AMSTERDAM / ISTANBUL

Dutch historian and Russia expert Hubert Smeets highlighted Türkiye's strategic importance, commending its role as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks set to take place this Thursday in Istanbul.

“I think the position of Türkiye is important,” Smeets told Anadolu. Having worked as a journalist in both Moscow and Kyiv for many years, Smeets noted that due to Türkiye’s relationship with Russia and the way Russia positions itself toward Türkiye, the country could play a critical role in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

He said Türkiye holds a key diplomatic advantage, as it could pose a serious challenge to Russia by closing the Bosphorus for the Russian fleet, “a kind of leverage that the Turkish government, I think, never used,” he said.

Smeets’ insights into this week’s dramatic events have been edited lightly for clarity.

Putin’s presence or absence in Istanbul carries ‘symbolic’ meaning

Smeets voiced uncertainty about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would personally take part in the talks in Istanbul, saying: “My expectation that Putin himself will be in Istanbul and will join the negotiations are very low. I think that Putin doesn't want to be part of the negotiations in Türkiye, in Istanbul. Because he wants to have some space, some political space, to deny the first results from Istanbul. In a symbolic way, quite a lot.

“Because (if he attends) then Putin makes clear that he is ready to talk with a person he does not recognize as the legitimate president of Ukraine. They are always talking in Moscow, in the Kremlin, about neo-Nazis in Ukraine, about fascists in Kyiv, about a coup d'etat, which gave them power. They are always talking about the curators of Ukraine, talking about the West. So, they already made clear for a few years that they do not take Ukraine seriously as an independent sovereign state. If he (Putin) comes to Istanbul, then he is talking with a man he didn't recognize for the last three years.

Pointing to the possibility of a ceasefire, he said: “If Putin arrives in Istanbul and if there are talks between the two delegations, Ukrainian and Russian delegation, then I think the prospects for a ceasefire are really seriously increasing.”

‘For Russia, Europe is the main enemy, but also the main target’

Smeets emphasized that Istanbul is a better venue for peace talks than any European capital, as locations like Berlin or London would be unacceptable to Russia.

“Because for Russia, Europe is the main enemy, but also the main target. Since the Congress of Vienna (1814-1815), Russia has had a foreign policy which can be summarized by just one thing: There can be no peace in Europe without Russia. So, it is Russia, according to the Russian diplomacy, that defines the conditions of peace in Europe,” Smeets said.

Emphasizing that Russia positions Türkiye differently from Europe and doesn’t see it as a threat, he said: “Turkey is not an enemy for Russia in that sense, as Europe is, let's say, the playing ground and political target for the Kremlin. Turkey is only a member of NATO. But that is, I think, not a very important reason for the Russian government to see Turkey as an enemy, like it sees Europe as an enemy. So I think the position of Turkey is important. It is not a nuclear superpower, but Turkey is a serious military and industrial power.”

Ukraine and Türkiye

“The Ukrainians, of course, are also very fond of good relations with Turkey,” Smeets said, noting that Türkiye is also important due to the Bosporus: “Also because the Black Sea is for Ukraine even more important than for Russia in military and commercial terms. The Black Sea is the only access overseas for Ukraine.”

2022 Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul

On the March 2022 peace talks in Istanbul, less than a month after the war began, which were abruptly halted, Smeets said: “Putin and the Russian government for three years (have been) pretending, suggesting that there was almost a compromise achieved in Istanbul in 2022.”

He said there were critical disagreements between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations during the 2022 talks, adding: “First, about the powers that had to, let's say, to survey, that had to check a ceasefire. For example, Ukraine pressed, for Ukraine it was absolutely a condition that Turkey would be one of those parties that would monitor the ceasefire. Russia was categorically against Turkey as a monitoring and observing power and presented Belarus as an alternative for Turkey. And the second issue which was not solved in Istanbul in 2022 was the no-fly zone.”

Emphasizing that Ukraine was in a weaker position during the 2022 talks, he added: “In 2022 Ukraine was on the brink of disaster. It had defended Kyiv with success, but there was no perspective, no prospect for the successes the Ukrainian army realized later on in the war. Moreover, in 2022, during the talks in Istanbul, the news about the war crimes in Bucha (city near Kyiv) became public. And that also, of course, influenced the atmosphere in Kyiv very much.”

“So the Ukrainian position now, I think, is stronger than the Ukrainian position was in 2022 in Istanbul,” Smeets said.