• France still has influence, but much of it stems from old networks that no longer guarantee future relevance, experts added
  
• Analysts say Macron’s latest Africa tour was short, cautious and avoided political fault lines

ISTANBUL

French President Emmanuel Macron completed a five-day tour of Mauritius, South Africa, Gabon and Angola insisting that France is “turning the page” in its relations with Africa, a pledge he has repeated for years.

But the reality on the ground is much more complicated.

French troops have been expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, France’s once-dominant position in the Sahel has collapsed, and political upheaval in Madagascar has shaken yet another long-standing partner.

Against this backdrop, analysts say Macron’s refrain now carries far less weight. The question, they argue, is no longer whether France is turning the page – but whether Africa already has.

“Macron’s Africa policy is reacting to geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts … not being proactive,” Ovigwe Eguegu, a political analyst at consultancy Development Reimagined, told Anadolu. “Talking about turning the page in 2025 is nothing new.”

Macron’s push for a new relationship with Africa began long before this trip.

In a high-profile 2017 speech in Ouagadougou, he declared the end of “Francafrique,” insisting “there is no longer a French policy for Africa.”

Yet colonial-era structures, economic asymmetries and military dependencies largely remained intact – until they quickly began to unravel.

Mali cut ties in 2022 after years of frustration with Operation Barkhane, accusing French forces of failing to stop attacks and undermining national sovereignty.

Burkina Faso followed months later, as public anger against France exploded in street protests and a new junta declared that “the era of dependency is over.”

Niger, long considered France’s last reliable Sahel partner, expelled French forces in 2023 after a sudden military takeover, cancelling military cooperation agreements and ordering French troops to abandon their key base.

Most recently, Madagascar added to the upheaval when former President Andry Rajoelina, who had maintained warm relations with Paris, was ousted.

“The coup in Madagascar … is further evidence of a decline of French influence,” Eguegu said.

And the problem for Paris, he argued, is structural: “France is uniquely vulnerable under these dynamics considering the historic character of its ties with Africa.”

‘Partial failure’

Francois Gaulme, an associate research fellow at French Institute of International Relations, said Macron began the trip insisting that his original vision for Africa from 2017 remained valid despite the recent turmoil.

“He doesn’t acknowledge the partial failure of his vision for Africa and of the relationship between France and Africa,” he told Anadolu.

During his visit to Mauritius on Nov. 20, Macron stressed that France and Mauritius share “a common vision of the major challenges of our time” adding that the partnership is rooted in “respect for international rules” and an “effective multilateralism.”

In Gabon, two days later, he again emphasized “reinvented partnerships” and “win-win relationships.”

However, behind Macron’s speeches, Gaulme sees a blind spot – the belief that setbacks in the Sahel or Indian Ocean are temporary hurdles rather than signals of a fundamental shift.

“Many people in France are doubting very much that he is in control,” he added.

Gaulme also pointed to the speed of Macron’s tour, recalling an African official who told him that Western leaders who rush in and out send a message of detachment.

“These are very short trips … It’s not long enough,” he said. “You have to take your time in Africa.”

Macron’s tour avoids fault lines

Rather than confronting the collapse of France’s influence in the Sahel, Macron chose safer ground.

Gaulme said Macron, a former investment banker, has long gravitated toward Anglophone or non-Francophone partners such as South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya – a pattern that has drawn ire at home.

“He has developed policies favoring Anglophone Africa,” he said. “He is very much criticized on this aspect.”

Still, Paris wanted to show it had not abandoned Francophone partners.

Macron’s visit to Gabon was intended to signal that “he is not only interested in Anglophone countries,” Gaulme noted.

Paul Melly, a consulting fellow with Chatham House’s Africa Program, said the timing of Macron’s trip – wedged between the G20 in South Africa and the EU-Africa summit in Luanda – allowed him to “make a fairly low-profile early step in rebuilding France’s credibility.”

In Mauritius, Macron emphasized trade and cultural ties, while expressing sympathy for “the aspirations of young Malagasy,” as neighboring Madagascar’s ousted president reportedly fled on a French military aircraft, Melly said.

In Gabon, the French president stood beside Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who toppled the France-allied Bongo dynasty in 2023 – a signal, Melly said, that Paris now supports peaceful transitions rather than legacy loyalties.

France still has tools, but the landscape has changed

Despite the backlash, analysts agree France retains significant influence: major oil and gas interests, deep corporate networks, longstanding diplomatic clout, and Europe’s largest African diaspora.

Melly noted that African governments continue to value France as a development partner, especially at a time when “the US has radically cut back on its support for African development and seems only interested in business and security issues.”

France and the EU, he said, remain engaged on development, climate cooperation and rainforest protection – priorities still appreciated by African leaders, even if public opinion lags behind.

Economically, France also retains major leverage. French companies, from energy giants to pharmaceutical firms and transport manufacturers, remain deeply embedded across the continent.

“You still have many French companies on the continent which are respected by the countries in which they work,” Gaulme added.

And despite high-profile base closures in the Sahel, Gaulme noted that France still deploys “several hundred” troops across Africa.

But the broader geopolitical environment is unforgiving. France is no longer competing only with Washington, but with China, Russia, Türkiye, India and the Gulf states.

As Melly put it, African states today “do not think they have to choose just one or two partners and exclude others. They want to connect widely.”

That leaves France no longer the central node it once believed itself to be – just one partner among many, he added.