• Beijing expects Macron to ‘leave with warm words, vague commitments to dialogue, and perhaps some trade announcements,’ says analyst Einar Tangen

ISTANBUL

French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday began a three-day trip to China amid expectations in Beijing for “change of attitude and sincerity” from Europe, experts said.

Accompanied by business leaders and government officials, this is Macron’s fourth state visit to the world’s second-largest economy.

In Beijing, Macron will hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and China’s top lawmaker Zhao Leji before traveling on Friday to the sprawling city of Chengdu in the southwestern part of the country.

As the trade volume between China and the EU’s second-largest economy rose to around $80 billion, the two sides have in recent years also engaged in panda diplomacy.

Xi will host Macron for one-on-one talks in Chengdu, with bilateral ties, trade and Trump tariffs, and the war in Ukraine and Gaza likely on the agenda.

The trade friction between China and the EU, whose bilateral trade stood at around $785.8 billion last year, will likely dominate the discussions between the two.

Macron trip signals EU wants to ‘maintain dialogue’

Political observers told Anadolu that while Macron’s trip is “important symbolically,” it shows Europe “wants to maintain dialogue and avoid being fully absorbed into Washington’s containment strategy.”

“The significance is limited,” said Einar Tangen, senior fellow at Beijing-based Taihe Institute.

On the EU’s demands that China cut supplies to Russia amid the war with Ukraine, Einar said it was “unrealistic.”

Beijing “is not happy about the Ukraine war… China positions itself as neutral, insisting it is not fueling the war but also refusing to bow to Western pressure,” he said.

“From Beijing’s point of view, Europe is asking for concessions it cannot give or enforce. While China will continues to emphasize dialogue and peace proposals, it will not alter its core ties with Moscow. The fact being the more Europe sides with the US against China, the stronger the bonds between Russia and China get,” he explained.

Macron’s trip to Beijing follows his three-nation visit to Southeast Asia in May this year, where he pushed his “third way” to help regional nations avoid being drawn into the growing rivalry between the US and China.

On EU-US ties, Einar said the bloc’s “autonomy looks shallow.”

“China sees this as more theater than substance — Europe wants to appear independent, but its economic and security reliance on the US makes the (Macron) visit more of a gesture than a strategic pivot,” he explained.

“Europe may talk of strategic independence, but its leaders still defer to Washington’s line,” he said, adding: “China will not abandon Russia under external pressure.”

‘Warm words, vague commitments’

The analyst said Beijing expects Macron to “leave with warm words, vague commitments to dialogue, and perhaps some trade announcements.”

“China will welcome the engagement but privately judge it as half‑hearted — Europe wants to appear balanced, yet remains tethered to US policy on Ukraine and supply chains. But, China will continue to gauge the situation, looking for a change of attitude and sincerity from Europe,” said Einar.