OPINION - AI tech as geopolitical force and the American tech anchor in Armenia

- The author is an associate professor of international relations at Ege University in Izmir, Türkiye.

ISTANBUL

We are living in an age where cutting-edge AI models are introduced on a near-daily basis. Tech giants such as Anthropic, Google, Meta, and OpenAI invest billions of dollars to develop these new models. At its core, an AI model – a large language model (LLM) in this case – is a predictive algorithm that estimates the next token – simply a part of a word – based on carefully derived numerical parameters. These parameters are not magic; they are simply computed from vast existing datasets – such as Wikipedia articles – by iteratively calculating the numerical weights assigned to the ordering of tokens. Computational power, or the chips that enable these complex calculations, is key to understanding the driving forces and political economy of the AI boom. Without capable chips, even the most sophisticated algorithm is useless. That is why Taiwan, home to state-of-the-art chip manufacturing technology, and Nvidia – one of the world's largest chip design companies – are not merely pivotal actors in AI advancement, but strategic geopolitical assets.

The Trump administration is acutely aware of this reality. It is one of the central reasons why the US government backs Taiwan so strongly. Yet Taiwan is not the intellectual engine of chip technology; to borrow a literary analogy, Taiwan is the printing house, not the author. The final product – the book – is conceived by the author, though no reader can access it without a press. Nvidia and similar companies occupy precisely this authorial role, designing chips capable of extraordinarily complex calculations. The US leverages these chips as a geopolitical instrument. AI is "rewiring the world economy," and controlling access to the physical hardware gives the US power to tilt the geopolitical balance in its favor. Washington exercises this leverage through its regulatory authority to approve the export of restricted, cutting-edge technology to select countries. Because these chips are unavailable in most of the world, access to them is a political decision grounded in "institutional trust," not merely a commercial transaction.

The Armenian project: Scale and ambition

Such a move is now in full thrust in the Caucasus. The US approved the export of 41,000 Nvidia GPUs to Armenia, marking the second phase of building an "AI factory" in the country. When the project is completed, the grand total will reach 50,000 GPUs – a capacity that would rank it among the largest AI clusters in the world. This figure comes from Firebird AI, the project's lead company, and should be treated with some caution pending independent verification – but the scale of the ambition is nonetheless significant. Unlike traditional data centers that merely store data, an AI factory provides the massive computational power required to train complex models and run real-time simulations — critical sovereign infrastructure that allows a nation to convert its local energy into high-value digital products exportable across the globe.

The targeted geographical location of such a significant US investment may seem puzzling at first glance, but it has a clear strategic logic. Armenia was selected because it can uniquely monetize its energy surplus by converting electricity into high-value, exportable digital tokens. The country hosts a Soviet era nuclear power plant and generates an energy surplus relative to its small population. Though small, this population provides a cost-effective, highly skilled talent pool in mathematics and engineering to manage complex AI infrastructure. The project was also catalyzed by influential Armenian-American tech leaders at companies like Nvidia and Moderna, whose strategic connections secured both the high-end hardware and the necessary US government approvals.

US geopolitical strategy in the Caucasus

Great-power rivalry and the so-called “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (Zangezur Corridor) are equally important factors in Armenia’s selection as host for this AI factory. Strategically, the US views this investment as a high-tech anchor of influence, designed to displace Russian and Iranian dominance in the Caucasus. By integrating Armenia into the Western tech sphere and supporting regional trade corridors that bypass traditional adversaries, the US effectively uses AI as a diplomatic instrument to counter the geopolitical reach of Russia and China. The “Trump Route” and the AI project serve as the physical and digital pillars of a unified US strategy to stabilize the South Caucasus and permanently shift its orientation toward the West. While the transit corridor creates a physical trade bridge between Europe and Asia that bypasses Russia, the AI investment provides a digital bridge that integrates Armenia into the global high-tech ecosystem.

This strategic pivot could potentially integrate Armenia into the Western orbit and fundamentally redefine its economic potential, transforming it from a landlocked, resource-constrained state into a global intelligence exporter. By decoupling GDP from physical population limits, a nation of 3 million could deploy a virtual workforce of AI agents capable of high-level coding, research, and analysis. Over the medium to long term, Armenia could gain a layer of “sovereign AI” security, trading traditional military reliance for high-tech geopolitical relevance. Whether this translates into durable leverage, however, will not depend solely on hardware. Governance quality, regional stability, and the evolving balance of power in the Caucasus will ultimately determine the outcome.

Implications for Türkiye

Perhaps the most complex actor in this picture is Türkiye. On one hand, Ankara stands to be among the greatest beneficiaries of the “Trump Route” – a transit corridor that would position it as a critical logistical hub between Europe and Central Asia, fulfilling a long-standing objective of an uninterrupted land link to the broader Turkic world. On the other hand, the Firebird AI investment also introduces new strategic dynamics for Türkiye.

First, a US-backed technological push could accelerate Armenia’s development in the AI sector, potentially positioning Yerevan as an emerging regional technology hub and intensifying competition in an area where Ankara also seeks to strengthen its leadership. Second, given the involvement of several diaspora figures who have been active in debates surrounding historical issues, there is a possibility that the project’s economic success may further energize advocacy networks in Washington and other capitals.

These developments highlight the importance for Türkiye to continue expanding its own technological ecosystem and diplomatic engagement in parallel.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.