- Report finds 89% of digital disruptions stem from cascading effects, with impacts reaching up to 10 times more people than initial shocks
- ITU deputy secretary general warns 'quiet' disruptions can spread across systems, affecting services far beyond their point of origin
- It’s not that there's no knowledge of these risks, Tomas Lamanauskas tells Anadolu, adding that challenge is connecting this awareness to specific situations and ability to act
Failures in digital infrastructure could trigger cascading disruptions across sectors and borders, potentially escalating into what it describes as a “digital pandemic,” warns a new expert report released by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and Sciences Po Paris School of International Affairs.
The report, When digital systems fail, released on Tuesday, outlines how modern societies have become deeply dependent on interconnected digital systems that remain vulnerable to shocks ranging from natural hazards to infrastructure breakdowns, including solar storms, space debris, and extreme weather.
It finds that up to 89% of digital disruptions stem not from the initial shock, but from cascading effects across systems, while the number of people affected can be up to "10 times higher than those initially exposed."
That is "the nature of digital risks," ITU Deputy Secretary-General Tomas Lamanauskas told Anadolu ahead of the report’s release. “Something that happens seemingly innocuously or far away from you suddenly starts influencing your daily life.”
Invisible risks, real-world consequences
Unlike earthquakes or floods, digital disruptions often unfold without visible warning signs until they reach a critical threshold, making them harder to detect and respond to.
“When natural disasters happen, people see them,” Lamanauskas said. “The thing that the report highlights is that digital disruptions a lot of times are quiet.”
Failures in distant infrastructure, from submarine cable cuts to data center outages, can quickly ripple through essential services, disrupting banking, healthcare, transport and communications.
The report outlines scenarios in which these failures cascade across systems. A solar storm could disrupt satellites and power grids, halting financial transactions and communications, while a heat wave could overwhelm data centers, affecting hospitals and emergency services.
Damage to undersea cables, which carry more than 99% of global internet traffic, could isolate entire regions for weeks, triggering economic and logistical disruptions.
Interdependence at the core of risk
At the heart of these risks lies a dense web of interdependencies between critical systems.
The report identifies four core infrastructure domains -- power grids, submarine cables, satellites, and data centers -- whose interconnections underpin global digital systems.
Lamanauskas said the systems people rely on daily depend on multiple layers of infrastructure working together.
Even when one system appears functional, disruptions elsewhere can render services unusable.
He said apps can fail even when local networks appear to be “live,” as disruptions in less visible parts of the system can still prevent them from functioning, giving the example of a mobile operator that appears operational while services remain unavailable.
The report stresses that these risks are not new, but insufficiently connected to action.
“It’s not that information and knowledge (about the risks) doesn’t exist." Lamanauskas said. “The problem is connecting that information and knowledge with assessment of the specific situation and then with the ability to act on it."
"That is, I think, the challenge that we still have," he added.
In highly interconnected systems, failures do not remain isolated. They can interact and amplify one another, spreading across sectors rather than staying contained.
Resilience can become vulnerability
While digital systems are designed to be resilient through redundancy and distributed architecture, the report warns that these same features can also increase fragility when multiple disruptions occur.
“I think the problem is that the source of the strength in the daily (experience) could become a source of weakness,” Lamanauskas said, explaining that systems built on assumptions of backup and redundancy can fail when multiple disruptions occur simultaneously, overwhelming their capacity to respond.
The report says recovery may take months when critical infrastructure is damaged, as key components such as transformers require long replacement timelines, prolonging disruptions across dependent systems.
Preparedness gaps and coordination challenges
Despite growing focus on cyber threats, the report highlights a lack of preparedness for non-intentional disruptions caused by natural hazards or infrastructure failures.
Lamanauskas said the report focuses on non-intentional risks, noting that cyber threats are “very well covered elsewhere,” while physical and systemic vulnerabilities receive less attention.
He added that structures to address large-scale, low-probability risks are still not fully in place.
Addressing these risks requires coordination between governments, private companies, and international organizations, particularly as much of the infrastructure is privately owned.
“It’s very important for all of them to work together,” he said.
The report also warns that vulnerabilities are unevenly distributed, with countries that have limited infrastructure redundancy, including small island developing states, facing more acute risks during major disruptions.
Awareness as first line of defense
Both the report and Lamanauskas stress that awareness is a critical first step in strengthening resilience.
“Our purpose is simply to make sure that people know about it,” he said.
The report also highlights that societies have become so reliant on digital systems that their ability to function without them has diminished, as analogue skills and fallback mechanisms are no longer widely maintained or tested.
Lamanauskas said societies may still need a basic level of analogue skills, as heavy reliance on digital systems could make it harder to cope during disruptions.
He added that better understanding of risks can help reduce panic and improve response.
“If people know what’s happening, they can manage this,” he said. “Information reduces panic and allows us to be more resilient.”
The report calls for stronger coordination, updated risk management frameworks, and greater resilience across sectors, alongside efforts to better identify risks, map cross-sector dependencies, and improve preparedness.
It also urges strengthening international standards, maintaining analogue fallback capacity and enhancing coordination on critical infrastructure such as space systems, submarine cables, and data centers. In addition, it highlights the need to build societal resilience, trust and shared situational awareness through greater global cooperation.
“Whether these risks remain manageable or escalate into systemic crises will depend on how these priorities are translated into action,” the report said.
