31 March 2016•Update: 12 April 2016
By Rafiu Ajakaye
LAGOS, Nigeria
For years every time Nigeria's Boko Haram released an audio or video message, it did so either to counter a government narrative about the insurgency in the Lake Chad region or to simply sell its own. The video from last Thursday, March 24 – purportedly by group leader Abubakar Shekau – did not quite fit this bill.
In the video, a somber Shekau declared that "the end has come for me" while also saying he was still alive. But the poorly shot video was significantly bereft of the usual Shekau trademarks: his repeated taunting of Nigerian officials, chewing stick, constant boasting about the strength of the movement, and his rifle.
Many analysts dismissed the video as fake. They pointed to a number of inconsistencies in the footage, such as Shekau referring to the group by its old name in place of the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP), the name it adopted last year after it pledged allegiance to Daesh.
"The insurgents have in conversations I have had and others have had with them denounced this video and said it is not from them," Fulan Nasrullah, a prominent expert on Boko Haram, told Anadolu Agency.
Nasrullah, quoting intelligence sources, said the video appeared to have been shot using old footage of Shekau.
Ryan Cummings, a top African security analyst, agrees.
"I question its authenticity. The image of Shekau seems to have been superimposed, along with the rayat al-uqab flag in the left-hand corner," Cummings said.
He also noted that the video also contains the old Boko Haram insignia which was discontinued when the group became ISWAP.
"It is also suspicious that Shekau makes a video appearance given that he has not done so since pledging allegiance to ISIS. All his messages have been in the form of audio," he added.
With flags raised over the video’s authenticity, some have suggested that it was produced to bolster Nigerian government claims that it has “technically defeated” the insurgents. The government now says the next phase is to rebuild the vastly damaged northeastern region.
If this was the reason for the video, it was a huge success, as most Nigerians relished seeing the once boastful Shekau appearing miserably subdued.
Nasrullah believes the "obvious suspect [behind the video] would be the government, since it supports their ‘technically defeated’ narrative if interpreted the way it has been".
But could the video be real?
Nigeria's defense headquarters has neither dismissed the video as fake nor confirmed it as genuine.
"The said video clips should ... be discounted as it could be another ploy or antics of the terrorists to keep our innocent citizen off their current security alertness to maximize casualties if attacked," defense spokesman Brig-Gen. Rabe Abubakar said in a statement.
Some analysts say it could possibly be genuine, and that the oddities in the video may tell how badly hit the insurgents are or imply a radical shift within the ranks of the militants and their relationship with Daesh.
"I cannot understand why some are quick to dismiss the video as fake," Patrick Agbambu, president of Security Watch Africa, told Anadolu Agency.
Agbambu said he had visited Borno and Yobe, the two northeastern states where the insurgents had held vast territories, and can confirm that they have been "decimated" to the extent claimed by the army.
"The Nigerian army has terribly degraded the militants, including their IT capabilities. Their supply routes have been depleted or blocked. Their infrastructure has been damaged. This could affect everything. [Nigerian President Muhammadu] Buhari's shuttle diplomacy may well have played some role too," he added.
Despite this, the analyst warned Nigeria against complacency, as the video could be a strategy and the insurgency may well "still be evolving and adapting".
If the video is genuine, Cummings says it means a lot – although he insists this conclusion is far-fetched.
"In terms of its significance, it could signal perhaps a change in leadership or perhaps even focus for Boko Haram," he stated with a caveat that he doesn't believe the video is "legitimate".
