central Bank is highly successful in meeting the demands and expectations. They have tightened Turkey's monetary policy since October 2011. Nevertheless, we do not believe such a policy is sufficient. The latest inflation figure in Turkey was 11.1 percent. This figure will not drop below 6 percent. I do not think that the monetary policy is tight enough to take inflation figures below double digits, Harmgart said.
-"Europe has many things to win from Turkey"-
The Turkish economy came out of the global crisis by getting stronger when compared to its neighbors. As could be understood by the investments the EBRD made in Turkey, there is a great potential for Turkish companies to improve their exports performance. The EBRD has been investing in Turkey for the past three years. Turkey needs to have a more competitive exports sector and needs to diversify its exports market in order to deal with its current accounts deficit, Harmgart stated.
On Turkey and its EU process, Harmgart said that membership in the EU triggers reforms and integration.
When you look at the economic growth in Turkey, you can see that Europe has many things to win from Turkey, Harmgart underlined.
The EBRD is active in Turkey with an office in Istanbul since 2009. The bank will open a new office in Ankara at the end of May.
The EBRD has invested more than 1.5 billion euros in Turkey for over 50 projects.
(Reporting by Asli Aral)
