JERUSALEM / ISTANBUL

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has reached a deadlock after two ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew from the ruling coalition, leaving it on the verge of collapse.

The Agudat Yisrael faction, which holds three seats in the 120-seat Knesset, quit the government in protest of its failure to pass a bill exempting the ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredi, from military service.

The move came a day after the 4-seat Degel HaTorah faction withdrew from the government.

Both parties make up the United Torah Judaism (UTJ) bloc, which holds seven of the coalition’s 68 seats in the Knesset.

According to Israeli media, the Shas Party, another ultra-Orthodox party with 11 seats, also plans to quit the coalition on Thursday.

Netanyahu’s governing coalition needs at least 61 in the Knesset to remain in power.

Ultra-Orthodox parties have long pushed for legislation to exempt Haredi men from Israel’s compulsory military service, a stance that faces growing opposition from several factions within the government and the broader public.

The deadlock leaves Netanyahu with five scenarios in the upcoming period.

1 - The Israeli premier is likely to wait for the Knesset’s summer recess, which will begin on July 27 and continue until October 2025. During this period, the government would be able to perform as a minority government until the Knesset’s return but without the authority to pass bills.

Before the start of the Knesset’s summer recess, Netanyahu can seek to solve the crisis over the Haredi conscription with the religious parties.

2 - Netanyahu can seek to pass the bill to exempt Haredi Jews from mandatory military service to regain the support of the ultra-Orthodox parties for his coalition.

This move, however, would draw sharp criticism from opposition parties amid a severe shortage of troops due to Israel’s 21 months of genocidal war in the Gaza Strip.

3 - If the crisis escalates, the other far-right parties would withdraw from the coalition, following the suit of the Haredi parties. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the 6-seat Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) Party, has repeatedly threatened to undermine the government in case a Gaza ceasefire deal is reached.

The 8-seat Religious Zionism Party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, is another far-right party that would undermine the government if it withdraws. This far-right party has been calling for the annexation of the occupied West Bank.

4 - Netanyahu can seek the support of non-government parties such as Benny Gantz’s 8-seat Blue and White Party and Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party, which holds 23 seats in the Knesset. Netanyahu will likely justify such an alliance to win support for reaching a ceasefire agreement in Gaza or normalizing ties with Arab states.

However, these parties have previously stated their refusal to form an alliance with Netanyahu due to his involvement in corruption trials.

5 - Netanyahu would admit failure and set a date for early elections. However, the prime minister would not prefer such an option unless he secures a political victory, which he needs to maintain his immunity in his current corruption trials.

Netanyahu faces charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust that could lead to imprisonment if proven.

Rejecting international calls for a ceasefire, the Israeli army has pursued a brutal offensive against Gaza since October 2023, killing nearly 58,500 Palestinians, most of them women and children.

Last November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.