Iran protests could end up threatening regime: Experts

By Zuhal Demirci

ANKARA

Ongoing demonstrations in Iran -- initially staged to protest the country’s difficult economic circumstances -- risk becoming full-fledged anti-government rallies, experts warn.

Hakki Uygur, an analyst with the Ankara-based Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM), said the current protests have seen more activity in provincial areas than those that erupted in Tehran following the country’s hotly-contested 2009 presidential election.

“These protests are more dangerous than those seen in 2009. Meanwhile, the current U.S. administration has shown more overt support for the demonstrators than the Obama White House did eight years ago,” Uygur told Anadolu Agency.

Along with the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Israel have also issued statements voicing support for the protesters.

“The current situation is more difficult for Iran than it was in 2009,” he said. “But it’s too early to be sure.”



Anti-regime

Uygur noted that demonstrators had begun to target the Iranian regime itself, with protesters criticizing President Hassan Rouhani and Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

“The conflict in Syria kicked off similarly, with a crackdown on demonstrators making legitimate demands,” Uygur said.

“If police stations are attacked and soldiers are killed, the whole thing could go to another level,” he added.

According to the analyst, the entire regime could end up collapsing in the absence of genuine concessions to the demonstrators.



‘Broad movement’

Ali Semin, an expert from the Istanbul-based Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies (BILGESAM), agreed with Uygur’s assertions, saying: “These demonstrations --initially prompted by poverty and unemployment -- could eventually turn into a broad movement against the regime itself.”

According to Semin, this is the first time for Iranian demonstrators to openly march against the Iranian state -- and its supreme leader -- since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“We’re now seeing demonstrators -- for the first time -- tearing down posters of Ali Khamenei and attacking Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel,” he told Anadolu Agency.

Semin called on Iranian leaders to focus less on foreign military interventions -- in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, for example -- and more on the domestic problems now plaguing the Iranian people.

“Genuine reform is now the only way out,” he said.

Thousands of Iranians took to the streets last Thursday in Tehran and Mashhad to protest rising costs of living and increasingly difficult economic circumstances.

After five days of continuous demonstrations across the country, more than 20 people -- including at least one policeman -- have been killed, while hundreds more have reportedly been arrested.

On Sunday, President Rouhani warned citizens against joining the burgeoning protests.

"We must avoid putting the country in a situation that our enemies can take advantage of," he said following an emergency cabinet meeting.