• Political analyst Nicolas Bouteca warns Belgium's capital region could remain in political paralysis until next elections in 2029

• Financial pressure mounts as banks reassess credit lines amid prolonged paralysis

BRUSSELS 

As Belgium’s capital marks 600 days without a fully empowered regional government, political paralysis in the Brussels-Capital Region is raising concerns that the deadlock could persist until the next regional elections in 2029, amid collapsed coalition talks, deep budgetary disputes and mounting financial pressure.

Belgium operates under a complex federal system in which authority is divided among the federal state, regions and language-based communities. The Brussels-Capital Region is one of the country’s three regions, alongside Flanders and Wallonia, and enjoys broad autonomy over economic and social policy within its territory.

A fully functioning Brussels regional government is responsible for key areas including public finances, employment policy, mobility, housing, urban planning, environmental protection, public works and regional economic development. It also plays a central role in addressing poverty and managing public investment in the capital.

Defense, foreign affairs, social security, major elements of fiscal policy and internal security remain the responsibility of the federal government, which continues to operate despite the prolonged regional vacuum in Brussels.

While the federal level can ensure Belgium’s international obligations are met – including the functioning of EU and NATO institutions based in the capital – it cannot intervene in regional competences, particularly in budgetary and social policy, leaving Brussels with limited capacity to address its growing financial and social challenges.

Securing majorities blocks coalition talks

The Brussels-Capital Region has been governed in caretaker mode since regional elections in June 2024, with repeated attempts to form a coalition failing amid divisions between Dutch-speaking and French-speaking parties.

Under Belgium’s institutional framework, a Brussels government must secure a majority in both language groups in the regional parliament – a requirement that has proven increasingly difficult in the capital’s fragmented political landscape.

According to Nicolas Bouteca, a professor of political science at Ghent University, the core obstacle lies in incompatible coalition preferences between the two language groups.

"There was a majority on the Dutch side ... which included the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA)," Bouteca told Anadolu. "But on the Francophone side, there's one party, Socialist Party (PS), they don't want to work together with the N-VA, because they say that's an anti-Brussels party.”

At the same time, the Flemish liberal party Anders, formerly Open VLD, insists that the N-VA be part of any coalition, effectively blocking compromise.

Formateur resigns amid budget standoff

The deadlock deepened further after Yvan Verougstraete, the politician tasked with leading the latest attempt to form a regional government, stepped down on Jan. 20, just one month after being appointed as formateur.

His resignation followed the refusal of Flemish Budget Minister Dirk De Smedt to attend a key budget meeting, despite earlier commitments.

“After 19 months of missed meetings, taboos and vetoes, the very existence of the region is in jeopardy,” Verougstraete said, as quoted by Belgian daily La Libre.

Beyond coalition arithmetic, budgetary policy has emerged as the central point of contention.

Brussels faces a large deficit and rising debt, forcing parties to consider severe spending cuts.

“The main obstacle is the budget,” Bouteca said. “The question is whether the deficit must be fully eliminated immediately or whether there is room for a limited, ongoing deficit.”

He noted that the Dutch-speaking liberal party Anders is particularly focused on strict budget discipline, advocating far deeper spending cuts than other parties, a stance that has become a major stumbling block in negotiations.

"The other parties don't want to go as far as they want with that budgetary orthodoxy," he added.

Possibilities for breaking deadlock

Bouteca said that while new initiatives could theoretically begin within weeks, there is currently no clear alternative to break the stalemate.

"The only way to get out of this deadlock situation is if the Francophone Socialist Party says, 'Okay, we can govern together with the N-VA,' or if the Flemish liberal party says, 'Okay, we don't need N-VA in this coalition. Then it could be solved quite quickly," he said.

However, he added that neither scenario appears likely in the current political climate.

"The idea now is that we won't get a real government until 2029,” he said. “A lot of people think that we're blocked in this situation until the next elections.”

Without a fully functioning government, the region lacks the authority to implement major reforms or take difficult budgetary decisions.

"It will be difficult to find majorities in parliament to make severe budgetary decisions now," he added.

Social services strained after 600 days

Civil society organizations warn that the prolonged political vacuum is already having tangible consequences on the ground.

Meanwhile, protests continue against austerity measures advocated at the federal level.

“The absence of a Brussels government is having a real impact on our activities,” Federico Dessi, director of Doctors of the World Belgium, told local media.

“One of our major projects in Brussels has seen its budget cut by almost half. Another partner project has been forced to close its operations,” he added. “We no longer know how we will be able to continue providing care to the most vulnerable populations in Brussels.”

Citizen movements have planned major demonstrations against political deadlock for Friday, which marks 600 days of no functioning government.

Financial pressure intensifies

Concerns are also mounting over Brussels’ financial credibility.

In November 2024, state-owned Belfius bank announced it would withdraw its €500 million ($597 million) cash credit line and no longer act as the region’s house banker, citing declining creditworthiness and the continued absence of a regional government.

Fears are also growing that ING Belgium could withdraw a similar facility, raising the risk of a liquidity crisis.

"The main concern at this moment is the fact that when the financial markets are starting to target Brussels and the Brussels government, then that could lead to even more budgetary problems in Brussels and even maybe in Belgium at large," Bouteca said.

"There is already a very difficult financial situation in Brussels, and it could get even worse when the financial markets get a grip on that idea,” he added.