• Right-wing rivals Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge 'Tuto' Quiroga lead the race, pledging to dismantle the state-led model blamed for economic turmoil
• A bitter feud between Luis Arce and Evo Morales has fractured the left, while inflation, fuel shortages, and mass protests deepen the crisis

BOGOTA, Colombia

Bolivia is set to hold a presidential election on Sunday, with almost 8 million citizens expected to vote as the country faces its worst economic crisis in four decades.

After two years of political conflict and mass protests against President Luis Arce’s leftist government, polls suggest Bolivians are poised for a sharp shift to the right in what could end two decades of dominance by the Movement for Socialism (MAS), led by former President Evo Morales in the South American nation.

Two right-wing candidates are leading the polls. Frontrunner Samuel Doria Medina, 66, is a center-right businessman and former planning minister from the National Unity Front. Once the main shareholder of Bolivia’s largest cement company, he now owns hotels and fast food franchises. Medina ran unsuccessfully for president three times, in 2005, 2009, and 2014.

In second place is Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, 65, of the Freedom and Democracy party. Also a three-time presidential candidate, Quiroga served as head of state from 2001 to 2002, finishing the term of former military dictator Hugo Banzer after his resignation due to lung cancer.

Both opposition leaders vow to dismantle MAS’s state-led economic model, which many Bolivians blame for the country’s economic woes.

“We have long awaited these elections and hope they will be free and fair,” Fabiana Mezzadri, a young professional, told Anadolu. “The party that has governed for two decades claims to act in the public’s best interest, but its actions suggest otherwise.”

According to the polls, the only left-wing candidate with a chance of reaching a runoff, Andronico Rodriguez, is polling in fifth place with 5.5%.

President Arce, a former finance minister under Morales, announced in May that he would not seek reelection. Instead, he backed his 36-year-old interior minister, Eduardo del Castillo, who is polling below 3%.

Polls point to a close race that may not produce a first-round winner. A runoff — which would be unprecedented in Bolivia — is set for Oct. 19 if no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, or at least 40% with a 10-point margin over the runner-up.

In addition to the president and vice president, Bolivians will also elect 36 senators and 130 deputies.

Decline of the left

The elections are taking place amid deep polarization and a bitter feud between Arce and his former mentor Morales, which has fractured the left and eroded MAS’s popularity.

Morales, who served from 2006 to 2019, was barred by the Constitutional Court from seeking a third term. In response, he launched a campaign for a null vote.

“The null vote is a form of rejection of an illegitimate election with a potential for nullity. The null vote will become an electoral referendum,” Morales said in Cochabamba, flanked by indigenous farmers. Earlier, some of his supporters had even called for the burning of ballot boxes.

Morales has been living in Cochabamba for several months, avoiding an arrest warrant on charges of “aggravated rape with human trafficking” over allegations of an improper relationship with a minor during his presidency.

He denies the allegations and accuses Arce's government of trying to block his candidacy.

If convicted, Morales faces a prison sentence of up to 15 years. Despite his publicly known whereabouts, police have not arrested him as he is protected by supporters, who claim to have formed multiple "security rings" around him.

Despite the scandals, Morales remains popular among many Bolivians for lifting 2 million people out of poverty as the country’s first Indigenous president.

Economic crisis

Bolivia’s economy has been in crisis for more than two years, with shortages of US dollars, soaring prices, and recurring fuel scarcities tied to import dependence.

Long reliant on natural gas exports for foreign currency, Bolivia has seen production decline since 2017.

"We can't get gas, lines stretch for hours,” business owner Patricia Rojas told Anadolu. “The basic food basket is shrinking, dollars are disappearing, and prices are soaring. Business owners can't import, inflation is out of control, and everyone is paying the price."

The crisis has worsened under Arce. By July 2025, inflation hit 24.8%, the highest since at least 2008.

Mounting economic pain has fueled protests and heightened tensions less than three months before Bolivians choose their next president.