• Experts say all sides facing increasing pressure, as stockpiles being strained

ISTANBUL

One month into the war in the Middle East, the US, Israel and Iran are showing the strengths and limits of their military capabilities, as the war shifts from rapid military operation to a protracted confrontation.

The conflict, which began with a joint US-Israeli offensive against Iran in late February, has expanded into a region-wide confrontation, with Tehran launching retaliatory missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases and American-allied infrastructure across the Middle East.

Experts said all sides are facing increasing pressure, as their stockpiles are being strained and costly systems are being used at a pace that is hard to sustain.

While US and Israeli forces have scored tactical gains by hitting thousands of targets, they are also using costly, high-end interceptors to counter far cheaper drones and missiles, according to a commentary published on the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)'s website.

Analysts Macdonald Amoah, Morgan D Bazilian and Jahara Matisek, in their analysis 'Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance', noted that US and its allies have expended 11,294 munitions in the first 16 days at a cost of approximately $26 billion.

Iran's arsenal degraded

As the war enters its first month, analysts said Iran’s arsenal has been degraded, though the lack of official data makes it difficult to assess the scale.

Pre-war estimates placed Iran’s missile stockpile at around 2,500, though some analysts suggested it could be as high as 6,000.

Tehran’s arsenal includes missiles such as the Khorramshahr-4, Ghadr-110 and Emad, with ranges of up to 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles). Some of the missiles used against Israel reportedly carried cluster munition warheads, making them harder to intercept.

In the opening days of the war, Iran is estimated to have launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones.

Among the drones used by Iran are its Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones, which can travel up to 2,000 kilometers and are relatively cheap to produce. As of early 2026, reports suggested that Iran possesses a stockpile of up to 80,000 Shahed drones, with the ability to produce drones every day.

Data compiled by Ibrahim Jalal, a senior researcher and policy advisor, indicates that by March 20, Iran had conducted more than 5,693 strikes across Israel, the Gulf countries, Iraq, Jordan and Syria.

Israel has faced more than 870 strikes, with drones making up the majority and missiles a smaller share.

Analyst Jalal noted that Iran has not run out of missiles and drones, and has not unveiled all of its capabilities.

"It has not even used more than 30-40% of its stockpile. Its production capability annually exceeds 1500 missiles and 2000 drones," Jalal told Anadolu, adding that the country has been producing at scale for many years.

Matthew Powell, a lecturer in air power studies from the University of Portsmouth in England, told Anadolu that while Iran's stockpile of missiles and drones has "undoubtedly" been depleted, Tehran has never publicly stated its initial stockpiles, therefore making it difficult to gauge how many it currently possesses.

He also noted that Iran is using their ballistic missiles more sparingly than at the start of the war.

"This suggests one of two things: the stockpiles of ballistic missiles are being reduced at a faster rate than expected and so Tehran is rationing their use to prolong the conflict or Tehran are reducing the scale of their attacks to prepare the way for substantial ceasefire and possible wider-ranging peace talks."

Experts also highlighted recent reports of Iran launching a ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers against the island of Diego Garcia, which was later denied by Tehran.

"If Iran does possess them, it is unlikely that they will have them in significant numbers," said Powell.

On the other hand, Jalal said Iran has intermediate-range ballistic missiles exceeding 3,000 kilometers, noting capabilities may not always be visible.

He pointed to the evolution of Houthi attacks between 2016 and 2024, which progressed from short-range to medium-range, and eventually to missiles reaching up to 1,800 kilometers, adding that the gradual expansion caught many observers off guard.

During the first 16 days of the war, Iran’s daily missile and drone attacks fell 80% - 90% from their initial peak, and after day five and beyond, it's missile and drone attacks averaged 33 and 94 strikes per day, according to an analysis published by the defense and security think tank RUSI.

Israeli defenses under growing pressure

Experts note that Israel’s multi-layered air defense system has so far managed to absorb much of the Iranian strikes, though no system is fully effective.

"No air defense system is one hundred per cent perfect and a limited number of Iranian air strikes have found their targets. These successful strikes, however, from a strategic perspective, have had limited effect, although they have caused destruction and casualties within Israel," said Powell.

On the other hand, Israel’s military leadership and opposition figures have warned that Israel’s military is nearing collapse under the strain of a multi-front war, citing critical troop shortages and a lack of clear strategy.

Concerns are also growing about the sustainability of Israel’s defenses.

Israel’s most critical defensive systems appear to be under the greatest strain, with its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 missile defense interceptors projected to be depleted by March 27, said the RUSI commentary.

On the offensive side, Israel’s Blue Sparrow air-launched ballistic missiles are expected to last until April 5, while its David’s Sling Stunner interceptors, used for medium-range threats, are projected to be depleted by April 6.

Israel’s Rampage supersonic missiles are estimated to last till April 9.

Data from the first 16 days of the war shows a rapid depletion of key munition stockpiles among the US, Israel and allied forces.

Israel’s Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors saw the sharpest decline, with 122 used out of 150, meaning more than 81% are depleted. Allied THAAD systems also dropped significantly, with 60% of stocks used, while Israel’s David’s Sling interceptors were reduced 54%.

On the offensive side, Israel used 56% of its Blue Sparrow missiles and nearly 49% of its Rampage missiles.

"Israeli stockpiles of Arrow interceptor missiles, which are used to defend against incoming ballistic missiles, are precariously low. The Royal United Services Institute estimates that Israel may run out these vital weapons as early as the end of May," said Powell.

US stockpile stretched

During the first 16 days, the US carried out extensive long-range strike operations, launching around 535 BGM-109 Tomahawk land-attack cruise missiles, along with 912 AGM-158 JASSM and JASSM-ER stealth cruise missiles.

To support broader airstrike campaigns, US aircraft dropped 1,080 GBU-31, GBU-32 and GBU-38 JDAM guided bombs, according to an analysis on the RUSI website.

The US and its allies, meanwhile, are facing mounting pressure on their arsenals, according to the analysis.

Among allied systems, partner-operated THAAD is estimated to have 10 days of supply remaining, with projected depletion by April 3.

"Estimates from the RUSI suggests that the US have already fired over five hundred Tomahawk missiles in the four weeks of the war and that it would take five years at current production levels for these missiles to be replaced. They also suggest that the US is around a month away from running out of ATACMS ground attack missiles and THAAD interceptors," said Powell.

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, said that American air defenses and munitions are strained and are being rationed.

"We also know that the Iranians have battered a lot of America's bases throughout the region. Many of them have been mostly or partially evacuated, and people are now working in dispersed areas across these cities. The radar systems have also been battered," he said.

Bohl noted, however, that there has been no damage to American warships besides the USS Gerald R. Ford that had a fire internally, noting that the American naval presence is unharmed and still capable of conducting launches.