- Analyst tells Anadolu that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has 'been consistent' in his international narrative, focusing on international law, multilateral diplomacy

- Sanchez's stance reflects a mix of foreign policy positioning, domestic political calculations, electoral strategy, Juan Luis Manfredi Sanchez says

GENEVA

Spain has refused to allow the US to use key military bases on its territory for potential strikes against Iran, triggering one of the most serious disputes between the NATO allies in years.

The disagreement centers on the US naval base in Rota and the Moron air base in southern Spain, facilities that have long served as strategic hubs for American military operations in the Mediterranean.

The dispute unfolded as the United States and Israel carried out large-scale coordinated strikes on Iran that began on Feb. 28, hitting military infrastructure, missile systems and sites connected to Tehran’s nuclear and security networks. Iran has responded with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US military installations and regional infrastructure, raising concerns about a broader regional escalation.

Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s decision has drawn sharp criticism from Washington. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Spain “has been terrible” and said he had instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all dealings” with the country, threatening to halt trade between the two nations.

Tensions escalated the following day when the White House said Spain had privately agreed to cooperate with US operations after the threat. Madrid quickly rejected the claim, with Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares insisting Spain’s position "has not changed by a single comma."

Later, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles also pushed back against NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's claim in an interview with Newsmax that allies “are basically, on a massive scale, supportive of what the (US) president is doing,” in Iran.

Spain does not "share his opinion," Robles said in a radio interview Thursday morning.

Instead, Spanish officials say their anti-war stance reflects concerns about international law and the risk of a wider regional conflict.

Growing policy divide

The current dispute reflects a broader shift in Spain’s foreign policy under Sanchez, who has increasingly sought to position Madrid as an independent voice within Western alliances.

Spain has taken several positions in recent years that have put it at odds with Washington or parts of NATO. While Washington has remained Israel’s closest military and diplomatic ally during the war in Gaza, Spain has emerged as one of Tel Aviv’s most outspoken critics.

Madrid sharply criticized Israel’s "genocide" in Gaza, and in 2024, joined Ireland and Norway in recognizing Palestinian statehood. The Spanish government also imposed an arms embargo on Israel, banning the export and import of defense equipment and other military-related technology.

La Moncloa has also resisted US pressure to increase NATO defense spending to 5% of GDP, arguing that the target is excessive and could undermine Spain’s economic priorities.

Earlier this year, Spain criticized US actions against Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, warning that such unilateral operations risk setting a “dangerous precedent” under international law.

Spanish officials voiced similar concerns when strikes against Iran began, saying that while they do not support the Iranian government, Madrid rejected the “unilateral military action” launched by the US and Israel against Iran, warning that the world cannot afford another “devastating war” in the Middle East.

The latest dispute has pushed relations between Madrid and Washington to their most strained point yet.

"We will not be complicit in something that is bad for the world. Not even out of fear of reprisals,” said Sanchez on Wednesday.

Reasons behind Spain’s stance

According to Juan Luis Manfredi Sanchez, professor and chair of international studies at the University of Castilla-La Mancha, the Spanish prime minister "has been consistent in his international narrative" in multiple fronts.

“He grounds his positions on Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela and now Iran in international law and multilateral diplomacy," he told Anadolu.

Manfredi said several factors explain why Sanchez has taken a stance that differs from many Western allies.

“The first is that Sanchez is one of the few progressive leaders in Europe. He needs his own position within a more conservative environment, such as France, Germany or even the European Commission," he said. "This independent voice allows him to create a different international agenda.”

For Manfredi, the second reason is more domestic.

"His markedly anti-Trump stance leaves little space for the opposition," he said, noting that the main opposition, the People’s Party (PP), has "difficulty building a different position."

Only the far-right VOX differentiates itself, he argued, and this benefits Sanchez.

"It allows him to build a narrative of polarization and division: either with Trump -- sovereigntism and anti-globalization -- or with international law."

On Friday, a survey published by the Spanish daily El Pais revealed that Sanchez’s stance on the Iran war is paying off. It found that 42% of respondents said his actions around the war were good or very good, compared to just 19% who said the same thing about Alberto Feijoo, the leader of the PP.

The expert said electoral considerations also play a role, arguing that figures like Trump embody "the culture-war" politics that Sanchez can position himself against during reelection campaigns.

Spain’s next general election is set to be held no later than August of next year.

Echoes of Iraq war

On Wednesday, Sanchez said Spain’s stance on Iran could be summed up with the words “No to war.”

Manfredi said the slogan recalls the Spanish political scene during the Iraq war in 2003.

Spain saw massive 'No to war' protests in 2003 against the US-led invasion of Iraq after then-Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar joined US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair at the Azores summit to support the war -- a moment that reshaped Spanish public opinion on military interventions abroad.

Analysts say Sanchez’s messaging appears designed to resonate with that political memory while reinforcing Spain’s image as a defender of international law.

Sanchez on Wednesday warned that the "Azores Islands mindset" previously brought Europe a "more insecure world."

Energy risks could lead to a tough 2026 for Spain

With the White House raising the possibility of cutting off trade with Madrid, the stance could also have economic consequences. However, Spain is part of the European Union’s single market and eurozone, meaning any trade measures would likely have implications beyond Spain alone.

“There is a real danger of economic impact,” Manfredi said. “There is a real risk in energy prices. I am worried because we are very dependent on liquefied gas imported from the United States and there is no substitute service from Canada, Qatar, or Norway."

He warned Spain could face pressure from both global energy markets and potential trade tensions with Washington.

The pressure comes from two sides, "higher prices due to the war in Iran and higher gas prices coming from the United States," he said.

On Wednesday, Sanchez said the Spanish government was studying and willing to offer economic support for Spanish households and businesses if they became necessary.

Yet Manfredi explained that while the cost for households could be mitigated by subsidies, the "real cost" would be energy for industry.

“With prices already higher than the European average, Spain could suffer significantly in 2026,” he said.

Manfredi added that broader instability in the Middle East could also affect Spain’s export sector, saying: "In general, a war with Iran harms export activity because of growing uncertainty."

Limits of ‘moral rearmament’

Spain has sought to position itself as a potential leader of an alternative European approach within NATO, Manfredi said.

However, he argued that the government’s concept of a European “moral rearmament” still lacks a clear strategic framework.

“The ‘moral rearmament’ that Sanchez defended at the Munich Security Conference is more rhetorical than strategic,” he said. “Spain needs to improve its competitive position with smart investments in defense, security, migration, energy, trade and foreign policy.”

Without coordinated tools, he said "it will be difficult to truly lead the conversation.”