• Tactical withdrawals, mergers, and refusals to unite reshape contests in major cities like Paris, Marseille, Lyon
• Analysts say municipal vote may offer early indication of how the French left, center, and right will position themselves ahead of the 2027 presidential race

ISTANBUL

As France heads toward the second round of municipal elections Sunday, mainstream parties find themselves squeezed between surging far-left and far-right forces, with no single political bloc dominating nationwide.

The first round of voting took place Sunday across nearly 35,000 municipalities. In the French system, the list that receives 50% is the outright winner. If no list reaches that threshold, voters return to the polls.

Around 96% of communes elected their mayors outright, largely in smaller towns where competition was limited.

However, the remaining 4.4% of municipalities – representing nearly 38% of the population, or about 26 million voters – will vote again on Sunday, according to a report by Le Monde.

The first round was marked by high abstention – the highest level in municipal elections outside the pandemic-disrupted 2020 vote since 2014. Low turnout has been linked to limited electoral competition, though observers say participation could increase in Sunday’s runoff with clearer contests.

The vote is widely seen as a test of France’s national political balance ahead of the 2027 presidential race.

In major urban centers, the electoral landscape is particularly fragmented, with both the far-left and far-right expanding their influence and complicating traditional alliances.

Extremes gain ground

The far-right National Rally (RN), formerly led by Marine Le Pen, posted its strongest results in the south of France, particularly in areas where it has steadily expanded its local base over the past decade.

The party performed notably well in Marseille, France’s second-largest city, securing 35% of the vote, just behind a left-wing coalition at 37%, while also reinforcing its presence across the Provence-Alpes-Cote d’Azur region.

In the Var department, the party led in several towns, including Toulon, and made significant gains in municipalities such as Draguignan and Sollies-Pont.

Before this round of voting, RN and its allies controlled around a dozen councils and just one city with a population of more than 100,000 – Perpignan – which the party retained with 50.6% of the vote.

At the same time, France Unbowed (LFI), the radical-left party, made notable gains in Paris, Lyon and Marseille, as each candidate surpassed 10% of the vote.

In cities such as Limoges and Toulouse, LFI even outperformed Socialist candidates.

These gains translated into victories in some areas, most notably in Saint-Denis near Paris, where LFI candidate Bally Bagayoko secured an outright win by surpassing the 50% threshold and unseating the Socialist incumbent.

Still, the center-right Republicans (LR) and the Socialist Party (PS), long pillars of France’s political system, remain leading forces in major municipalities like Paris.

Alliances key ahead of second round

These fragmented results and low turnout have forced candidates to make strategic decisions ahead of the runoff.

On the left, a pattern of pragmatic cooperation has emerged in several cities, with the Socialist Party and France Unbowed agreeing to merge lists in places such as Toulouse, Nantes, Limoges and Clermont-Ferrand.

However, in Marseille, incumbent mayor Benoit Payan ruled out an alliance with LFI candidate Sebastien Delogu despite the strong showing of the far-right, hoping instead to attract left-wing voters without formally aligning with the party.

In Lyon, Green mayor Gregory Doucet has reached an agreement with LFI to consolidate the left vote against a strong center-right challenger. In Strasbourg, however, divisions between left-wing parties persist, while in Lille, the Greens have opted to align with the Socialists rather than LFI.

In Paris, Socialist candidate Emmanuel Gregoire finished ahead in the first round and rejected overtures from LFI candidate Sophia Chikirou.

On the center-right, strategic endorsements and alliances are also reshaping the electoral landscape.

In Paris, conservative candidate Rachida Dati has secured backing from centrist figure Pierre-Yves Bournazel, strengthening her position ahead of the runoff and narrowing the gap with the left.

Mainstream right-wing parties have historically maintained a cordon sanitaire around the far-right, with analysts saying French conservatives generally prefer ambiguity or abstention over formal alliances.

Pressure on Macron’s centrist bloc

Parties aligned with President Emmanuel Macron, including Renaissance, Horizons and MoDem, entered the race without a unified strategy.

Renaissance leader Gabriel Attal said the presidential camp could secure “over 100 mayoralties,” a modest figure compared with the country’s more than 35,000 communes and far below the entrenched networks of traditional parties.

In Bordeaux, the race remains tight after the first round, with Green incumbent Pierre Hurmic neck and neck with centrist candidate Thomas Cazenave.

In other areas, centrist candidates barely cleared the threshold to remain in the race, while some were eliminated outright.

In Lille, centrist candidate Violette Spillebout received 11.14%, while far-right RN candidate Matthieu Valet garnered 10.92%.

By contrast, figures with strong local political bases before joining Macron’s camp performed more solidly.

Former Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is leading in Pau with 34% of the vote but faces a three-way race.

Edouard Philippe, another former prime minister, secured a strong position in Le Havre with 44%, heading into the second round – a closely watched contest that could carry national significance given his profile as a potential centrist contender for the 2027 presidential race.

Early signals for 2027 presidential race

Across France, political leaders swiftly framed the municipal election results in national terms, casting them as an early indicator of the balance of power ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.

RN President Jordan Bardella signaled momentum for the far-right, declaring: “Change will not wait until 2027, it begins next Sunday.”

Analysts say the outcome suggests a gradual return to a more traditional left-right divide, with Macron’s centrist bloc increasingly squeezed between two competing political poles.

On the left, rivalry is intensifying between the Socialist Party (PS) and La France Insoumise (LFI) over leadership of the progressive camp, while the Greens in several cities are attempting to position themselves as a unifying force.

On the right, Les Republicains (LR) face mounting pressure from RN, which continues to draw both voters and candidates from the conservative base.

Meanwhile, several key local contests are closely linked to potential presidential ambitions. Observers point to former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe’s performance in Le Havre as a crucial test of his credibility as a prospective 2027 contender.