JERUSALEM / ISTANBUL

Most Israelis believe Hamas will remain in power in the Gaza Strip after the current war, a new poll showed on Thursday.

The poll, conducted by the Jewish People Policy Institute, found that 57% of Israelis think Hamas rule in Gaza will continue, even if it rebrands itself. Only 30% believe the group will be fully dismantled.

Among Israeli Arabs, 41% believe Hamas will remain as it is, while 27% think it will persist under a new name. Just 15% said they expect Hamas to be ousted entirely, Israel’s Channel 7 reported.

Among Jewish Israelis, 53% said Hamas will stay in power in some form, compared to 34% who believe it will be fully removed.

The survey also found that 47% of Israelis expect Israel will maintain control over parts of Gaza for several months, while 33% think Israel will control the entire enclave for at least a few years.

When asked whether Gaza residents are likely to leave the territory voluntarily, 59% of respondents said most will remain, while only 14% expected large-scale departures.

However, over one-quarter of right-wing voters predicted that most Gazans would leave within two to three years. Additionally, 42% of right-wing voters estimated that more than a quarter of the population would eventually depart. By contrast, 96% of left-wing voters believed most residents would stay, with only minor departures.

On the controversial issue of Israeli resettlement in Gaza, 63% of respondents said they do not believe Israel will re-establish Jewish settlements there. Still, 28% said they expect Israel to resume settlement activity, either near the border or deeper inside the territory.

Commenting on the results, Professor Yedidia Stern, head of the Jewish People Policy Institute, said the findings reflect a shift in public perception.

“The results reveal an Israeli public that still supports military operations but is increasingly skeptical about achieving its stated objectives,” Stern noted.

“There are growing doubts over the possibility of toppling Hamas and an assumption that Israel will remain entangled in Gaza for the foreseeable future. These results highlight the need to reassess not just military strategy but also the broader political and psychological consequences unfolding on the ground.”

Channel 7 did not provide the number who participated in the poll.

Rejecting international calls for a ceasefire, the Israeli army has pursued a brutal offensive against Gaza since October 2023, killing nearly 56,300 Palestinians, most of them women and children.

Last November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.