ISTANBUL

Five days into the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, the focus is no longer only on the intensity of the strikes but on how long each side can keep fighting.

Beneath the waves of missiles and airstrikes lies a more fundamental calculation – whether stockpiles, air defenses and political will can support a prolonged campaign.

US President Donald Trump has suggested the operation could last “four to five weeks” or longer, but analysts say the timeline will ultimately be determined by military inventories, economic pressures and the willingness of each side to absorb losses.

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the RANE Network, said historical precedent suggests the conflict may not last indefinitely.

“Among past US air campaigns, the longest was the one against Serbia in 1999, which was for about 90 days,” he said.

“I tend to think this one is going to be much shorter than 90 days because of the lack of political will in America. Trump’s four to five weeks timeline may be reasonable, but it could be even shorter than that, particularly if we see an energy that looks like it’s going to cause a shock.”

US munitions and military capacity

The US has mobilized significant firepower for the operation. According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), more than 50,000 troops, 200 fighter jets and two aircraft carriers have been deployed for the joint campaign.

In a video statement on Tuesday, CENTCOM head Adm. Brad Cooper said US and Israeli forces have struck nearly 2,000 targets across Iran with more than 2,000 munitions.

Reports from US media outlets based on leaks from the Pentagon have suggested that American stocks of some critical missiles could start running low after a week or two at most.

Trump, however, has dismissed concerns about American stockpiles, asserting that US supplies of mid- and high-grade munitions were stronger than ever.

“As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons. Wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies,” he said in a post on his Truth Social platform.

The US has relied on an extensive arsenal that includes B-2 stealth bombers, B-1 bombers, F-15, F-16, F-18, F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, A-10 attack aircraft, EA-18G electronic warfare planes, MQ-9 Reaper drones, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, and guided-missile destroyers, along with Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems.

Some analysts warn that interceptor inventories could become a constraint if the conflict intensifies.

Joze Pelayo of the Atlantic Council think tank described the issue as an “urgent concern” for the US and its allies.

“US interceptor stocks could genuinely hit critical lows within days, given the intensity and frequency of Iranian attacks, which appears to be precisely Tehran’s strategy,” said Pelayo, associate director for strategic initiatives and policy at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

Bohl acknowledged reports of potential shortages, but believes that Washington retains the capacity to sustain intermittent strikes over a longer period if necessary.

“There are strategic stockpiles inside Israel as well that the Americans can dip into. There’s also other stockpiles that they can rush to the region from Europe and from the US to replenish that, particularly if they slow down their pace of airstrikes.”

Iran’s missile and drone stocks

Iran, by contrast, is relying primarily on ballistic missiles and drones.

CENTCOM says Tehran has launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones in retaliatory strikes since the conflict began.

Among them are the Shahed-136 “kamikaze” drones, which have a range of up to 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers) and are relatively inexpensive to produce.

“The drones are the most effective against the Gulf Arab states because they don’t have anti-drone defenses. These are cheap to produce and easy to launch,” Bohl said.

Before last year’s 12-day war with Israel, Iran’s stockpile of medium- and short-range ballistic missiles was estimated at between 2,500 and 3,000. Analysts believe roughly half were expended during that conflict, but reports suggest Tehran has worked to replenish its supplies.

Iran’s missile arsenal includes the Khorramshahr-4, Ghadr-110, Haj Qassem, Emad, Qasem Basir and Zolfagar, with ranges from a few hundred kilometers to as far as 2,000 kilometers (over 1,220 miles).

According to Bohl, Iran’s shorter-range missile inventories remain relatively strong.

He said Tehran likely still has several weeks’ worth of short-range ballistic missiles available and could extend that supply by reducing the pace of launches.

Pelayo noted that Iran is unlikely to back down quickly, particularly because many of the weapons it deploys – such as drones and short-range missiles – are relatively cheap compared to the systems used by the US and Israel.

Israel’s defense systems

Israel has also been conducting extensive air operations while relying heavily on its layered air defense systems to intercept incoming missiles and drones.

The Israeli Air Force said on Tuesday that it has dropped over 4,000 munitions on Iranian targets since last Saturday, reaching the same number used in last June’s 12-day war.

Israel’s defensive network includes the Iron Dome system designed to intercept short-range rockets, David’s Sling for medium-range threats, and the long-range Arrow missile defense system. The country also operates US-made THAAD ballistic missile interceptors.

While Israel does not share information on its supplies, Bohl believes it likely has sufficient interceptor stocks and munitions to sustain operations for now.

The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday that Israel’s military is “planning for at least one or two more weeks of operations in Iran.”

However, Bohl pointed out that Hezbollah’s involvement and Israel’s shift toward Lebanon could prove to be a factor.

“If Hezbollah and Iran are good at coordination, the Israeli air defense system will be tested. It will be a real question as to whether it will be able to defend itself from such coordinated attacks.”