BRUSSELS
EU Global Trends Report said "Turkey will take an influential role in the globalising world by 2030."
According to "Global Trends 2030" report, Turkey will thrive. According to EU experts, Turkey will be taking its place in the globalising world by 2030 but there are doubts over Turkey's full membership to the European Union.
The 2010 European Union Budget provided the European Commission for two years with necessary financing to explore the 'long-term trends on major policy issues facing the EU' as a pilot project. Project shaped up the European Union Institute for Security Studies' report. Report highlights that by 2030, there will be a multipolar world and none of the countries will be able to carry on dominating individually.
The report underlines that the US is likely to be the world's major military power, however China's military will keep growing. Present trends seem to show that there won't be single hegemonic world power. US and China will be the most influential countries of 2030. Besides, India will keep gaining power. Additionally, Russia and Japan will lose the great power status by 2030.
Polycentrism will head towards Asia with the accompany of economic power, where over half of the world's population will be concentrated by 2030. Report supposes that China will be the largest economic power with 19 percent share of world gross domestic product. Rising middle-power countries will become more prominent. These include Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa who are members of the G20 already.
Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey are more likely to take a bigger role by 2030 cause these counties have potentials on improving their social and economical modernization as well as human development, said the report.
On its view about Turkey, the report says, "Turkey has been a middle power for most of the last two centuries, and its elites and people are confident about the country's global and regional position. Current trends suggest Turkey will maintain and even bolster its status as a middle power in demographic, economic, territorial and military terms. Indicators on economic growth, political stability and democratisation, political and cultural influence abroad, and citizen and elite confidence point in this direction. Turkey is also likely to become a pivotal regional power. Turkish citizens, capital and institutions will continue to integrate with the global economy and network society; and ties with the EU and Turkey's immediate neighbours and other regions will become deeper and denser. The recent emphasis on Turkey's role in the Middle East should be balanced by an awareness of the country's relations with the EU, the Balkans, the Black Sea, Russia, the Caucasus, Central Asia, the Mediterranean and the US, and of its evolving and newly emergent links with the rest of Asia, Africa and the Americas."
Turkey's role on globalizing world will be shaped by its work and interests within international groups such as NATO, G20, the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation and the EU. Report points out, "It is difficult to predict whether Turkey will join the EU by 2030 as there are both push and pull factors. Turkey may opt to work with different countries to further its interests in a rapidly changing Middle East, but this is unlikely to become an alternative to EU integration. To pursue a middle power career, Turkey must address key weaknesses, including unresolved minority issues (Kurdish and Armenian claims and rights), energy dependency, an environmentally unsustainable development model and the mismanagement of natural resources, human development shortcomings, and its exposure to potentially devastating seismic activity."
The report states that European countries such as Britain, France and Germany will gain power in a polycentric world especially if the pace of European integration is not cracked. However, they may take an individual global role and be recognized as strategic players in their own right. Furthermore, if the European Union keeps developing, improves the pace of economic growth and finds solutions to the debt crisis, they will become more stronger within the international arena and be more influential globally.
The report states that by 2030 all the Balkan countries are likely to be members of the EU, however there will be problems over border conflicts and internal disputes, particularly in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The report also mentions the Cyprus issue and Turkish-Armenian reconciliations. It states that "the division of Cyprus could be mitigated by greater convergence between Turkey and the EU, but the difficulties attending the process of enlargement to Turkey may persist and render the solution of the Cyprus question more problematic. And Turkish-Armenian reconciliation could pave the way for a resolution of the conflict, although this may be difficult to achieve in the coming decade."
