• Opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s Christian Democrats lead with 29%, the far-right AfD has emerged as Germany’s second strongest political force at 21%, and Chancellor Scholz’s SPD lags behind at 16%

• No party is projected to win an absolute majority and complex negotiations are expected ahead, with a coalition between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats appearing most likely

BERLIN 

German voters will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, with the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) widely predicted to return to power after over three years in opposition.

Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU is currently leading the polls with 29%, putting them nearly 14 percentage points ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD). However, Merz is unlikely to secure an absolute majority in parliament.

According to the latest Forsa Institute poll, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has climbed to 21%, strengthening its position as the country’s second-strongest political force. The anti-immigrant party, however, has no path to power since all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with them.

Analysts see a coalition government between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats as the most likely outcome, but with a large number of undecided voters and Germany’s complex electoral system, the final distribution of parliamentary seats remains uncertain.

According to a survey released on Thursday, nearly 27% of voters were still undecided about whether to cast their vote or which party to support.

Who is voting?

More than 59 million German citizens are eligible to vote, including 2.3 million first-time voters, according to official data. The electorate leans heavily on the older side, with 42% of voters aged 60 or above, compared to just 13% under 30.

Over 7 million eligible voters have immigrant backgrounds, including more than 1 million German citizens of Turkish origin.

Over the years, voter turnout has been higher among older voters, but consistently lower among young people and those with migrant backgrounds.

Overall voter turnout in the 2021 parliamentary elections reached 76.6%, but declined to 64.8% in the 2024 European Parliament elections.

How does the German election system work?

Germany’s chancellor is elected indirectly, with voters choosing new parliament members, who then pick the new chancellor with a vote among themselves.

If the winning party secures a majority in parliament, or manages to build a coalition government with an absolute majority, its candidate becomes the country’s next chancellor.

Germany uses a mixed voting system where each citizen casts two ballots. With their first vote, they choose a specific candidate to represent their local district. Their second vote supports a political party, which plays a bigger role since it decides how many seats each party gets in parliament.

Political parties need to win either 5% of total votes or three direct district seats to enter parliament. This threshold prevents the fragmentation of parliament by excluding very small parties.

Who are the main parties?

In total, this election has drawn 4,506 candidates competing for 630 parliamentary seats.

Female representation has slightly decreased, with women making up 1,422 candidates (32%), down from 33% – 2,024 of 6,211 – in 2021.

Of the 29 political parties running for parliamentary seats, only six are polling comfortably above the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag.

The CDU/CSU alliance, SPD, AfD, Greens, and socialist Die Linke (The Left) are on course to clear the mark.

The liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the newly formed, left-populist BSW are hovering around 5%, leaving their parliamentary futures uncertain.

If both the FDP and BSW do make it through, it could complicate Merz’s coalition-building plans.

The CDU/CSU would then need to form a three-party coalition, as mainstream parties like the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats would control fewer seats.

Who could be the next chancellor?

A recent survey by public broadcaster ZDF has shown that conservative chancellor candidate Merz holds stronger approval ratings than incumbent Chancellor Scholz.

When asked about their preferred candidate, 32% of respondents chose Merz, while Scholz was at 18%. The Greens’ candidate Robert Habeck also outperformed Scholz, with 21% preferring him as the next chancellor.

Meanwhile, AfD’s co-chair and chancellor candidate Alice Weidel was preferred by 14% of respondents, while 15% of those surveyed were undecided or declined to choose.

What are the Christian Democrats offering?

Merz, 69, has made the country’s struggling economy and mass migration the central focus of his election campaign.

To revive Europe’s largest economy, he has proposed business-friendly policies: lowering corporate tax rates, securing affordable energy, and establishing a digital ministry to lead Germany’s reindustrialization through digitalization.

He has promised to establish permanent border controls with neighboring countries to significantly reduce irregular migration, while also accelerating deportation procedures for rejected asylum seekers.

Merz has declared that Syrians and Afghans without legal status, as well as migrants who have committed serious crimes in Germany, will face deportation to their home countries.

He draws strong support from male voters but faces opposition from female voters, who view his political style as arrogant and dismissive toward women. His backing among young voters is even lower at 13%.

Merz also faces low approval ratings among voters in East German federal states, where the AfD maintains its strongest support base.

What are the SPD’s policies?

During his campaign, Scholz slammed Merz’s populist rhetoric aimed at AfD voters, while emphasizing the SPD’s focus on practical solutions for economic and migration challenges.

In an effort to win back voters, the 66-year-old veteran Social Democrat developed an election platform focused on growth and social justice.

His key campaign promises include raising the minimum wage to €15 (almost $16) per hour from 2026 onwards, providing tax relief for millions of workers, reducing VAT on essential foods, and making energy more affordable for all.

Scholz has repeatedly warned the electorate of the Christian Democrats’ rightward shift, and their potential cooperation with the AfD after the elections.

On foreign policy, Scholz has maintained a balanced position on Ukraine – continuing Germany’s support while emphasizing the need to avoid direct military involvement in the conflict. He remains firm in his opposition to delivering long-range Taurus missiles that could reach targets deeper in Russian territory.

The latest opinion polls signal major disappointment for the Social Democrats, who had hoped to repeat Scholz’s remarkable comeback in 2021, when the SPD won with 25.7% of the vote despite polling at just 15% a few months before election day.

What are the Greens offering?

The Green Party’s chancellor candidate Robert Habeck, 55, has positioned himself as a pragmatic environmentalist focused on accelerating Germany’s transition to renewable energy while maintaining economic stability.

The Greens’ election platform centered on ambitious climate protection goals, including achieving 100% climate-neutral energy by 2035 and phasing out coal power by 2030.

Habeck has pledged to invest heavily in green technologies over the next decade to modernize industry and infrastructure while creating sustainable jobs.

On social issues, the Greens advocate for raising the minimum wage further to compensate for recent years, close loopholes in rent control, make building cheaper, and ensure housing is affordable again. The party advocates for a humane approach to migration while ensuring orderly immigration procedures.

While Habeck’s personal approval ratings are significantly higher than Scholz's, his party’s overall support stands at 14%, a slight decline from 14.8% in the 2021 elections.

What are the AfD’s policies?

The AfD’s chancellor candidate Weidel has received fresh momentum through endorsements from the Trump administration and supportive tweets from tech billionaire Elon Musk.

According to the latest polls, the AfD is projected to win 21% of the vote – a historic high that more than doubles their 2021 tally.

During her campaign, 46-year-old Weidel has focused on migration and promoted the party’s controversial “remigration” proposal – a vague term used to describe mass deportations of immigrants.

The party promises to reinstate border controls, cut social benefits for refugees, and deport rejected asylum seekers to their home countries.

Domestically, the AfD promises to reverse Germany’s transition to renewable energy, expand coal-fired power plants, reinstate nuclear power, and end what they call the “climate hysteria” of the Greens.

On foreign policy, the party calls for a radical transformation of the EU from a supranational institution into a looser “federation of European nations.” It also suggests Germany’s withdrawal from the European monetary union and the introduction of a national currency.

Regarding NATO, the AfD says it is committed to membership “until an independent and effective European military alliance is established.” The party opposes military support for Ukraine and demands an end to sanctions against Moscow.