• Merz, 69, promises fundamental policy shifts, including stricter migration controls and market-friendly reforms to revive Europe’s largest economy
• CDU leader’s supporters see him as a competent politician who can offer practical solutions, but opponents question his ties to multinational corporations such as BlackRock

BERLIN 

Despite slipping polling numbers, Friedrich Merz, a conservative lawmaker with over four decades of political experience, remains the frontrunner in the race to become Germany's next chancellor.

The 69-year-old took the helm of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in 2022, two years after long-serving conservative leader and former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s departure from active politics.

Unlike Merkel’s calm and consensus-building style, which helped her win broad support and bridge societal divides, Merz’s confrontational approach and polarizing statements have made him one of Germany’s least popular chancellor candidates.

With Sunday’s elections inching closer, the latest survey by public broadcaster ZDF shows Merz’s CDU/CSU bloc has fallen to 28% – their worst polling performance this year.

In contrast to Merkel’s centrist policies, Merz has steered the party toward the right, and his personal popularity remains well below that of the former chancellor, who earned the nickname “mutti” – German for mom – of the nation.  

Merz’s unpopularity problem

The CDU has traditionally attracted conservative voters, especially from the middle class, including self-employed individuals, farmers, and small business owners who support social market-oriented economic policies.

According to a recent opinion survey by Ipsos, Merz draws strong support from male voters but faces opposition from female voters, who view his political style as arrogant and dismissive toward women.

While 21% of men consider him the most suitable candidate for chancellor, only 15% of female voters support him. His backing among young voters is even lower at 13%.

Merz also faces low approval ratings among voters in East German federal states, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) maintains its strongest support base.

According to the latest ZDF poll, the AfD has consolidated its position as the country’s second-strongest political force, climbing one percentage point to 21%.

Some analysts say that Merz’s persistent unpopularity has prevented the main opposition CDU/CSU from gaining broader support ahead of the snap elections.

While the Christian Democrats still maintain a lead, this falls significantly short of their previous electoral showings – 41.5% in 2013, 41.4% in 1994, and 48.8% in 1983.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) remains at 16% in the latest poll – a figure that would mark the party's worst electoral performance since 1949. Their coalition partners, the Greens, were at 14%.

Standing at 8%, the socialist Die Linke party looks set to clear the 5% threshold to enter parliament, while both the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed BSW are at 4.5%, facing possible exclusion.

Analysts expect Merz to seek a coalition with either the SPD or the Greens to form a government. However, if all smaller parties clear the 5% threshold, the CDU/CSU would need to form a three-party coalition because mainstream parties would hold fewer seats – a scenario that would complicate coalition negotiations.  

Reset for Germany’s economic policies

In his campaign, Merz strongly criticized Scholz’s coalition government, claiming their policies have triggered severe economic stagnation that has forced many companies to shut down factories and cut thousands of jobs.

To revive the struggling economy, the conservative leader has proposed business-friendly policies: lowering corporate tax rates, securing affordable energy, cutting red tape, increasing investments, and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany's re-industrialization through digitalization.

He criticized the Greens’ insistence on costly and inefficient energy projects and argued that Germany should maintain the nuclear energy option, with a focus on researching fourth- and fifth-generation nuclear technology.

Merz is widely regarded by his supporters as a promising chancellor candidate who understands economic challenges and can offer practical solutions, as he worked many years as a corporate lawyer and board member for leading German and multinational companies.

However, critics point out that despite his extensive political career since university and his business experience, he has never held executive office – either at the state level or as a federal cabinet minister.

Left-wing politicians particularly question his ties to multinational corporations and the financial sector – especially his role as chairman of American multinational investment giant BlackRock’s German division from 2016 to 2020 – arguing that he would prioritize interests of lobby groups over public welfare.  

Major overhaul of immigration policy

Merz has made mass migration a central focus of his election campaign, calling for a complete overhaul of Germany’s immigration policies.

He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while accelerating deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.

Merz has declared that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as those migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will face deportation to their home countries.

The Christian Democrats have also pledged to suspend family reunification for those with subsidiary protection status and terminate all voluntary admission programs.

Merz’s strict immigration stance has sparked divided responses.

In particular, migrant organizations have criticized his promise to reverse the Scholz government’s reforms on German citizenship and dual nationality.

Critics have also cautioned that his strategy of echoing far-right AfD narratives to attract their voters would not succeed, as voters typically prefer “to support the original party rather than its imitators.”  

Backfiring far-right gamble

The conservative politician caused an uproar several weeks ago by introducing anti-immigration legislation to parliament and seeking to pass it with support from the AfD.

Scholz sharply criticized Merz for violating a longstanding principle in German politics – maintaining a “firewall” against far-right parties by refusing to cooperate with extremists.

The initiative backfired when Merz’s controversial bill was rejected after a heated parliamentary debate. About a dozen lawmakers from his own CDU/CSU group broke ranks as well, and refused to support the legislation.

His move sparked widespread protests across Germany, with tens of thousands of demonstrators taking to the streets, accusing Merz of normalizing far-right politics and breaking the post-war consensus against cooperating with extremist parties.

Amid mounting criticism, Merz reversed course, repeatedly emphasizing this week that the Christian Democrats would not cooperate or engage with the AfD after the election.

He highlighted the fundamental differences between the parties, noting that unlike the Christian Democrats, the AfD was taking a stance against Germany’s membership in both the EU and NATO.  

Conservative leader backs US and Israel ties

On foreign policy, Merz has signaled a pragmatic approach while emphasizing the importance of transatlantic ties and close cooperation with the US.

“This bond across the Atlantic has held up so far, regardless of which administration is in the White House,” he said recently, during a major foreign policy address in Berlin.

While acknowledging growing tensions between the US and EU under the Trump administration, he argued that “this is also an opportunity that could strengthen Europe.”

He urged European states to adopt a unified position and pursue common European interests in discussions with Trump.

The CDU leader criticized US Vice President JD Vance’s controversial Munich Security Conference speech – where Vance accused Europe of abandoning democratic values – while keeping a measured tone to avoid straining relations before potential discussions with Trump.

As opposition leader, Merz has frequently criticized Scholz’s restrained Ukraine policy over recent months. He pushed for sending advanced weaponry to Ukraine, particularly long-range Taurus missiles capable of striking Russian territory.

Merz contended that bolstering Ukraine’s military capabilities would strengthen its position in potential peace talks with Moscow.

The conservative leader has also been a strong supporter of Israel, repeatedly stating that Israel’s security is part of Germany’s “reason of state.”

He has pledged increased support if the Christian Democrats win the elections.

“A government led by me will strengthen our relations with Israel. I will immediately end the de facto export embargo of the current government,” he declared in his recent Berlin speech.

Merz did not make any comment about the Israeli government’s war crimes or killing of thousands of Palestinian civilians in Gaza, but criticized the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.