GENEVA

The World Food Program (WFP) warned Tuesday that escalating conflict in the Middle East could drive global hunger to record levels, with millions more at risk.

New WFP analysis projects that "almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity" if the conflict continues through mid-year and oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. This would add to the 318 million people already facing acute hunger worldwide.

"This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record, and it's a terrible prospect," WFP Deputy Executive Director Carl Skau told reporters in Geneva.

He warned that disruptions to energy and fertilizer markets are already driving food price increases, particularly in import-dependent regions.

The agency warned the situation could mirror the global food crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine in 2022, when hunger surged to 349 million people.

While the Ukraine war disrupted a key global breadbasket and the current crisis is centered in a major energy hub, the analysis said the consequences could be similar due to the close link between energy and food systems.

"The spike in global food and fuel costs could leave millions of families priced out of stable foods," Skau said.

He also drew attention to the fact that fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have slowed significantly, noting that around 25% of the world’s fertilizer supply passes through the route.

Reduced fertilizer availability, Skau warned, could raise input costs for farmers, lower crop yields, and in worst cases lead to crop failures. Even in less severe scenarios, higher production costs are expected to push food prices higher next year.

According to the WFP, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia face the highest risk due to reliance on imports.

Projections indicated an increase of 2% in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17% for East and Southern Africa, as well as an increase of 24% is forecast for Asia.

Sudan, which imports around 80% of its wheat, and drought-hit Somalia are among those at heightened risk, with reports of sharp increases in essential commodity prices.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe,” Skau said, warning that vulnerable families "will be hit the hardest."

He warned that the crisis comes at a time of severe funding shortages, limiting WFP’s ability to respond. Without increased support, he said, "it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge."