• The author is an American scholar.

ISTANBUL

In 2025, US President Donald Trump roiled politics all over the globe with his controversial decisions and preferences. Trump tells the world every day that he wants to end wars and create peace so that everyone can get on with "business as usual." Whether his prescribed solutions for any particular conflict are effective, workable, or lasting are another issue entirely.

Despite all the turbulence Trump generated, one region clearly benefitted from his policies: the Eastern Mediterranean. In 2025, Trump proved willing to break with the Beltway's received wisdom, reject unproductive policies followed by previous administrations, and trust several vitally important East Med figures that Washington think tankers scorn. The immediate result is that the region's prospects look brighter now than they have for decades.

Hope emerging from despair

The optimism expressed in the previous paragraph is relative, of course. At the beginning of 2025, Israel's horrific annihilation of Gaza continued at full pace; now, a tenuous ceasefire (constantly violated by Israel) is in place, negotiations for Gaza's international security forces are continuing, and Trump seems fully committed to arm-twisting Tel Aviv into accepting Türkiye's role in that force. At the beginning of 2025, Syria's new government was less than a month old and no one knew what the immediate future held; now, Damascus has effectively weathered Israel's attempts to destabilize Syrian society and international sanctions have been lifted, dramatically improving Syria's prospects.

Just as significant, Trump's relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became much more complex than expected. When 2025 opened, Trump and Netanyahu appeared to be bosom buddies firmly aligned on every detail. But throughout 2026, signs of Trump's displeasure with Netanyahu became unmistakable.

Reining in the loose cannon

Netanyahu has abandoned all rationality and seems determined to take his government, maybe even his society, into another Masada. Even Trump lost patience with Netanyahu in the wake of Israel's disastrous attempt to assassinate Hamas' negotiating team in Qatar via an airstrike. In public, Trump is careful to be on message but is not above warning Netanyahu, in front of the cameras, that he should "be reasonable." [1]

Despite this, Netanyahu continues to pursue a course that threatens regional stability. He supports all of the separatist elements in Syria and then uses the resulting violence as an excuse to occupy Syrian territory, bombs Lebanon at will and pressures the Lebanese government, and tries to deny Türkiye a role in Gaza. None of that contributes to Trump's vision of a stable and peaceful Eastern Mediterranean.

Last week, Netanyahu granted political recognition to Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, which elicited immediate and widespread condemnation from the international community, especially in Africa and the Gulf region. Netanyahu's action was pure petulance, a visionless swipe at Türkiye's growing presence in the Horn of Africa. As for Trump, he asked: "Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?"[2]

As the disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu grow, one wonders what the limits are. Trump frequently speaks in front of pro-Israeli groups in the US, and his rhetoric is always firmly pro-Israel. But the 2026 US midterm elections are now 10 months away and the situation in Gaza remains a salient issue for the US public. Large percentages of US Jews now condemn Netanyahu's actions, [3] while Republican Party factions critical of Israel have become more outspoken. Those trends may partially explain why Trump's decisions in the Eastern Mediterranean over the past six months have slowly moved away from Netanyahu's preferences.

Syria, Türkiye, the PKK

When Trump assumed office 11 months ago, no one knew what attitude the second Trump administration would take towards the new Damascus leadership. But only three months elapsed before Trump met Syria's new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, and then took the surprising step of inviting al-Sharaa to the White House in November.[4] Trump's willingness to embrace a man who had once been in US prisons in Iraq was one of the most amazing and positive developments in recent US foreign policy.

As for Türkiye, Trump's choice for US Ambassador to Ankara Tom Barrack made comments to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee during his confirmation hearing indicating that change was in store for US policy towards Türkiye [5]. But when US personnel dealing with Syrian issues were shuffled in September, it became definite that the US' regional policies would also be reoriented [6]. US policy towards Syria had been characterized by spinelessness, ignorance, and dishonesty for the previous decade, so those officials' departure came as a relief. Even though the US still props up the PKK/YPG, far more energy is now accorded to supporting the new Syrian government and Syria's domestic stability.

Now for 2026!

As we step into 2026, caution or pessimism should not obscure the other positive developments in Türkiye's region outside of Syria and Gaza. Azerbaijan's and Armenia's leaders now talk of mutual cooperation [7]. Libya, despite being divided, remains stable and both governments there are now on good terms with Ankara. The PKK's disarmament and dissolution process continues. The construction of a transportation and economic development corridor from the Gulf through Iraq and Türkiye to the Balkans is now well under way [8].

All of those developments either emerged or gained impetus in 2025. So, even though Trump's policies toward other regions are questionable, his decisions toward the Eastern Mediterranean have created new hope. After decades during which the region was associated with bloodshed and chaos, the most oft uttered word in the Eastern Mediterranean as 2026 arrives is, thankfully, stability.

[1] https://www.trtworld.com/article/f0bfa1189948

[2] https://nypost.com/2025/12/26/us-news/trump-not-ready-to-embrace-somaliland-independence-unlike-netanyahu/

[3] https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-nearly-four-in-10-us-jews-say-israel-has-committed-genocide-in-gaza/

[4] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/14/trump-meets-syrias-al-sharaa-eyes-normalisation-of-ties-with-damascus;

[5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/opinion/opinion-the-democratic-party-and-turkiye-neocon-rhetoric-self-imposed-blinders/3559848

[6] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-diplomats-syria-abruptly-let-go-amid-pro-damascus-policy-push-sources-say-2025-09-18/.

[7] https://asbarez.com/text-of-declaration-signed-by-pashinyan-and-aliyev/

[8] https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/turkiye-iraq-development-road-project-to-link-gulf-europe-via-basra-port-3208182?s=1

* Opinions expressed in this article are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.