LONDON

Poland is set to spend nearly 5% of its GDP on obesity-related health problems by 2060, almost double the 2019 level, according to a report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).

The state-owned think tank projects Warsaw’s spending will rise to 4.86% of GDP, placing Poland second in the EU behind Bulgaria, where costs could hit 7.08%.

Based on data from the Polish National Health Fund (NFZ), 64.5% of adult Poles are overweight, including 26.8% classified as obese.

Globally, obesity costs are forecast to increase from 2.19% to 3.29% of world GDP by 2060. In 2019, the United States accounted for nearly 38% of global expenses.

Low- and middle-income countries are expected to face a sharp rise in costs -- up to 25 times higher -- due to “dynamic socioeconomic changes... including rapid urbanization, a shift toward office work and a decline in physical activity,” the report states, as quoted by Poland’s PAP news agency.

The increase is also linked to changing diets, with more foods high in fats, sugars, and salt.

PIE notes that 12 EU countries have already introduced taxes on unhealthy foods, and the EU plans to harmonize such measures across the bloc. Researchers estimate OECD countries will spend around 8% of their health budgets on weight-related complications between 2020 and 2050.