ISTANBUL

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a delegation of top European leaders are set to meet Donald Trump on Monday, two key issues – security guarantees and concessions – loom large over the peace talks aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

The high-stakes meeting to be held in Washington, DC, will also be attended by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

The meeting between the European leaders and the US president comes shortly after Trump's three-hour closed-door meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, where Putin said they reached an "understanding."

Monday's meeting is expected to include the US offering security guarantees to Ukraine similar to the NATO framework, in exchange for concessions such as Kyiv's abandoning of its ambitions for NATO membership, and of reclaiming the Russian-occupied Crimea.

Security guarantees

A key issue to be discussed at Monday's meeting at the White House would be the US offering security guarantees to Ukraine.

According to Steve Witkoff, US special presidential envoy for peace missions, Russia has agreed to allow the US and Europe to give Ukraine "robust" security guarantees as part of a potential peace deal.

Speaking to Fox News, Witkoff said Washington could provide Kyiv with Article 5-style security guarantees outside NATO's framework.

"The United States is potentially prepared to be able to give Article 5 security guarantees, but not from NATO, directly from the United States and other European countries," he said.

Under Article 5 of the NATO agreement, an armed attack on one member country is considered an attack on all its 32 members.

The member countries will come to the defense of an ally that comes under attack, and “will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary."

Ukraine is not a member of NATO but has been pushing for its membership since the Russia-Ukraine war started in February 2022.

Zelenskyy, describing the US' security guarantee offer as "historic," wrote on US social media company X: "We all share a strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably."

Stressing permanent and long-lasting peace, he said that the security guarantees should not be similar to those offered to Ukraine in 1994 through the Budapest memorandum, which gave assurances to Kyiv in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapons state.

"And peace must be lasting. Not like it was years ago, when Ukraine was forced to give up Crimea and part of our East—part of Donbas—and Putin simply used it as a springboard for a new attack," Zelenskyy said.

"Or when Ukraine was given so-called 'security guarantees' in 1994, but they didn't work. Of course, Crimea should not have been given up then, just as Ukrainians did not give up Kyiv, Odesa, or Kharkiv after 2022."

Concessions

Territorial dispute remains an important factor in the peace talks, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanding that both Russia and Ukraine “have to make concessions” for a deal that would end the three-year-old war.

He identified key remaining issues from Friday’s summit in Anchorage, Alaska, saying: "Where the territorial lines are going to be, questions about long-term security guarantees, and who Ukraine can have military alliances with."

While the US had hinted at a deal with Russia that would include “some swapping, changes in land," Ukraine has so far not agreed to hand over any of its territories.

According to Witkoff, Russia made concessions on all five unilaterally annexed Ukrainian regions during Friday's Alaska summit.

"There are five regions here. It's always, in our view, been the crux of the deal," Witkoff told CNN, referring to Crimea, and the Ukrainian regions it annexed in late 2022 – Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia.

"The Russians made some concessions at the table with regard to all five of those regions," he said.

Meanwhile, Trump posted a message on his Truth Social platform, telling Zelenskyy to give up Crimea and join NATO ahead of the Washington summit.

"President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!" he said.