Finland faces 'bleak' demographic outlook, as population forecasts warn of sharp decline

ISTANBUL

Finland is bracing for a steep demographic downturn, with new forecasts warning that most municipalities will see their populations shrink rapidly in the coming decades.

The consulting firm MDI released its long-term forecast on Tuesday, extending projections to 2050 for the first time, the Finnish news broadcaster YLE reported.

The findings show that the vast majority of municipalities will experience declining populations, driven by record-low birth and rising mortality rates.

“Previously, higher mortality was always a temporary exception, such as during the civil war or years of famine. But in 2016, we moved into a state where Finland's population is decreasing every year without immigration,” said Rasmus Aro, MDI’s lead expert.

Only one in 10 municipalities currently records more births than deaths, and even in those, the margin is small.

Larger cities and some areas in western Finland, often called the country’s “Bible Belt,” are among the few exceptions.

The trend is expected to have a major impact on schools. By 2032, there will be 96,000 fewer children in classrooms, equivalent to 100,000 empty desks.

Approximately 100 municipalities are expected to lose one-third of their schoolchildren, resulting in widespread school closures.

Meanwhile, Finland's elderly population is expected to increase. By 2040, the number of people over the age of 84 will increase by 142,000, and by 2050, by 174,000.

Aro stressed that the aging challenge will last well into the 2050s.

For years, immigration has helped to offset Finland's declining birth rate, with arrivals from other countries, including a large number of Ukrainians in recent years, filling demographic gaps.

But the forecast suggests immigration alone may no longer be enough to prevent decline, especially if Ukrainian arrivals taper off.

“If Finland wants to maintain a growing working-age population and economy, the only alternative appears to be immigration,” Aro said.

“Population concentrations have been quite rigid since the 1960s. I find it rather unlikely there will be any significant changes, at least in the medium term,” he said.

According to MDI, Finland’s population will peak below six million and begin to fall in the 2040s, cementing the country’s status as one of Europe’s fastest-aging societies.