• Despite rising support, party shows no sign of moderating its positions, with its new youth organization described by experts as even more radical

• Young voters are increasingly drawn to the AfD, while mainstream parties struggle to engage them, rights advocates say

BERLIN

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to 26% in recent opinion polls, overtaking Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative alliance and emerging as the country’s strongest political force.

The momentum came as Germany prepares for key state elections in 2026 in five regions, sparking concern at home and across Europe over the growing normalization of extremist ideology.

The anti-immigration party has already doubled its support across all five states. Recent surveys put the AfD at as much as 39% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern – figures that could enable it to take part in government or block coalition formation in those states.

Despite the surge, experts say the AfD is not moderating toward the political center. Instead, its rhetoric and organizational structures are becoming increasingly radical, according to Professor Matthias Quent, a prominent expert on far-right movements.

He attributed much of the party’s rise to the internal struggles of Merz’s conservative-left coalition government, which took office in May 2025 but has since failed to maintain voter confidence.

“The German coalition government is caught between conflicts and crises on a global level while facing internal disputes among the parties. It is under pressure from demands by the population, by promises made that now cannot be fulfilled, and by a massive challenge from organized right-wing extremism that works with misinformation, stigmatization, and polarization in the media – with the explicit goal of splitting the democratic center and pulling more people toward the far-right,” Quent told Anadolu.

According to him, the AfD is exploiting this situation to reinforce the impression that mainstream democratic parties cannot solve the problems facing the country.

Coalition tensions fuel discontent

Tensions within the governing coalition have intensified in recent months. Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance and its Social Democratic partner have clashed repeatedly over migration, military service reform, pension policy and budget priorities – disputes that have raised doubts among voters about the government’s ability to govern effectively.

A Forsa poll conducted Dec. 16-19 showed the coalition would fall short of a parliamentary majority if federal elections were held the following weekend. Support for the CDU/CSU has fallen from 28.5% in February’s election to 24%, while the SPD slipped from 16.4% to 13%.

The far-right AfD surged to 26% support, a dramatic rise from the 20.8% it achieved in February 2025, a result that emboldened the party ahead of the 2026 state elections.

Just months before those elections, the party launched “Generation Deutschland,” a new youth organization aimed at mobilizing young voters increasingly drawn to far-right ideology.

AfD’s radical youth wing raises alarm

Quent, who has tracked the AfD’s evolution for years, warned that the party’s attempts to present itself as moderate contrast sharply with its internal developments. He said the new youth organization confirms a shift toward more radical positions.

“The new youth organization of the AfD is even more radical than it was before. It integrates far-right actors from the non-parliamentary spectrum – social movements like the Identitarian Movement and other extremist networks, which now have stronger bindings to the AfD,” Quent explained.

“This seems to lead to a professionalization in the relationship between the AfD as a political party in the political system and the social movements, the grassroots and street mobilizations of the far-right,” he said.

According to Quent, the normalization of far-right ideas, ideologies and organizations in Germany in recent years led to much higher attractiveness of these organizations.

“They are more present, available on social media but also in cities and local areas. You can have a career in a far-right organization now. Normalization means that social norms are changing – changing away from democracy and human dignity toward racism, antisemitism, and nationalism. That leads to changes not just in the political system but in the whole society,” he said.

‘Mainstream parties abandoned young voters’

The AfD's increased support was particularly striking among young voters in recent years.

In the 2024 European Parliament elections, the party became the second strongest force among voters aged 16 to 24, marking a sharp shift from previous support for the Green Party. In the same year’s regional elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, the AfD emerged as the most popular party among young voters.

Romy Arnold, project manager at MOBIT, a Thuringia-based organization combating right-wing extremism, said the AfD’s youth outreach has flourished amid a lack of engagement by mainstream parties.

“I understand why young people are angry. And I also see that the far-right is exploiting this anger very effectively, while also creating its own identification offer. Democratic parties unfortunately leave young people out in the cold,” she told Anadolu.

“I come from Thuringia. In Thuringia there was exactly one party in the last state election that addressed young people with a youth-specific campaign and election posters – the AfD. They speak to young people, they meet young people where they are,” Arnold said.

Thuringia remains one of the AfD’s strongest regional bases. In the 2024 state election, the party won a record 32.8% of the vote, beating the CDU by more than nine percentage points.

Social media normalize far-right views

Arnold said today’s far-right movements differ fundamentally from those of the 1990s, largely due to the power of social media.

“Social media plays a major role, especially when it comes to organizing these loosely organized youth groups, which are often WhatsApp groups. And the radicalization is happening there at a speed that is actually new compared to what existed in the 1990s, and of course, it also offers completely different networking opportunities,” she said.

“And yes, TikTok, Instagram, all the social networks that exist, are a major driver because they get messages to young people faster than used to be, when you had to awkwardly stand in front of the school to recruit young people or hand them CDs. There are great opportunities there, and not only the AfD, but the far-right as a whole is taking advantage of these opportunities,” she added.

Can Germany’s democratic center hold?

The AfD’s policy positions and the creation of its youth wing have triggered mass protests across Germany in recent months. Tens of thousands have demonstrated, urging democratic parties to stand united against extremism and warning against any cooperation with the AfD at federal or state level.

Both Quent and Arnold stressed that Germany still has a strong civil society committed to defending democracy. They said countering right-wing extremism requires strengthening democratic forces and showing young people that viable alternatives exist.

However, they warned that many NGOs working in this field face financial uncertainty as authorities consider cuts to social funding.

Quent said preventing further gains by the AfD requires center-right and conservative parties to draw clear lines and actively confront the normalization of extremist views.

“It should be clear that the democratic parties have the same stand on this question, on the same page when it's about democracy and far-right extremism,” he said, adding that mainstream parties must deliver credible solutions and rebuild trust in democratic institutions.

Quent also warned against any cooperation with the far-right.

“What we see in international comparison is that the cooperation with far-right parties doesn't lead to weaken them. It's more often that the far-right uses this situation, this collaborations and cooperation to continue their normalization,” he said.

“Democratic parties will not benefit from the cooperation with the far-right, but the far-right will benefit from this,” he said.