- Climate shocks drive food insecurity, water stress, health risks and displacement for tens of millions

- Gains in adaptation and clean energy are outpaced by funding gaps, debt and accelerating climate impacts

ISTANBUL

Africa has contributed little to the climate crisis, yet it has borne some of its harshest consequences.

That imbalance was underscored in November, when UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned G20 leaders in Johannesburg that Africa would pay a “deadly price” for climate change despite having done “very little” to cause it.

The warning reflects realities already unfolding across the continent.

Over the past quarter-century, rising temperatures, increasingly erratic rainfall and more frequent extreme weather events have reshaped ecosystems and livelihoods from the Sahel to the Horn of Africa.

These shifts have deepened food insecurity, strained water supplies, heightened health risks and forced millions from their homes, testing the capacity of governments and communities to adapt in a warming world.

How Africa’s climate has changed

Africa has warmed steadily since 2000, and temperature anomalies indicate an accelerating trend, according to the African Center of Meteorological Applications for Development.

North Africa has warmed fastest, at about 0.4 C (0.72 F) per decade between 1991 and 2023 – roughly twice the pace recorded from 1961 to 1990 – while Southern Africa has warmed more slowly, at around 0.2 C (0.36 F) per decade, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

In 2024, Africa’s average temperature stood 0.86 C (1.55 F) above the 1991-2020 baseline, with North Africa reaching 1.28 C (2.3 F) above normal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has confirmed human activity as the primary driver of this warming.

Rainfall patterns have also shifted. Heavy rainfall events have intensified, triggering widespread flooding across East, West and Central Africa, while prolonged droughts have become more frequent elsewhere.

Climate impacts vary sharply by region.

North Africa faces mounting water and food stress; East Africa and the Horn continue to endure recurring droughts; shifting rainfall patterns in West Africa have exacerbated instability in the Sahel; Central Africa has seen storms disrupt ecosystems and wildlife; and Southern Africa has suffered economic losses linked to drier conditions.

The environmental toll of a warming continent

Africa’s forests and woodlands, long considered a vital carbon sink, have become a net source of carbon emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation, according to a 2025 study published in Scientific Reports.

The Democratic Republic of Congo alone lost nearly 52 million acres (21 million hectares) of tree cover between 2001 and 2024 – about 11% of its forest area – releasing an estimated 13 gigatons of carbon dioxide, driven by agriculture, logging, infrastructure development and wildfires, according to Global Forest Watch.

Yet environmental trends are not uniform. Parts of the Sahel have experienced regreening since the severe droughts of the 1970s and 1980s, aided by increased rainfall and farmer-managed natural regeneration, according to the IPCC.

Large-scale restoration efforts and community-led soil and tree cover projects in Burkina Faso and Niger have helped reverse degradation on millions of acres, according to Food and Agriculture Organization reports.

In contrast, the Horn of Africa has faced intensified water scarcity since the turn of the century due to recurrent multi-year droughts. Between 2021 and 2023, a particularly severe drought left over 24 million people facing water shortages and worsened food insecurity, according to UNICEF.

Sea levels along Africa’s coastlines have risen faster than the global average, driving erosion, flooding and saltwater intrusion, particularly along the Indian Ocean and West African shores, according to WMO and IPCC assessments.

When the climate shifts, communities pay the price

The human toll of climate change has already been severe.

Nearly 55 million people in West and Central Africa struggled to feed themselves during the 2024 lean season – four times more than five years earlier – driven by conflict, economic instability and climate-related crop failures, according to the World Food Program.

Climate change has also reduced agricultural productivity growth by about 34% since 1961 – the steepest decline of any region – with staple crops such as maize and wheat recording sustained yield losses across sub-Saharan Africa since 2000.

While Africa’s population grew from 800 million to 1.3 billion between 2000 and 2020, and 500 million gained access to basic drinking water, hundreds of millions remain without safe supplies, UNICEF and WHO reports show.

Water stress has affected an estimated 250 million Africans since 2000. One in three people in the World Health Organization’s African Region now lives under water stress, increasing exposure to disease and limiting access to clean drinking water.

High water stress is expected to displace up to 700 million people by 2030, according to the WMO. In the Lake Victoria Basin alone, up to 38.5 million climate migrants are projected by 2050, according to estimates from the International Organization for Migration and the World Bank.

Health risks linked to climate change are rising. Heat, malnutrition, malaria and diarrheal diseases are projected to cause an additional 250,000 deaths annually worldwide between 2030 and 2050, with more than half expected to occur in Africa, according to the WHO.

Heat-related deaths among people over 65 rose by 83% between the early 2000s and 2017-2021.

Policy, finance and the fight against climate change

Since the early 2000s, African governments have increasingly prioritized adaptation, focusing on early warning systems, resilient housing, sanitation, education and climate-smart agriculture, according to the IMF.

Urban adaptation remains a challenge, as rapidly growing cities struggle with aging infrastructure and limited resources. Still, improved planning and ecosystem-based approaches are gaining ground, according to a 2024 study in the Journal of Transport Geography.

Renewable energy deployment has accelerated, with climate finance supporting the expansion of solar and wind power across the continent. Clean energy investment has helped improve electricity access while reducing emissions, according to a 2025 review in Energy Strategy Reviews.

Africa has also increased its influence in global climate negotiations, shaping adaptation, finance and climate policies.

Yet progress has been uneven. Debt burdens, policy gaps and persistent funding shortfalls continue to constrain action, according to the IPCC and Clean Air Task Force.

Preparing for an uncertain climate future

Africa faces escalating risks as global temperatures rise toward 2 C to 3 C (3.6 F to 5.4 F), with populations more exposed and vulnerable than global averages, the IPCC warns.

Rapidly growing cities are expected to become focal points for climate hazards, compounded by migration pressures and resource scarcity.

Despite the challenges, opportunities remain. Africa holds vast solar and wind potential, and harnessing even a fraction could significantly reduce energy poverty while strengthening resilience.

Adaptation needs across the continent are estimated at about $70 billion annually, yet Africa received only $14.8 billion in climate finance in 2023. Loss and damage costs are projected to reach between $290 billion and $440 billion by 2030, according to Power Shift Africa.

As climate impacts intensify, experts warn that closing the finance gap and strengthening institutions will be decisive in determining whether Africa can adapt to a century of accelerating change.