• Biggest test for European defense will be ‘winning over the public,’ warns Braw
• Europe has to ‘innovate in thinking about national service,’ says Atlantic Council expert Elisabeth Braw

ISTANBUL

France’s recent decision to revive national service has become the latest sign of a broader shift across Europe, where governments are rearming and redesigning their defense systems in response to a worsening security environment and uncertainty over future US support.

French President Emmanuel Macron last week unveiled a 10-month voluntary military service program for men and women, with a goal of reaching 50,000 recruits annually by 2035.

Nearly three decades after France abolished mandatory service, young volunteers aged 18-19 will begin joining next year – a move the government says will help strengthen national resilience.

But France is far from alone. Much of Europe is witnessing a wave of conscription reforms, expanding volunteer pathways, and record-high military budgets, largely accelerated by the war between Russia and Ukraine.

A continent revisiting conscription

Several European countries – including Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden – have long maintained some form of national service. But recent years have brought a dramatic expansion or revival of these programs.

Latvia reintroduced mandatory service for men, with voluntary entry for women, in 2024. Denmark followed in July 2025, extending conscription to women for the first time and lengthening service to 11 months. Norway and Sweden already require both men and women to serve.

In October, Croatia also announced it would restore mandatory military service after nearly 18 years of suspension.

Other European states are strengthening voluntary systems.

On Nov. 12, Belgium announced it sent nearly 149,000 letters to 17-year-olds inviting them to apply for a revamped voluntary service program, with training to begin next September.

Poland launched its largest-ever voluntary military training initiative in early November, aiming to recruit up to 400,000 people through 2026.

At the end of August, Germany also passed a new military service law intended to secure a target of 270,000 voluntary recruits by 2035.

Beginning in 2026, all young men born in 2008 or later must complete a questionnaire assessing their suitability for service – a measure that could enable future call-ups if volunteer numbers fall short.

Defense innovations amid ‘deteriorating’ security

Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative, said European governments are rediscovering a basic challenge – people cannot decide whether they wish to serve if they have never experienced the military in any form.

“What we have seen in the past four or five years is that countries are saying recruitment of professional soldiers alone doesn’t work,” she told Anadolu. “We have to innovate in thinking about national service.”

Braw said most modern armed forces neither need nor can absorb the kind of mass conscription seen in past decades – calling all men, for instance. This is pushing countries toward designing new models for national service.

“This is driven by the fact that security in Europe is deteriorating. We need larger armed forces, we need better, and we need stronger defense. And to get that, you have to innovate,” she said.

Whether voluntary national service can deliver enough people remains uncertain, she said.

“I think the countries where people are most alert and informed about threats will have the most success in recruiting or in implementing national service programs.”

For governments, she argued, transparency about the threat environment is essential.

“If people don't know how serious the threats facing our countries are, then why would they be interested or motivated to be part of any sort of defense effort?” she added.

Braw said Russia remains the primary driver of Europe’s paradigm shift on defense.

“It is primarily Russia, but the global security situation is deteriorating,” she added, warning that instability elsewhere could create additional pressures.

Accelerating overall defense spending

Alongside the service reforms, Europe is dramatically increasing defense budgets.

At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies – with Spain as the notable exception – committed to spending 5% of GDP annually on core defense requirements and security-related investments by 2035.

Allies have already scrambled to meet the existing 2% GDP benchmark, with spending rising sharply – 9.3% in 2023, 18.6% in 2024 and an estimated 15.9% in 2025.

Separately, the European Commission’s ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan, unveiled in March, aims to mobilize up to €800 billion ($929 billion) in defense spending over the next five years.

In October, the bloc also announced the European Drone Defense Initiative – originally described as a “Drone Wall” – to build a continent-wide network of sensors, jamming systems and anti-drone weapons.

Individual states are moving in parallel.

Germany plans to spend €377 billion ($439 billion) for new military procurement under its 2026 budget, part of its drive to build “the strongest conventional army in Europe,” according to a Politico report.

In July, Macron announced that France will double its defense budget by 2027 compared with 2017 levels, pledging €64 billion ($74 billion).

Meanwhile, Poland’s 2026 draft budget earmarks nearly $55 billion for defense – its largest-ever allocation.

Winning public support remains the ‘biggest test’

A September report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warned that pressure to develop a “more sovereign” European defense capability has intensified amid the war in Ukraine and uncertainty over future US commitments.

It noted that strategic assessments across Europe differ on how quickly Russian forces could pose a direct threat, but most fall within a two-to-five-year window – “a very short time horizon for defense-capability development.”

The push for further increases comes after a period of rapid growth, with European defense spending already more than 50% higher in nominal terms than in 2022, the report said.

Yet Braw believes no amount of spending or planning will succeed unless governments can persuade their publics of the need.

“It’s not comfortable for politicians to tell the public that the situation is difficult. We face threats that could, in different ways, cripple our society,” she said.

Braw warned that if authorities are not transparent about the deteriorating security situation, people will question why so much is being spent on defense.

“If you can bring the public with you, then I think many European countries, NATO countries, have the ability and potential to defend themselves better,” she said.

She also backed the recent controversial remarks by French Chief of the Defense Staff Gen. Fabien Mandon, who said societies must “accept losing their children” in a conflict, and that France must be ready for a clash within three to four years.

“What he was saying is uncomfortable, but it’s good that he dared to say it,” Braw argued. “He wasn’t saying anything incorrect … he was being deliberately super honest.”

“The unfortunate reality,” she warned, “is that if we fail to defend our countries, what he articulated will come to pass.”