• If government falls, Bayrou will be forced to submit his resignation to Macron, who would then face task of appointing 5th prime minister in less than 2 years

ISTANBUL

France is entering a make-or-break week as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a high-stakes confidence vote later Monday, which he is expected to lose.

Bayrou, 74, a centrist veteran and President Emmanuel Macron’s fourth prime minister since 2022, called for a vote of confidence in his government on Sept. 8 after announcing his controversial 2026 budget plan on Aug. 25.

The proposal sought roughly €44 billion ($51.5 billion) in savings through cuts to pensions, health care and the removal of two public holidays.

His strategy has backfired, however.

Two opposition parties -- the far-right National Rally (RN) and the left-wing Socialists -- have vowed to vote him out, claiming the measures are unfair and socially damaging.

"This country risks embarking on what is, in effect, a suicidal path," said Nicolas Tenzer, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Tenzer said the prime minister likely sought to take the initiative due to the risk of the budget vote being blocked later in the fall.

"It was certainly a risky gamble," he told Anadolu.

Crisis rooted in debt

France’s finances have been under acute strain for a while.

Public debt has risen to 113.9% of GDP, the third highest in Europe after Greece and Italy, while last year’s deficit was nearly double the European Union’s 3% threshold.

For more than 50 years, France has failed to balance its budget; even now, it spends more on interest payments than on its defense or education budgets.

"He (Bayrou) wanted to make the French people aware of the dramatic situation of public finances, for which all governments, both left and right, have been partly responsible for the past 40 years," Tenzer explained.

While some critics branded Bayrou’s plan an austerity package, Tenzer rejected the term.

"Personally, I would not refer to it as an austerity plan. Some economists have demonstrated that budget cuts of up to $100 billion would be required to reduce the debt burden. We are far from that," he noted.

Still, he argued that tough choices cannot be avoided.

"The downward trajectory is necessary, especially since defense spending must be increased for imperative security reasons, particularly in view of the Russian threat," he said.

Yet as French analyst Alexander Seale observed, the government’s real weakness lies less in strategy than in tactics.

"Relying on Article 49.3 bypasses, confidence gambits and heavy-handed technocratic messaging have alienated both voters and deputies across the spectrum," Seale told Anadolu.

"Without building a cross-block consensus -- even half a coalition -- his plans remain specters on paper," he added.

Article 49.3 of the French Constitution allows the government to force the passage of a law without a vote unless the parliament passes a motion of no confidence.

Since becoming prime minister in December 2024, Bayrou has repeatedly used Article 49.3 to pass budget legislation. This has led to intense criticism and multiple no-confidence motions from the opposition, further destabilizing the government.

Macron, Bayrou lose public faith

As the government is likely to fall, nearly two-thirds of French people have less and less confidence in Macron and Bayrou to resolve the political crisis.

According to a Verian poll for Le Figaro Magazine, only 15% of French people say they trust the president, a sharp six-point drop in just one month that represents his lowest approval level since first taking office in 2017.

Even among his 2022 first-round voters, support has plunged to 45%, down 14 points over the same period, according to an Elabe survey for Les Echos.

Bayrou fares even worse. His trust rating now stands at just 14%, the lowest ever recorded for a prime minister in the Verian Barometer.

Tenzer said the backlash reflects broader disillusionment with the political establishment.

"There is certainly unpopularity linked to the prime minister himself, but also to the fact that he is perceived as weak," he noted.

Seale noted that Bayrou’s unpopularity reflects the broader decline of Macronism rather than a rejection of his specific policies.

"In France, prime ministers rarely outshine the president: they are seen as his political shield," he said.

"As Macron’s approval stagnates around 27%, Bayrou pays the price of being tied to a weakening brand," he added.

Possible scenarios

If the government falls, Bayrou will be forced to submit his resignation to Macron.

The president, who has ruled out immediate snap elections, will then face the task of appointing a fifth prime minister in under two years.

Names are already circulating in Paris including Finance Minister Eric Lombard, former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve and Court of Auditors chief Pierre Moscovici.

On the other hand, Macron may try to strike a deal with the Socialists to stabilize governance, but deep political mistrust runs through the assembly.

"The only solution would be an alliance between the moderate right-wing parties, the center and the socialist and environmentalist left in a German-style grand coalition. But unfortunately, this is not the tradition in this country," said Tenzer.

For now, Bayrou could remain in a caretaker role while Macron deliberates.

The RN and the hard left, meanwhile, are pressing for fresh elections -- and for Macron himself to step aside.

"I would like to dismiss outright the possibility of Emmanuel Macron resigning. He has no reason to do so, and he has made that clear," said Tenzer.

Tenzer also warned against another dissolution of the National Assembly, which would send voters back to the polls.

"A new dissolution would also risk leading to the same results and would make the country just as ungovernable, maybe even more. I think those who are proposing it are being irresponsible," he said.

According to analysts, the most likely outcome is the appointment of yet another prime minister, which would make Bayrou the fourth premier to fall in less than two years.

"It could be a left-wing prime minister, but that would require the Socialist Party to take responsibility and make a clear break with the far left. But let’s be straightforward: a more left-wing government will not be able to avoid drastic spending cuts, even if it can change certain policies," Tenzer said.

Seale echoed his sentiments, saying: "Appointing a new prime minister might buy time or slightly adjust the balance, but it won’t resolve the deadlock unless Macron can either forge a coalition or risk new elections."

"Macron is in a bind: stay the course with a weak substitute for Bayrou, or gamble on new elections that could accelerate (far-right leader Marine) Le Pen’s rise."

He cautioned that Macron faces a persistent deadlock regardless of the path he chooses, as his centrist alliance holds only 245 seats, 44 shy of a majority, with no party prepared to join him in a durable coalition.

"That condemns each prime minister, whether Bayrou or his successor, to rely on procedural tools like Article 49.3 or confidence votes," Seale said.

Tense September ahead

The political uncertainty is already spilling into the streets.

On Sept. 10, the grassroots “Let’s Block Everything” movement, inspired by the Yellow Vests, plans nationwide protests.

On Sept. 12, Fitch is due to review France’s credit rating, with analysts warning a downgrade could be imminent if the crisis deepens.

A week later, trade unions are preparing strikes and demonstrations.

Seale warned that unrest could compound the political crisis.

"If unions join forces with grassroots activists, France could face another paralyzing protest wave, just as markets are watching closely," he said.​​​​​​​