HAMILTON, Canada 

The chief economist of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned on Thursday that even if the conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz ended immediately, the impact on global commodity markets would take months to stabilize.

"If the conflict stops today, it will take two to three months to stabilize this cost," said FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero during a virtual briefing on the conflict in the Middle East and its implications.

Torero said the conflict "has triggered one of the most rapid and severe disruptions to global commodity flows in recent times," adding that "within days, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed to 90%, while the route normally carries 20 million barrels of oil per day."

"That's 35% of the crude oil, along with one-fifth of the world's LNG natural gas, and up to 30% of international fertilizer trade," he said, emphasizing the strategic channel's relevance for global food security.

Pointing to a stark timeline of consequences depending on how long the crisis lasts, he said: "If everything is resolved in the next two weeks or so, the markets will absorb, and that will minimize any potential risk of food insecurity in the world in the next planting season, or any potential risk of economic impacts."

"If this crisis continues for three to six months, then yes, it will have an impact, not only on the food security sector, but of course, energy will impact all other sectors and other inputs," he added.

Torero also highlighted the vulnerability of countries heavily dependent on remittances from Gulf workers, citing Nepal, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Egypt and Sri Lanka as nations where a significant share of GDP could be at risk.

Workers in the region "will lose their jobs and of course they won't be able to submit their remittances," he warned.

He further singled out Türkiye and Jordan as particularly at-risk nations due to their crop calendars and "import dependency," with Lebanon also facing compounding difficulties.

Urging for swift resolution, he stressed that "markets will absorb because we have enough food in the markets," if the conflict ends within the next week or two.

"But we have to be realistic; if this continues for a longer period of time, the situation will be significantly worrisome," he noted.

Responding to Anadolu's question on the impact of climate change-related disasters on top of the ongoing conflict in the region, Torero warned of a potentially catastrophic combination of factors if El Nino — a climate pattern causing unusually warm ocean temperatures and extreme weather worldwide — strikes while the conflict continues.

"If El Nino happens and is strong, then the combination of those factors, the climate effect, plus the increasing cost of inputs, will exacerbate significantly the situation," he said.